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Randy Carlson  

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  • Tesla's Big Battery Building - Doom Or Progress?
    Mon, Mar. 9 TSLA 392 Comments

    Summary

    • News reports at the end of last week suggested Tesla is in trouble and its schedule slipping at its Nevada battery factory.
    • In spite of Tesla's emphatic denials, fear, uncertainty and doubt around Tesla's progress lingers into the weekend.
    • Direct, on-the-ground observation Saturday morning lays these concerns to rest. Tesla continues forward at a rapid pace.
  • Tesla: Gigafactory Tipping Point
    Tue, Mar. 3 TSLA 758 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's continuing success in electric cars, SuperChargers, and grid storage can richly reward investors.
    • Batteries are key and Tesla needs batteries - good, cheap, and plentiful enough, soon.
    • A new cell, better cell chemistry, and manufacturing efficiencies point to a winning Model 3, faster SuperCharging, and killer grid storage products.
    • Battery feedstocks could be a stumbling block, but suppliers are already positioning to deliver.
    • Tesla's battery progress is key to the company's value, and investors should pay close attention.
  • Tesla: Real Competition Ahead?
    Fri, Feb. 13 TSLA 224 Comments

    Summary

    • New BEVs are coming to market that may be competition for Tesla.
    • Zero-Emissions Vehicle requirements in major car market states are forcing ICE carmakers to make and sell more Battery Electric Vehicles.
    • ICE carmakers are targeting compliance BEVs toward lower-end market segments to avoid cannibalizing their high-margin ICE cars, SUVs and pickup trucks.
    • A comparison of GM's Bolt with Tesla's Model 3 offers insight into the evolving BEV market space.
  • Tesla: Importance Of The GigaFactory
    Wed, Feb. 4 TSLA 430 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's high share price is justified on the basis of rapid, long-term successful growth of their car business.
    • Growth of the scale Tesla plans with their Gigafactory is rare, but an interesting and relevant historic parallel does exist.
    • Recent pictures of the Gigafactory show the tremendous scale of this project and that it is progressing rapidly.
    • Information in Tesla's most recent 10-Q filing gives some insight and Model X news may give more insight into critical Gigafactory progress.
  • End Of Tesla, Or End Of Oil?
    Dec. 19, 2014 TSLA 448 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla shares, along with energy stocks have followed crashing oil prices.
    • Tesla's business and product strategy may insulate it from the effects of cheaper oil and gasoline.
    • Lower oil prices could portend the end of the age of oil, but cheap oil and gasoline could end Tesla if its performance car strategy fails.
  • Tesla's Strategic Advantage
    Dec. 5, 2014 TSLA 825 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla electric cars are different than those coming from established carmakers - and this will continue to be the case for years to come.
    • Differing business models constrain legacy carmakers' ability to directly and effectively compete against Tesla.
    • Tesla is not threatened by PHEVs and hybrids because Tesla cars compete against high-end, high performance internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, not "electrified" versions.
    • Tesla enjoys a long-term strategic competitive advantage that allows Tesla to attack existing high-end, high-margin market segments while avoiding direct competition.
    • As the market comes to fully appreciate Tesla's strategic advantage, company valuation will increase and shareholders will see gains.
  • Tesla's 'D', A Disappointment And Huge Financial Risk
    Oct. 10, 2014 TSLA 244 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's Model S P85D delivered the predicted level of performance, and little more.
    • With Model X deliveries delayed until summer 2015, this is Tesla's desperate attempt to have AWD available for ski season.
    • Tesla (and Chairman Elon Musk) may face huge buyback liability as 2WD Model S cars glut market when high-end Tesla owners switch to the P85D.
  • Tesla: Worrier's Analysis
    Sep. 16, 2014 TSLA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • TSLA is still priced far beyond the fundamentals.
    • Recent pullback is not untypical for this growth-story stock.
    • The "bound of hope" is approaching the "bound of fear", so watch for Tesla news.
    • January 2015 may turn out to be crunch time for TSLA.
  • Tesla's Road To Lithium
    Sep. 10, 2014 TSLA 146 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's GigaFactory being built in Nevada will use huge quantities of battery-grade lithium carbonate.
    • Securing a reliable lithium carbonate source is critical to Tesla's future profitability.
    • The Nevada-Tesla deal contains a small item with large implications for Tesla's lithium supply.
    • This also exposes synergy in Albemarle's pending acquisition of Rockwood Holdings and BASF's rumored interest in acquiring Albemarle.
  • Tesla, Are We About To Be Surprised?
    Jul. 24, 2014 TSLA 208 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's Fremont production line is shut down for Model X production upgrades.
    • Tesla is a momentum stock, and predictable news of higher Model S production following the shutdown/upgrade is likely to boost shares.
    • But the upgrade will give Tesla new capabilities, beyond greater capacity, and Tesla may surprise us with some things new and things different before Model X arrives.
  • Tesla's Fuel Cell Threat
    Jul. 8, 2014 TSLA 813 Comments

    Summary

    • Fuel cells could be the death of Tesla, even if fuel cell cars aren't as good.
    • It's the cost of the car, not just the cost of the cells that matters.
    • Tesla's Giga Factory tells the story, and investors should pay very special attention.
  • Is Cadillac's ELR A Tesla Competitor? Maybe
    Oct. 18, 2013 TSLA 256 Comments
  • Tesla's Battery Swap - What We Really Saw
    Jun. 22, 2013 TSLA 171 Comments
  • Tesla: Sober Judgment
    May. 29, 2013 TSLA 56 Comments
  • Should Tesla Buy Fiat?
    May. 16, 2013 TSLA 93 Comments
  • Foam On Tesla's Wave
    May. 9, 2013 TSLA 48 Comments
  • Tesla: Blocking, Tackling, Waiting For A TD
    May. 6, 2013 TSLA 41 Comments
  • Time Short For Tesla Shorts?
    Apr. 14, 2013 TSLA 66 Comments
  • The 3 Tesla Secrets
    Apr. 11, 2013 TSLA 98 Comments
  • Tesla's Car Financing - What I Think Happened
    Apr. 2, 2013 TSLA 186 Comments
  • Tesla, What Could It Be We're Waiting To See?
    Apr. 1, 2013 TSLA 66 Comments
  • SuperCharging Tesla
    Mar. 26, 2013 TSLA 106 Comments
  • Tesla Earnings: What To Look For
    Feb. 8, 2013 TSLA 87 Comments
  • EV Investors Can Learn From Boeing's Battery
    Jan. 31, 2013 TSLA 77 Comments
  • Has Tesla Solved The Road Trip Problem?
    Jan. 20, 2013 TSLA 242 Comments
  • Will Tesla Disrupt?
    Nov. 21, 2012 TSLA 274 Comments
  • Why Tesla Has It Right And GM, Ford And Nissan Have It Wrong
    Oct. 5, 2012 TSLA 83 Comments
More on TSLA by Randy Carlson