Rafael Grillo

Online Ad Revenues Up: Is the Worst Over?

In a tough economic situation, advertisers indeed cut their advertising budgets. But they don’t eliminate them. They can’t afford to. They need to keep selling! If any, as an advertiser you re-direct your reduced budget to the most effective touchpoint you have available. If you had campaigns going in different mediums, you focus on the most effective ones and cut the rest. Search advertising raises to the top in a situation like this. And If you had campaigns going in Google, Yahoo and Microsoft, you cut the last two and put all your money behind Google. I expect to see an increase in Google's share in the forthcoming quarters.

If Only Hope Were an Investment Strategy

Great comments! There are no bullish signs out there. None. There is not reason for the stock market to go up. More and more, the not-so-long-ago unthinkable scenario of Dow 6500 becomes a possibility. At some point, I even considered the 8000's very unlikely. Yet, I have to agree that some stock prices have reached an almost surreal level. It feels like we are heading towards a dramatic depression. And yet, folks, I truly believe a depression like the 30's has been averted. The recession will follow its course: people will curl in their homes waiting for end of the times, a few strong companies will take the opportunitiy to strengthen their positions, and after a few months, we will realize the sun still come up everyday and we will go out and re-ignite the economy again. I am not trying to under-estimate the challenges ahead. But I think the worst part of the financial crisis is behind us. It is re-construction time. Taxes will have to raise, we will have to curtail our consumption, interest rates will have to go up (think 3%) and a few inefficient companies will have to disappear (think auto industry). This has been an economic earthquake. The plaques had to reacommodate and the pressure liberated. The pain is not over. But tthe overall stock prices, at these levels, are pricing this adjustment. We will be in a 7500-9500 trading range until next summer. Dow 10,000 by third quarter next year, and then, slow growth. Expect the new Government to launch a national initiative to re-energize the country behind renewable energy. Get positions in wind, solar and nuclear at some point during the next quarter, but be prepared to sell. That is going to be the next short-term bubble; after that, they'll become a solid investment for the long haul. Pollyannish? Perhaps. But I think we are rather rattled by the violence of this correction. We've had in a couple of months what took two years and a terrorist attack to unravel in 2000-2002. There is light at the end of the tunnel. And, by the way, Toro and I must have the same portfolio: I am sure if I sell now, this was the bottom; and if I don' sell, we will get to Dow 6,500 :-).

On Yahoo/ Microsoft: Jerry Yang Should Be Fired

Interesting action on YHOO today. It seesm the doom and gloom scenario didn't play out. The market is waiting for Act II and I think we will se more of this MSFT-YHOO deal. bill d: hold onto those options. You may break even. In any case, I seriously doubt YHOO has any significant future. As per MSFT, I think their corporate culture is way screwed up as to ever build a significant presence in the Web. The would simply smother anything they touch. Gosh, even their software is flailing! (Vista anyone?)

What Should Microsoft Buy Instead?

Extraordinary article! In all the intensity of this Yahoo-Microsoft almost-deal, we might have forgotten to ask the most relevant question in the first place: why does Microsoft need Yahoo? Which is to say, how come Microsoft, with all its might, has been unable to build a relevant, coherent Web presence by itself? In part, this link to an incredible video in YouTube entitled "Microsoft Re-Designs the Ipod Packaging" explains it: www.youtube.com/watch?...

Microsoft has grown to be a soul-less corporation that has lost touch with what consumers value today. Yahoo is not far behind -hence its woes-. The difference between these two companies and the portfolio mentioned in your article is that the latter includes true representatives of the Web 2.0 ethos: nimble, personal, creative, emotional. I am afraid Microsoft's corporate culture will simply smother everything it touches. It is good that the deal Yahoo-Microsotf didn't take place: most likely, it would have been another AOL-Time Warner or Sprint-Nextel.