Randy Kirk

Sinopec: Potential for Growth

Thanks for that comment Ex15:26 -- Sinopec as a whole is not losing money currently, as Sinopec has 4 divisions, upstream, marketing, chemicals and refining -- and refining is losing money, the other divisions are profitable.

The extent to which Sinopec's refining division is losing money is a complicated matter, which doesn't translate easily into the press -- I've addressed Sinopec's refining division in an earlier article which can be found here: seekingalpha.com/artic...

I can comment, last quarter was a bit of a surprise in terms of the size of the refining losses, however, SNP didn't provide much detail on their other divisions -- I suspect that they are expensing a lot of exploratory expenses in their upstream division, which didn't show any profit growth in the first quarter (which was a surprise, as oil prices were up significantly). But as Tahe, Puguang (as mentioned in the article above) come online, E&P profits should increase.

Overall, the Chinese oil majors tend to move a lot day to day, with moves of -/+5% not uncommon -- much of this I believe is due to the movement of the overall Chinese markets, which are very volatile.

Note sentiment towards Sinopec is currently at a nadir, as most endowments and EU related funds have divested Sinopec due to the Sudan issue, and there is a lot of resentment towards SNP by western oil majors due to SNP's aggressive attitude towards international oil acquisitions. This filters down to articles in the press.

In terms of a pair trade, I generally go long and hold for a longer period of time (well over a year) so can't predict short term moves. Also, I can't predict what will happen to the price of oil over the short term.

Sinopec: Potential for Growth

CEO is more straightforward -- also a good buy (in my opinion) -- CEO doesn't have the refining issues or the Sudan issues of Sinopec. Sinopec is selling at a slightly lower market capitalization than CEO currently -- unusual for an integrated oil major to sell at approximately $80Bn that is ranked #22 on Forbes Global ranking of the world's 500 largest companies.

The relatively low market capitalization of Sinopec is I believe is mainly due to three issues
1. Refining division -- this is currently losing money, although how much and what sort of subsidies and future price increases in the price of petrol within China is a point of debate

2. Sudan divestment -- PetroChina is much more active in Sudan than Sinopec, (any activity there could be construed as a legitimate reason to sell however) and most funds and endowments which have divested PetroChina due to the Sudan have also divested Sinopec.

3. International oil community resentment of Sinopec -- Sinopec has been very aggressive in bidding for international oil projects, which has driven up the price of oil projects for all oil majors -- this has led to a negative attitude in general towards SNP by oil majors and western oil publications.