Rakesh Saxena

Israel ETFs and the Gaza Factor

Thanks freefall51. I am getting to work now after the long weekend. - Rakesh


On Jan 19 05:27 PM freefall51 wrote:

> Rakesh,
>
> you master an amazing spectrum of issues. I am always waiting for
> your next one. Very good.
>

Israel ETFs and the Gaza Factor

Dear AJB7: You provide a good perspective and I will certainly reconsider the Iran factor in the light of your comments. I am waiting to study the internal situation there in depth over the next few days and will write on the Iran issue shortly, not only with respect to Israel but also with respect to oil (Straits of Hormuz) and Iraq. Many thanks - Rakesh


On Jan 16 09:04 PM AJB7 wrote:

> A quite interesting article with originality of thought. I particularly
> appreciated the discussion of the TA-25 index prospects, as I have
> held short postions in Israeli ETFs in the past. Personally, however,
> I am not quite as convinced that Israel's economic prospects can
> be so clearly divided from its geo-political realities as Saxena
> assumes. Briefly, any region so regularly engulfed in minor and major
> wars for the last half century must have these probabilities taken
> into account for the future, both on a long and short term basis.
> In my opinion at least, the last chance that there could have been
> a major settlement of these disputes was missed (by both sides in
> my opinion) at Camp David in 2000. Political and military realities
> have only worsened since then, so it is unlikely that there will
> be an permanent peace in this region for any forseeable future that
> I can see.
>
> Secondly, as I understand it, one strength of the Israeli economy
> is US subsidies of various sorts. But perhaps inperceptibly at present,
> there is a growing questioning of this support in some circles. The
> book the Israeli Lobby was one indication of this, but a larger question
> occuring to some people is simply what is the current strategic value
> of Israel to the US, certainly compared to its costs in a wider geopolitical
> framework. In a private conversation with one very senior security
> official in the Clinton administration, it was admited to me that
> there was none, other than perhaps the need to stand with an ally
> to assure other allies that the US support is unwavering in all circumstances.
> Still, while I do not believe Obama is "anti-Isreal"... as he was
> sometimes portrayed in the campaign, should these private questionings
> grow public, long term financial support to Israel cannot be taken
> for granted. Israel after all, is not the 51st state.
>
> Finally, Saxena's perspective on the dangers from Iran is counter
> to a widely helf political perspective, that countries facing internal
> discord or malcontent seek to create foreign enemy scapegoats to
> divert domestic attention, a viewpoint best portrayed in Orwell's
> novel 1984. If this viewpoint is correct (as I believe it is), not
> only will Iran not be preoccupied by its internal troubles, it is
> likely to heighten tensions with Israel in an ideological sense,
> and very likely with a blackmail threat of a nuclear bomb on an intermediate
> range missle. Not a particularly good investment environment.