Comments on Ram Krishnan's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/ram-krishnan/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/103480-iphone-a-platform-for-the-masses?source=feed#comment-364756 364756 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 00:13:39 -0500 likely to own an iPhone. Single person household with 60K(like a 20 something girl) have the disposable income and are chique enough to own an iPhone.
Older executive men opt for Blackberry. Getting an iPhone and abandoning dialup are probably not correlated.
People who want to be cool or think they are cool own an iPhone.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103480-iphone-a-platform-for-the-masses?source=feed#comment-297513 297513 Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:47:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103480-iphone-a-platform-for-the-masses?source=feed#comment-296524 296524 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 15:41:32 -0500
(I bought Apple Calls at 94, ta-da!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103480-iphone-a-platform-for-the-masses?source=feed#comment-296344 296344 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 11:39:53 -0500

NVS


A Technical Analysis of Apple

Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Monday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101678-3g-embedded-netbooks-a-killer-product?source=feed#comment-290436 290436 Sat, 25 Oct 2008 18:47:50 -0400
I just picked up a USB keyboard at Fry's, that weighs maybe a 1/2 pound. With that, and a USB travel mouse, I can now do serious work.

The 901 also comes with solid state drive, so you don't have to worry about setting moving it around and accidently banging it. It has WiFi, but having cellular modem on this device would great. The only snag I can see is that the cell phone companies are provincial, and having built in hardware tied to a particular provider could be a show stopper. I tend to select best of breed hardware in agnostic fashion, and I don't want to be locked in to some cellular provider that differs from my existing cell provider.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101678-3g-embedded-netbooks-a-killer-product?source=feed#comment-289765 289765 Fri, 24 Oct 2008 14:03:28 -0400
jegan ;-)

GOP for Obama .... Hey! have you seen Oliver Stone's 'W' yet.. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-289196 289196 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:16:37 -0400
I can render a complex web page on my iPhone about 4 times quicker than my old Windows "Smart"phone. That is if the page even loads in IE.

Anyone who uses Admob's data to make a business decision is a fool.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-289022 289022 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 15:39:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-288789 288789 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:47:10 -0400
--David]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-288781 288781 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:42:27 -0400
Easy to say. It's a meme. On your 1 you did receive 3 aggressively expressed comments from Apple fans, 1 from a Windoze guy, and 7 well behaved folks expressing skepticism with your mistaken conclusion.

I commend you for correcting yourself on the significance of AdMob, but I really didn't see much 'hate mail'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-288736 288736 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:22:00 -0400
-Mart]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-288729 288729 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:19:32 -0400 - 6 times greater than Windows Mobile/WinCE,
- 12 times greater than Nokia’s Symbian and
- 36 times greater than the PlayStation Portable.
- Blackberry and Palm don't even get on the graph and no other mobile platform comes close.
- The iPhone is even thrashing non-mobile platforms such as the Nintendo Wii (36x smaller), PS3 (16x smaller) etc.

marketshare.hitslink.c...

Then there is Google’s discovery a little while back that 50 times more searches occur from Apple‘s iPhone than any other mobile handset. Google “thought it was a mistake and made their engineers check the logs again,” said Vic Gundotra, head of Google’s mobile operations:

www.ft.com/cms/s/667f1...

Of course, Google plays on a far larger stage and is definitely not limited to mobile-only websites unlike AdMob.

blogs.computerworld.co...

As you say, the reason Admob is recording a much lower percentage of iPhones using mobile sites is of course because the vast majority of iPhone users browse the real web, not neutered mobile-only sites which most other phone users are restricted to.

-Mart]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-288730 288730 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:19:32 -0400 - 6 times greater than Windows Mobile/WinCE,
- 12 times greater than Nokia’s Symbian and
- 36 times greater than the PlayStation Portable.
- Blackberry and Palm don't even get on the graph and no other mobile platform comes close.
- The iPhone is even thrashing non-mobile platforms such as the Nintendo Wii (36x smaller), PS3 (16x smaller) etc.

marketshare.hitslink.c...

Then there is Google’s discovery a little while back that 50 times more searches occur from Apple‘s iPhone than any other mobile handset. Google “thought it was a mistake and made their engineers check the logs again,” said Vic Gundotra, head of Google’s mobile operations:

www.ft.com/cms/s/667f1...

Of course, Google plays on a far larger stage and is definitely not limited to mobile-only websites unlike AdMob.

blogs.computerworld.co...

As you say, the reason Admob is recording a much lower percentage of iPhones using mobile sites is of course because the vast majority of iPhone users browse the real web, not neutered mobile-only sites which most other phone users are restricted to.

-Mart]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101357-revisiting-the-iphones-browsing-market-share-part-ii?source=feed#comment-288430 288430 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 05:45:09 -0400 This is no way to say I am sorry for the slant.
Good-bye self-explainer!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-258107 258107 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:34:03 -0400
Take a chill pill! The fact that iPhone users visit some of the same web sites as the other smartphone users clearly indicates that the web sites covered are not just WAP or mobile-only version of the web sites. Motorola RAZR has a WAP browser - and can visit WAP-versions of the web sites. The point of the article is that other smartphone users also surf - it is just that the sites they go to are not monitored by Net Applications]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-257926 257926 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 10:26:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255926 255926 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 11:51:12 -0400
Based on that flawed data, the report and this blog post are also meaningless...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255859 255859 web browser. ]]> Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:51:44 -0400
Seems like the other mobiles are going to special mobile websites audited by AdMob.

"Oh. Isn't that cute? They can access the internets!"

Well, it's true in the sense that the other mobiles are true 'smartphones' while the iPhone is really in a class by itself - the only pocket web browser.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255516 255516 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 23:53:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255327 255327 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 18:19:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255281 255281 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:26:17 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255146 255146 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:59:56 -0400 Before the iPhone, what did we have? Ohhhhhh corporate emaillllll ooooooooo ahhhhhhhhhh, big freaking deal for the average consumer! Now everyone is scrambling to compete with Apple's new iPhone, but what would they be doing if there were no iPhone? Probably jack! If you are a Nokia or RIM fanboy you should be thanking Apple for getting your companies off their fat butts. Frankly I don't invest or buy products from companies that sit down during a marathon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255138 255138 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:51:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255124 255124 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:35:24 -0400 AdMob has a vested interest in downplaying anything that makes the advertising service they sell look bad, so they would want to claim that iPhone users aren't really doing much browsing - because if iPhone users ARE doing a lot of browsing, and AdMob isn't hitting those (typically upwardly-mobile) users with ads, it makes their service look less valuable. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255097 255097 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:03:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255082 255082 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 13:46:45 -0400
So the interesting thing will be to compare the upcoming reports, since the 3G release.

So it will be interesting to see

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95554-revisiting-the-iphone-s-browsing-market-share?source=feed#comment-255078 255078 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 13:40:46 -0400
NOK is huge, NOK has more fans than apple many many more and NOK does not rest on laurels. Far too much time is spent focusing on apple in the USA, and mostly when talking about how great apple has done the writers forget to mention they are talking about the USA market and not the global market. the world of phones is far far greater outside the USA than it is inside.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Will MOT and NOK and other come out with quick me toos, or will they come out with stuff that is super cool but dif.

Phones are fickle like sports crowds they can go from cheers to boos in a heart beat. Sure the "fanboys" of each brand remain but it is the fickle crowds that are the big numbers. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93866-does-apple-s-iphone-increase-browsing?source=feed#comment-246611 246611 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 18:42:54 -0400
The same thing could be said for people who were the first to use Windows Mobile smartphones - tech savvy people who would have loved to browse if the platform encouraged the behavior. I constantly hear from tech-savvy people that their browsing patterns have completely changed after they started using the iPhone - I have no doubt that the user interface had something to do with it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93866-does-apple-s-iphone-increase-browsing?source=feed#comment-245946 245946 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 01:29:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93866-does-apple-s-iphone-increase-browsing?source=feed#comment-245875 245875 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:58:23 -0400