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Ralph Shell

 
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  • Weaker Commodity Prices To Weigh On The Euro
    Tue, Oct. 14 FXE, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • European fears of inflation are giving way to worrisome concern about deflation. Lower food and energy costs will not help.
    • Crude oil is now 20% down from this year's high. Is there a secret US-Saudi pact to hurt the Russians and Iranians with even lower crude?
    • What will it take for the ECB, the Bundesbank and the EU to get along? Dissension seems to be growing.
  • Is Support For Abenomics Waning?
    Fri, Oct. 10 JYN, YCL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The USD appreciated to 110 versus the yen but has since retreated. This is giving the appearance of a market reversal.
    • Japanese economic planners have found a weaker yen has not kindled renewed growth as had been expected. Some groups are also being hurt by the weaker currency.
    • Are the yen super bears ignoring the decades of accumulated wealth that has been invested in global securities as well as production plants through out the world?
  • Energy Prices Weigh On The Loonie
    Fri, Oct. 3 UNG, USO, FXC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • A strong USD may be helping to weaken crude values, and in the process, this weakens the Canadian Dollar.
    • There is going to be a period of explosive growth in the trade of liquid natural gas. Canada is not prepared to participate despite massive natural gas reserves.
    • Is it possible the crude supply glut combined with tepid global demand will take the crude market 10/20 dollars per barrel lower?
  • October Numbers Should Keep Forex Markets Volatile
    Mon, Sep. 29 FXE, EUO, ERO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Pending October reports are expected to confirm the existing trends in the forex markets. Any possibility of an October surprise?
    • The euro futures trade at the CME now accounts for almost 30% of the total currency futures trade. The bear euro market is hardly an undiscovered trade.
    • Did Bernd Lucke and emergence of his Alternative fur Duetschland Party weigh on the euro this past week?
  • Did Mark Carney Derail Scotland's Dalliance With Independence?
    Sun, Sep. 14 FXB, GBB 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney insists an independent Scotland would not be entitled to use sterling, without substantial reserves, as its currency.
    • All major banks and other financial institutions threaten to move their headquarters to England if the Yes vote prevails.
    • Scottish National Party official warns the "casino days" are over for the banks, and operators in the oil fields will be nationalized.
  • Trading Volume Soars In Currency Futures - USD Demand Continues
    Thu, Sep. 11 UUP, UDN, FORX Comment!

    Summary

    • Demand for the USD continues as the speculative trade in the euro and the yen results in buying versus the greenback.
    • Currently the currency trade is so active, the daily trade is almost equal to the total OI.
    • Yields on the US ten year have gone from under 2.40% to 2.535% at today's auction of $21B. Are currency traders misinterpreting this strength?
  • Japanese Yen Falls To Lowest Since 2008, Euro Lowest Since July 2013
    Sat, Sep. 6 FXY, FXE, UUP Comment!

