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Ralph Shell

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  • Time To Sell The Yen [View article]
    Anything is possible with enough liquidity. I fear, however, there may be strong economic head winds in the US, in case economic fundamentals is still a market driver.
    Feb 21 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So The Yen Remains A Safe Haven: Really? [View article]
    This is a comment from the Telegraph and coming from the Economic Forum in Davos about the value of the yuan :

    "The moment the Chinese authorities open up the capital account and make the RMB convertible there will be a rush of money abroad. That will unleash captive funds in property that have nowhere else to go, and could trigger a disorderly fall in real estate prices, and much else besides. So the government will not do it yet."

    This implies a lower yuan but it looks like this will be deferred years and conditions might change by then.
    Jan 26 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt Soars To New Record [View article]
    True, the Japanese debt is mostly owned by the Japanese, but will the Japanese bond holders want to continue holding Japanese bonds yielding only .65% for the ten year if Abe has success running the inflation rate up to 2%. Perhaps the first clue to a global distrust of bonds will be a flight of Japanese capital to higher yielding countries.

    The problem with dumping the USD as your reserve currency means you must have a better choice for those funds. There are not many alternatives to the USD that are unblemished, and can absorb a massive movement of capital.
    Oct 21 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Loonie Fails To Fall [View article]
    The coming commodity boom may be in LNG, one of the reasons for the interest in Cheniere Energy. (LNG)
    Oct 9 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Economy Really Growing Faster Than The Canadian Economy? [View article]
    I do not wish to imply that I condone the changes in the government's calculation in the GDP. Frankly I am concerned about the tax impact of these changes. If research and development can no longer be treated as a current expenses, but must now be capitalized, this will raise taxes. So is this change a tax increase?

    There may be more to these changes that initially reported. Could this be part of the administration's grand bargain to reduce US corporate taxes from the highest rate in the world?.

    Like it or not, it is best not to fight the government, like the Fed, in the market.
    Aug 1 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Markets Respond To NFP Report [View article]
    I too, have my doubts about the sustainability of the rally in US debt yields. The economy recovery propelled by the growth in part timers will be limited. This, combined with slow growth in China and no growth in Europe, makes me question the assumption, the global economy is on the recovery road.

    The Bernanke taper will remain a distant event.
    Jul 6 07:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Close To Selling The USD? [View article]
    Looking at the COT report released Friday afternoon, there has been a substantial build in the spec long USD short almost everything. The biggest short is in the yen, and the second biggest, surprisingly, is in the pound.

    Regarding the yen, economic Minister Akira Amari when asked about the value of the yen on a talk show this weekend said he did not know but "it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed. If the yen keeps on weakening a lot more, it will have a negative impact on peoples' lives."

    Makes sense to me but we will see.
    May 19 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Yen Making Commences Next Week [View article]
    Sorry the Japanese debt is probably closer to $13T than the $23T.
    If you figure $40K per capita income time 128M population times 245% of the GDP you are then a shade less than $13T.

    The $23T number came from an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard column in the Telegraph written this week from Tokyo.

    Does he know some thing we do not?
    Mar 28 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Irish Recovery? [View article]
    Thank you for your comments. I certainly agree that Ireland is paying a heavy price because the government assumed responsibility for bad private sector loans. There needs to be a write down of these bad loans by the EU, and should be sought after more aggressively by the current government. The EU is playing hardball and the Irish government is just being nice.

    Ireland benefits from a well educated population endowed with a strong work ethic. Combine this with export advantages and there will be a recovery here.

    But considering the weak Irish recovery, however, it does not bode well for a quick rebound in southern Europe. Austerity may get Merkel reelected, but a high price will be paid by the debtor countries.

    Jan 10 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Draghi's Comments Move The Euro Down Today? [View article]
    Hi Tony,
    Looks to me like resistance starts at the 1.2995 area first. Take this out and you are looking at the 1.3030 to 1.3060 area.

    As we approach the holiday season volatility usually contracts, but with so many unsettled political issues, that may not be the case this year.

    Decent NFP numbers Friday might mean Bernanke will wait for QE3 expansion.

    OI stands for the amount of open futures contracts, or the open interest at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
    Dec 8 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Japan Intervene To Weaken The Yen? [View article]
    There is no doubt that Japanese companies, hindered in their export efforts by the strong yen, are instead taking advantage of the strong currency to make acquisitions and export capital. According to a Bloomberg story, they spent $88B on 2011 purchases, and are approaching that amount in 2012.

    The $20B purchase of 70% of Sprint recently announced, will take this years tally of purchases above $80B.
    Oct 15 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • German Court Approves Bailouts, Yet Euro Problems Remain [View article]
    The pound had a nice run versus the yen today. We will see if the BOJ can help next week.
    Sep 14 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Fails To Provide Solutions To The Debt Crises [View article]
    You ask a real good question, and the answer will take time to evolve.

    There is a good article today about Merkel and her support:
    Aug 7 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anticipating Next Week's Currency Drivers [View article]
    Good question. The US economic data was OK today. I think maybe Bernanke will wait until after the ECB Conference and maybe want to save his plans for the Jackson Hole Bankers Meeting in late August. A late August surprise.
    Jul 31 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can We Believe The Chinese Economic Numbers? [View article]
    Agree there is suspected prevarication in the US reports, especially those that report on employment changes. The revisions are then released months later when they think no one is paying attention.
    Jul 14 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment