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Rakesh Saxena  

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  • GE's Dilemma: Sensible Business vs. Rating at Any Cost [View article]
    Thanks for your comment p4jain. The dividend factor has always to be factored in when shorting. In brief, what is the profit target after all costs and dues? But you have a point--the 7% factor is what, in my opinion, sustaining GE's stock price. - Rakesh

    On Jan 02 06:50 AM p4jain wrote:

    > Rakesh, I agree with shorting GE and staying short. But shorting
    > GE with a dividend of 7% and holding shorts till mid 2009 means you
    > are going to PAY significant dividend shorting GE. However, shorting
    > SPY and ETF are good idea or buying SKF is better. No dividends.
    > How do you deal with paying the dividends for the shorts you hold?
    Jan 2, 2009. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Unraveling: Stay Short Emerging Markets [View article]
    Dear HaavBline: In response to your question about infrastructure projects being shelved (rather delayed and delayed), part of the problem is that the machinery to implement many of them is simply not there; then there are those regular activist protests against dams and factories on rural land, rampant corruption, and vested political interests. When you put all that together, you can grasp the point: there are so many incomplete projects, that new announcements are meaningless, regardless of size. Many thanks - Rakesh

    On Jan 01 10:49 PM HaavBline wrote:

    > Thanks for a good report on a local situation. It is true the case
    > in India could be happening in many emerging markets, however, different
    > countries have different strengths and weakness, and will have different
    > policy response and different capabilities to adapt to the sea change
    > in global economoic environment. China, India, Mexico are producing
    > countries that should benefit from sharply lowered commodity prices,
    > Russia, Brazill, Middle Ease may suffer more.
    > The Indian response about infrastructure spending reported by Rakesh
    > puzzles me. Why are projects shelved when India needs to stimulate
    > domestic spending? Why did India announce a paltry $8B stimulus package?
    > (Why bother to announce it?) This seems to be very different policy
    > responses from most other countries. India's balance sheet may not
    > be golden, but as far as I know it is not in dire strait either.
    > So I wonder what the Indian central & state goverments are doing?
    > I agree about the Obama factor, market seems to WANT TO warm UP to
    > the expectations of the big stimulus package. It probably will be
    > announced soon after he takes office in late January, then we will
    > see what happen. Market willl probably be dogged by questions about
    > the financing and viability of that package afterwards.
    > Another reader made a good observation responding to another article:
    > From the standpoint of purchasing power parity (or considering PP
    > differences in China & US), even a $1T Obama stimulus package
    > will have somewhat less impact to the US than the $580B Chinese stimulus
    > package will have to China.
    Jan 2, 2009. 03:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wrong Great Depression Lessons Will Haunt Equities in 2009 [View article]
    Thanks. I will get my hands on the book shortly. - Rakesh

    On Dec 31 01:02 PM Debt Junkie Scum wrote:

    > Rakesh,
    > Have you read the book The Final Crash?
    > Here are a few choice quotes:
    > 'It appears that we may be facing a meltdown rather than just a temporary
    > slowdown, perhaps the greatest since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.'
    > 'Debt is utterly endemic throughout western economies: not just at
    > government level but for individuals, corporations and financial
    > markets alike.'
    > 'It could prove to be the final crash for western stock markets as
    > they wither in proportion to the deflating economies they represent.'
    > 'The bursting of the 1980s property bubble hamstrung the Japanese
    > financial system as banks became completely risk averse and ceased
    > to lend money: activity ground to a halt. This is they key weakness
    > of a debt-driven economy where constant new loans are required to
    > continue the charade whereby growth is not organic but artificial.'
    > 'A catch-22 situation exists whereby consumer spending is supported
    > by consumer confidence which is supported in turn by higher house
    > prices and home equity extraction.'
    > 'The knock-on effect of a generational low in interest rates has
    > inflated every asset to the hilt: there is now nothing left to pump.
    > When the final crash comes, every active participant in the primary
    > and secondary bubble areas will be blown away. A deflationary pin-prick
    > now looms large.'
    > Happy New Year to you!!!
    Jan 2, 2009. 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Unraveling: Stay Short Emerging Markets [View article]
    Thanks Investor88. There is little doubt that the current behaviour of the equity and bond marketplace is contradicting extremely strong bearish fundamentals. And then there are the Obama bounces which are more than likely this month. It is indeed a difficult environment to trade short on leverage; but the bearish bias must remain intact. - Rakesh