    Summary

    • Yesterday's futures trade in the euro approached 500K contracts. The open interest grew in options and futures, as the specs expanded their positions.
    • The Japanese yen sold at the lowest level to the USD since 2008. How much of this was caused by buying in the USD versus euro sales?
    • August US employment numbers fell well short of expectations. The number of working age US citizens no longer looking for work is 92,269,000, a new record.
  • Will This Week's Data Dump Help The Euro Bears?
    Sat, Sep. 6 FXE, UUP, UDN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Meaningful reports at the first of the month have the potential to move the markets.
    • The short position in the EURUSD is near record levels. Are the shorts in danger of a short squeeze?
    • The yield seekers who bought Spanish and Italian bonds last year have big profits, but do currency losses threaten their losses?
  • Which Currency Trends Will Continue Into September?
    Fri, Aug. 29 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Equity markets as well as bonds have participated in a bull markets over the past year. How much longer will they both participate?
    • Confronted with continual geopolitical tension, and seemingly increasing conflict, why has the crude market sold off?
    • The EURUSD trade is loaded with shorts, but bond yields favor the USD by a wide margin. Is anyone ready to buy German bunds yielding .95% as a safe haven?
  • Central Bankers Chat - Can We Buy The Loonie?
    Sun, Aug. 24 FXC, UDN, UUP 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Comments from the central bankers in Jackson Hole Wyoming reassure the army of USD bulls. The combined yen and euro short versus the USD now tops 325K futures contracts.
    • Canadian retail sales recovery to over 1% in latest month. How much higher would the retail number be if 55 million Canadians did not cross the US border to shop?
    • British Columbia real estate sales for the last year shows a significant demand from mainland China.
  • Is This Another False Breakout In The JPYUSD?
    Thu, Aug. 21 UUP, FXY, YCS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Once again the haven buyers found the yen to be an unreliable safe destination.
    • US money supply is about to slow its rate of growth and the yen supply may well increase.
    • Traders think a 20 year JGB yielding 1.342% has value and the bond could appreciate - only in Japan. There are better values elsewhere.
  • Pound Weakness May Be A Setup To Buy
    Wed, Aug. 13 FXB, GBB 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Pound continues under pressure as the employment and wage numbers fall short of bullish hopes.
    • Economic success in Britain is attracting migration from the Continent as the unemployed there seek work in England. Increased job seekers may be hindering wage increases in the UK.
    • Estimates of the rate of economic growth forthcoming soon in the EU, will show a slow growth economy flirting with deflation.
  • Changes In The Japanese Ministry Of Finance To Weaken Yen?
    Fri, Jul. 25 FXY, UUP, UDN 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Japanese yen speculators have been short the yen, without success, for all of 2014. Their collective position has been reduced but they are still short over 75K futures contracts.
    • Safe haven buyers continue to regard the yen as a place to park money in times of geopolitical turmoil, but is this correct?
    • Will a new Ministry of Finance appointee with intervention experience contain any yen rallies?
  • Euro Sinks Under 1.35 Support - What Next?
    Thu, Jul. 24 ERO Comment!

    Summary

    • Despite currency specs heavily committed to the short side of the euro, the trade is going their way.
    • Pressure for additional economic sanctions on EU trade with Russia because of their involvement in the Ukraine may cripple their weak economic recovery.
    • Who holds the estimated $600B of external Russian corporate debt? What is the future for the joint venture energy projects?
  • Poor Canadian Employment Numbers Jolt The Loonie
    Fri, Jul. 11 FXC, UUP, UDN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Ontario lost 34K jobs last month. Factory employment is now the lowest on record.
    • Things are not going well in the Alberta oil patch. Chinese buyers may be finding acquisition of oil sands properties is easier than managing them.
    • Will the Bank of Canada Governor again try to talk the loonie lower at the central bank meeting this Wednesday?
  • Did Last Week's Data Give Us Any Clues For The Euro's Direction?
    Tue, Jul. 8 FXE, EUO, ERO Comment!

    Summary

    • The US NFP Report was well received by markets last week. The details of the report do not seem to support the enthusiasm.
    • US equities continue to forge ahead but this is of little benefit to almost 90% of the population. The US consumer cannot support growth with increased spending.
    • France, the second biggest economy in the EU, is slipping away into another recession. Still, they are marching forward with the Teutonic austerity economic plan. Will Europe never learn?
  • Can Abe's Financial Balm Overcome Negative Demography?
    Mon, Jun. 23 FXY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • PM Abe's policies have resulted in an initial boost to their economy, will it continue?
    • Foreign ownership of Japanese equities rose to 30.8% of the market at the end of the 1st quarter, and 60% of total volume during the past year.
    • Have foreign buyers been front-running the anticipated shift from JGBs to domestic and foreign equities?
    • Yen shorts remain patient as they anticipate serious long-term problems.
  • Is The Australian Dollar Move Over, Or Merely Beginning?
    Sun, Jun. 15 FXA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Lower commodity prices and slower Chinese demand may have been anticipated by the Australian Dollar traders.
    • European and Japanese monetary stimulus will result in large amount of low interest funds seeking the higher returns in Australia.
    • Strong properties market in Australia means the Reserve Bank cannot lower the current bank rate.
  • Traders Hope Reports Will Increase Volatility
    Mon, Jun. 2 UUP, UDN, FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • This week will feature numerous reports from the EU and the US, and to a lesser extent the UK.
    • Will any of these reports jolt the markets from the current trading levels?
    • Confronted with a slowing economy in Germany, will the Bundesbank reduce their objections to a monetary stimulus?
  • Dare We Sell The British Pound?
    Wed, May. 28 FXB, FXE, UUP 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The bull run in the pound is lengthy... Can it continue or should it be sold?
    • EU skeptic and anti-EU immigration voters send UKIP to top, besting Labor and Conservatives.
    • Continent voters including France and Italy vote against German austerity. Will this hasten stimulus from the ECB?
  • Is The Loonie Swoon Really Over?
    Wed, May. 21 FXC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Speculators remain short the Canadian dollar but are market conditions changing?
    • The depreciated Canadian dollar is aiding exports of energy, auto parts and capital goods.
    • Wealthy potential immigrants worth billions are on the waiting list to move to Canada.
  • Slow European Economy Building Hopes For Broad ECB Stimulants
    Mon, May. 19 FXE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • French, Italian economies slow 1st quarter raising hopes for a meaningful stimulus package.
    • Italy, with 1.7 Trillion euro debt, is especially at risk.
    • Euro ends the week poorly.
    • COT report this PM shows the big traders flipped to the short side of the euro.
  • Will The Japanese Numbers Weigh On The Yen?
    Thu, May. 15 FXY, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • The market is expecting good first quarter economic numbers, but can they be sustained?
    • Japan depends on exports and China receives up to 25% of the total. What will the demand be if their economy slows?
    • What will the yield be on Japanese Government Bonds if the inflation rate goes to 2%?
  • More Money Flows To Support The Euro?
    Mon, May. 12 FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • EURUSD had key reversal on Thursday followed by more Friday selling.
    • Draghi reveals money flight from Russia much bigger than reported.
    • Russian Central Bank aggressively buying rubles and selling hard currencies. Reserves may now be overstated.
  • Does The Canadian Dollar Deserve Its Recent Strength?
    Thu, May. 8 UUP, UDN, FXC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Canadian dollar has not responded to recent bearish reports.
    • Selling in the USD may have made the Canadian dollar look good.
    • The prime minister's vision of Canada as an energy super power has opposition.
  • How Long Will The USD Bears Keep Selling?
    Thu, May. 1 UUP, UDN, FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • Speculator selling in the USD has been weighing on currency markets since June 2013.
    • Today's US numbers are disappointing but bulls promise the next quarter will improve.
    • Experts: Look for the energy revolution in the US that will give the USD a big boost.
  • Weekly Forex Review And A Look At The Pending Reports/Events
    Mon, Apr. 28 UUP, UDN, FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • Geopolitical events and myriad of economic reports will make for an interesting week in forex.
    • Should European inflation rates continue to contract, will that result in more than just talk from the ECB?
    • How much of the growing British economy is already discounted in the market?
  • Changes In Allocation Of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming
    Thu, Apr. 24 FXY, UUP, UDN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Japan's government pension fund is about to reallocate investments in its $1.2 Trillion Investment Portfolio.
    • Will other Japanese portfolio managers with very large sums follow their investment leads?
    • It looks like the yen will suffer with the reallocation of investments.
  • When Does The Euro Break Out Of Its Range?
    Thu, Apr. 17 FXE, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Reason why political turmoil may not have big input to the value of the Euro.
    • European Banks have big loan exposure in Russia.
    • There is confusion on the ground in the Ukraine and more confusion at the diplomatic table.
  • What's Next For The Kiwi?
    Fri, Apr. 4 ENZL, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The New Zealand Dollar has enjoyed a healthy advance. Wlll it last?
    • IMF says the Kiwi is 4% to 15% overvalued.
    • Energy and Resources Minister opens large blocks for energy development.
  • Busy Week For Data Releases Should Result In Forex Volatility
    Wed, Apr. 2 FXP, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Pending British economic reports may result in pound volatility.
    • Speculators are big owners of pound futures contracts.
    • Have a trade plan ready should markets get volatile.
  • Is Mrs. Watanabe Buying Gold?
    Mon, Mar. 31 FXY, FXB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Japanese prepare for new consumption tax.
    • Consumption tax sparks gold demand.
    • Longer term there are serious problems with Abenomics and the value of the yen.