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Randy Carlson

 
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  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    augustom,

    Another car maker, for whom EVs are not a planned big part of their product mix, one that is building compliance EVs, for instance, would find "joining" Tesla's SuperCharger network at $2k to-the-customer very attractive.

    Such a manufacturer would avoid the roll-out time and the managerial effort and attention needed to build their own charger network. For a manufacturer planning to sell a couple thousand compliance cars in California, for instance, $1.5k/car (to the manufacturer) for giving their cars free SuperCharger access would disappear into the advertising / PR budget...

    But once Tesla is viewed as, or becomes the de facto in-place SuperCharger network it becomes more and more compelling to join rather than duplicate what Tesla has done - and of course as more EVs buy in, Tesla can further and more rapidly expand the network - so you have positive feedback. Such is first-mover advantage...

    I believe what has prevented SuperCharger partners thus far is that no other manufacture is yet building cars with long range (and therefor big batteries) that can use the 120kW SuperChargers provide, or have the range to make it from one SuperCharger to the next. With all the talk about 200 mi. range EVs from other makers, this may be changing, and I expect Tesla to pick up one or more SuperCharger partners from the coming crop of 200mi EVs.
    Aug 20 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    augustom,

    All it would take is for one major carmaker to sign on to the SuperCharger network to give their customers "free", unlimited road-trip recharging for say, $1,500 / car cost to the carmaker ($2k to the customer as incremental price).

    This would set Tesla on the path to dominate road-trip recharging for long range EVs, and that business can bring TWICE as much (or more) to Tesla's bottom line as building 500k cars a year....

    Can you say $600 a share?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 20 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    solucky,

    A recent Tesla blog post would seem to hold the answer to your questions:

    http://bit.ly/1nb5Do8

    According to this post, SuperChargers delivered 3.7 million miles worth of energy this past June. With a fleet of perhaps 40,000 Teslas on the road and operating within range of a SuperCharger, this would suggest that on average SuperChargers are delivering ~92.5 mi/month (150km/month) of "free travel" for each Tesla on the road. This is ~5% lower than the average amount of recharging predicted in my analysis.
    Aug 20 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Dave,

    It's like that on my iPad, but not on my Mac. Go figure...
    Aug 20 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    solucky,

    The SuperCharger congestion / build-out / utilization rate / Tesla financial impact has a quantitate answer based on real data.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    All this "concern" in nothing but FUD.
    Aug 20 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Glenn,

    22 yo CEOs always scare me... Tesla of course has one of these that has grown up, and that's some compensation, I suppose.

    I like your portrayal of the inner-workings of big carmakers. It sounds just like what I encountered working with GM over 40 years ago... A thought occurs to me in this regard concerning recent ICE car maker interest in fuel cells.

    Fuel cells are really complicated "systems" when all the supporting "stuff" is considered. To a large carmaker bureaucracy, this could be positive in that there are "pieces" of the fuel cell system to parcel-out to all the departments "fiefdoms" in the company... There is the electric motor, inverter, battery for the "hybrid car" department to work on. There is the 10,000 psi H2 storage tank, plumbing, regulators for the "fuel injection" department. There are pumps, fans, heat exchangers, relief valves, even an "exhaust" pipe!

    Who cares if it is cheaper, of efficient, or has refueling infrastructure? There is a job (career path) in this for everyone...
    Aug 20 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Glenn,

    22 yo CEOs always scare me... Tesla of course has one of these that has grown up, and that's some compensation, I suppose.

    I like your portrayal of the inner-workings of big carmakers. It sounds just like what I encountered working with GM over 40 years ago... A thought occurs to me in this regard concerning recent ICE car maker interest in fuel cells.

    Fuel cells are really complicated "systems" when all the supporting "stuff" is considered. To a large carmaker bureaucracy, this could be positive in that there are "pieces" of the fuel cell system to parcel-out to all the departments "fiefdoms" in the company... There is the electric motor, inverter, battery for the "hybrid car" department to work on. There is the 10,000 psi H2 storage tank, plumbing, regulators for the "fuel injection" department. There are pumps, fans, heat exchangers, relief valves, even an "exhaust" pipe!

    Who cares if it is cheaper, of efficient, or has refueling infrastructure? There is a job (career path) in this for everyone...
    Aug 20 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Glenn,

    22 yo CEOs always scare me... Tesla of course has one of these that has grown up, and that's some compensation, I suppose.

    I like your portrayal of the inner-workings of big carmakers. It sounds just like what I encountered working with GM over 40 years ago... A thought occurs to me in this regard concerning recent ICE car maker interest in fuel cells.

    Fuel cells are really complicated "systems" when all the supporting "stuff" is considered. To a large carmaker bureaucracy, this could be positive in that there are "pieces" of the fuel cell system to parcel-out to all the departments "fiefdoms" in the company... There is the electric motor, inverter, battery for the "hybrid car" department to work on. There is the 10,000 psi H2 storage tank, plumbing, regulators for the "fuel injection" department. There are pumps, fans, heat exchangers, relief valves, even an "exhaust" pipe!

    Who cares if it is cheaper, of efficient, or has refueling infrastructure? There is a job (career path) in this for everyone...
    Aug 20 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Glenn,

    22 yo CEOs always scare me... Tesla of course has one of these that has grown up, and that's some compensation, I suppose.

    I like your portrayal of the inner-workings of big carmakers. It sounds just like what I encountered working with GM over 40 years ago... A thought occurs to me in this regard concerning recent ICE car maker interest in fuel cells.

    Fuel cells are really complicated "systems" when all the supporting "stuff" is considered. To a large carmaker bureaucracy, this could be positive in that there are "pieces" of the fuel cell system to parcel-out to all the departments "fiefdoms" in the company... There is the electric motor, inverter, battery for the "hybrid car" department to work on. There is the 10,000 psi H2 storage tank, plumbing, regulators for the "fuel injection" department. There are pumps, fans, heat exchangers, relief valves, even an "exhaust" pipe!

    Who cares if it is cheaper, or efficient, or has refueling infrastructure? There is a job (career path) in this for everyone...
    Aug 20 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Glenn,

    22 yo CEOs always scare me... Tesla of course has one of these that has grown up, and that's some compensation, I suppose.

    I like your portrayal of the inner-workings of big carmakers. It sounds just like what I encountered working with GM over 40 years ago... A thought occurs to me in this regard concerning recent ICE car maker interest in fuel cells.

    Fuel cells are really complicated "systems" when all the supporting "stuff" is considered. To a large carmaker bureaucracy, this could be positive in that there are "pieces" of the fuel cell system to parcel-out to all the departments "fiefdoms" in the company... There is the electric motor, inverter, battery for the "hybrid car" department to work on. There is the 10,000 psi H2 storage tank, plumbing, regulators for the "fuel injection" department. There are pumps, fans, heat exchangers, relief valves, even an "exhaust" pipe!

    Who cares if it is cheaper, or efficient, or has refueling infrastructure? There is a job (career path) in this for everyone...
    Aug 20 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    O_R,

    I don't think the LEAF will see significantly increased battery capacity / range. When the next generation of batteries become available, I would expect Nissan to roll out a new car with a more fully optimized-for-EV platform.

    Fuel / fool cells? I'm with Mr. Musk on that one.
    Aug 19 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    augustom,

    Do you mean to tell us that BMW is worth MORE than Tesla? More than TWICE MORE?

    BMW isn't even named after a famous person! Bavarian Motor Works, sounds like cars that run on beer (not that that's a bad idea, the technology just isn't here yet, my friend...) If it wasn't the the great handling and posh upholstery, no one would take BMW seriously.

    Tesla on the other hand is built using real technology, electricity. And not just the old fashioned DC kind that Franklin discovered with his kite and his key, no sir, they use the very latest kind of electricity, AC electricity. They are named after a REAL inventor, too. Nichola Tesla invented that AC electricity that makes your washing machine wash, that makes the gates of the Panama Canal open and close - the very same technology that makes Tesla cars go! Tesla is a real company that understands their heritage and isn't afraid to put it in the company name.

    No, Tesla can't possibly be over-valued if it isn't worth even half as much as BMW!

    /satire off/
    Aug 19 08:08 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    LT,

    Tesla's backlog / demand is certainly something to watch. Every time I look at it I come away half befuddled or utterly certain they will never run out of customers. I suppose that if unsold Model Ss start to pile up in Fremont, the company could always advertise, or something...
    Aug 19 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    c,

    I'm not all that convinced that we know the market size limits that well. The LEAF is rather less than the world's most aesthetically pleasing vehicle. BMW is a comparatively niche brand. Tesla looks to be as much production as demand limited, and they are a start-up car company which likely puts-off many buyers. And so on.

    While the Model S offers fairly good value for money within the class of car that it is, one can't say the same for the LEAF, How the i3 stacks up against the Volt or Cadillac ELR depends on which GM product you choose to compare and what you are looking for...

    So long as Tesla cars are good enough that Tesla can sell every one they can make, that's probably good enough. We have still to see a true Model S competitor from someone else. Maybe someday we will...
    Aug 19 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Andreas,

    You appear unfamiliar with the concept of justification through faith alone...
    Aug 19 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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