    On Jan 01 09:24 AM investor88 wrote:

    > I salute Rakesk for not only giving logical well researched view
    > but acting on it [short EEM]. There is now a flood of bullish calls
    > for a turn around in 2009 [in SA, everywhere you look] -- on balance
    > I place more weight on Rakesh's opinions unless the markets show
    > otherwise.
    Jan 1, 2009. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Those Illusory Stimulus Packages [View article]
    Yes, DaveW--this is a typo--probably an error at my end. I assume one of our friends at SA will pick this message--Many thanks - Rakesh

    On Dec 21 12:09 PM DaveW wrote:

    > "Disclosure: Author holds long positions in QQQQ and SPY"
    > Typo most likely, author is Short QQQQ and SPY based on many recent
    > posts.
    Dec 21, 2008. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Goldman Sachs Heading to $20? [View article]

    On Nov 11 09:04 AM Thomas Lloyd wrote:

    > I think you are on target. However, the wild card in your assumtions
    > is Obama. Being and advisior for him will have some perks.

    Yes Thomas. The Obama "wild card" applies to a number of equity and bond scenarios. Interesting issue, demanding further analysis. Many thanks - Rakesh
    Nov 11, 2008. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity to Sell Into China's Illusory Stimulus Package [View article]

    On Nov 10 10:18 PM Tony Petroski wrote:

    > I don;t understand how an economy growing at 8% a year, down from
    > 12%, needs a "stimulus," nor how such a country can have stock values
    > down 75% and more. Can we trust the word of the communists or not?

    Dear Tony: Your concerns are genuine. Why does China need a stimulus package in the first place? Economists should be asking that question. And why did stocks tank when the GDP is still at record levels, relatively? These are fundamental questions which need to be answered before making any longer term case on China, bullish or bearish. Many thanks - Rakesh
    Nov 11, 2008. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch Downgrades Reaffirm the Case to Exit Eastern Europe [View article]

    On Nov 10 08:36 AM echotoall wrote:

    > why in the world would you or anyone take note of anything a rating
    > agency states after all that has happened?
    > their opinion is worthless, and again very late to the game.

    Dear echotoall: You are correct in stating that the rating agencies are coming late to the party. But, with respect to Eastern Europe, the discreet point I am making is that the rating agencies continue to speak in "general" terms like debt and deficits, without addressing the fundamentals. Just a caution to those who continue to position themselves based on ratings. Many thanks - Rakesh
    Nov 10, 2008. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity to Sell Into China's Illusory Stimulus Package [View article]

    On Nov 10 09:49 AM 20smoney wrote:

    > China is a great buy right now

    Dear 20smoney: I am not making an overall bullish or bearish case on China. The short window I am focusing on has to do entirely with the real impact of the stimulus package on the stock markets, i.e. a single-purpose trading opportunity. Many thanks - Rakesh
    Nov 10, 2008. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovereign Default Outlook Causes Panic in CDS Market [View article]
    Thanks Ben. I will check these BIS numbers for you when I can call them this coming week, but the US$1.4 trillion figure is wrong, perhaps dated. The International Swap and Derivatives Association estimate is US$60 trillion notional, and this figure does not account for the huge additional non-CDS default risk insurance contracts currently outstanding. That said, my estimate is based on the proportion of sovereign insurance trades indicated by market makers over the previous year or so, and that estimate stands to be corrected if other facts come to light. - Rakesh
    Oct 25, 2008. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Rollover Risk Supports Short Trade [View article]
    Thanks Russell. I will go through the financial statements again, particularly on the "maturity mismatch" issue, and change my position if need be. -Rakesh
    Oct 25, 2008. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mythical Creatures: Unicorns and Libor [View article]
    Excellent, brief explanation of Libor.
    Oct 14, 2008. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Can We Bring Down Libor? [View article]
    Felix: Before one gets to the challenge of brining down LIBOR, it is critical to ask the question: does the behaviour of the TED spread actually reflects the much-needed revaluation of risk within the financial system? If the answer is YES, then central bank intervention in the LIBOR rate will only lead to further technical misalignments in risk pricing. - Rakesh
    Oct 9, 2008. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment