Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
I have held LVS for sometime before selling it in the 40's because the stock action was telegraphing a miss in earnings. I wish I hadn't had to ride it down so fast.
When I saw the numbers this quarter, I was a bit disturbed. I have always felt the Macau was a bubble that was growing faster than it should, but this was the first evidence that my thesis may have merit.
I am much more bullish on the integrated resort model. I got into LVS because of Marina Bay, and I thought the wave in Macau would continue. However, I was always scared that the wave in Macau would end.
As for the forbes writer, I have not read anything of his before yesterday, but I am on the lookout for good info on the China Slowdown and ways to play it. I haven't found anything compelling yet. I would love to discover something like the CDS trade on CDO's during the housing market crash.
I find your data interesting, and it may help me in my investing. Any thoughts on WYNN? I am short the stock for a myriad of reasons which I intend to write an article about.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
Thank you for posting that as it adds great color to the debate. The only issue I have is calling the revenue decline QoQ expected.
The drop was certainly not expected. Cook did a good job of rationalizing the revenue decline. The question is do we believe him?
Next quarter will tell the true story.
I agree the product cycle is amazing for AAPL, If I hadn't seen the weakness this quarter, I would be firm in my belief that China would take AAPL to a trillion dollar market cap.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
Would like to see some analysis on your comment. Although there is some truth to it, I do not believe that it accounts for all the drop. Even still, with AAPL's marketshare still so low in China, there should have been more demand across the board to make up for the shortfall. I still feel there there is something fishy on the demand side and would like some more data/clarity on this.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
You are correct, and I should have included some discussion of this in the article. The industry should still grow around 10% year over year in Macau for the June quarter.
Even so, there is a significant slowdown in the growth rate. This is affecting the above two casino stocks in a negative way. It does point to some discernible weakness with the chinese consumer.
There is basically no same store sales growth anymore.
AIG's $30 Billion Stock Overhang: Once Absorbed, Financial Stocks Will Fly [View article]
AIG is probably not going anywhere until after the governments next sale, which will probably come a few days after earnings. It may be quite a large offering 10bn+ (they recently got 6bn available for buybacks), after which investors may bid up the stock in anticipation of the next offering being the final one.
Any uptick in the above mentioned stocks trading below TBV will also likely impact AIG's stock price.
AIG's $30 Billion Stock Overhang: Once Absorbed, Financial Stocks Will Fly [View article]
You may be right, but I think many are under appreciating the forces of supply and demand. This is one of the reasons why mutual fund inflows/outflows are so important.
1. Federal Regulation - Should be some clarity after the election 2. Litigation - Probably a non issue 3. Basel Requirements - Here the U.S. banks are way ahead of the curve. This quarter in particular many made a lot of headway.
Loved the first part of the article about buying what you know. However, I can only agree with F and AAPL as good stocks.
The other 3, while being the most iconic brands in american history, are fully valued and basically yesterdays news. If the trip up (like Jamie Dimon in JPM) then they can fall quite a bit.
I think buying American is the way to go for a whole host of reasons which I'll probably write in an article one day.
Wells Fargo: Underpriced Growth And Total Return Potential [View article]
Wells has proven to be the best run bank, that is in businesses that the market is giving the highest multiple to.
I just think at this point it is a herd type of stock for the mutual fund community. What if something goes wrong (like the JPM debacle or Citi's fumbling of the stress test)?
In that scenario, the multiple will just be dragged down in line with the sector. Great run business, but priced for perfection. Much like JPM was before the london whale.
I would rather buy a basket of the undervalued banks (BAC, C, MS). I think over the long haul this basket should outperform.
GM: Why Einhorn And Buffett Have Been (And Will Continue To Be) Wrong [View article]
It is all about the underfunded pension liability. If they can sort this out, the stock will fly as buybacks and dividends will come.
Will be fascinating if the earnings call gives some more clarity on this issue with the recent pension buyout offers.
Long the warrants
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
When I saw the numbers this quarter, I was a bit disturbed. I have always felt the Macau was a bubble that was growing faster than it should, but this was the first evidence that my thesis may have merit.
I am much more bullish on the integrated resort model. I got into LVS because of Marina Bay, and I thought the wave in Macau would continue. However, I was always scared that the wave in Macau would end.
As for the forbes writer, I have not read anything of his before yesterday, but I am on the lookout for good info on the China Slowdown and ways to play it. I haven't found anything compelling yet. I would love to discover something like the CDS trade on CDO's during the housing market crash.
I find your data interesting, and it may help me in my investing. Any thoughts on WYNN? I am short the stock for a myriad of reasons which I intend to write an article about.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
http://onforb.es/OwC9Rc
If you want to try and crystalize China weakness, this guy has written a ton of stuff.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
One thing about Macau. I am quite sure that it the Chinese economy slows materially that there will be a significant effect in Macau.
Already growth has slowed significantly, and as you can see, those who have been short LVS and WYNN have made a ton of money over the last 3 months.
I get that china is a huge market opportunity, but that does not matter if there is a significant downturn in their economy.
The Chinese have had an economic miracle, but I think we can all agree that economies are cyclical, and at some point China will soften up.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
The drop was certainly not expected. Cook did a good job of rationalizing the revenue decline. The question is do we believe him?
Next quarter will tell the true story.
I agree the product cycle is amazing for AAPL, If I hadn't seen the weakness this quarter, I would be firm in my belief that China would take AAPL to a trillion dollar market cap.
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
Apple, Wynn And Sands: The Chinese Consumer May Be Weakening Fast [View article]
Even so, there is a significant slowdown in the growth rate. This is affecting the above two casino stocks in a negative way. It does point to some discernible weakness with the chinese consumer.
There is basically no same store sales growth anymore.
Morgan Stanley Missed Big: Why It's Still A Fantastic Short [View article]
MS is a business in decline, and will continue to do so unless they are bought out.
I disagree that it is a good short. Because MS is now a bank, they will have access to funding preventing a run on the bank.
They also have the highest Basel 3 (8.5%) of all the big banks.
Also, they will be able to cut compensation expense (as the ratios are less than GS) in order to remain profitable.
Unless there are trading losses, MS should be able to maintain tangible book value until they break up or sell themselves.
AIG's $30 Billion Stock Overhang: Once Absorbed, Financial Stocks Will Fly [View article]
Any uptick in the above mentioned stocks trading below TBV will also likely impact AIG's stock price.
AIG's $30 Billion Stock Overhang: Once Absorbed, Financial Stocks Will Fly [View article]
1. Federal Regulation - Should be some clarity after the election
2. Litigation - Probably a non issue
3. Basel Requirements - Here the U.S. banks are way ahead of the curve. This quarter in particular many made a lot of headway.
Berkowitz Owns 1/3 Of AIG's TARP Warrants, And He Can't Get Out [View article]
In fact, progress has been made as AIG just got almost 6 billion to buy back stock at what will be a highly accretive price.
Retirement Portfolio: Buy American [View article]
The other 3, while being the most iconic brands in american history, are fully valued and basically yesterdays news. If the trip up (like Jamie Dimon in JPM) then they can fall quite a bit.
I think buying American is the way to go for a whole host of reasons which I'll probably write in an article one day.
How American International Group Becomes A 5-Bagger In 7 Years [View article]
Wells Fargo: Underpriced Growth And Total Return Potential [View article]
I just think at this point it is a herd type of stock for the mutual fund community. What if something goes wrong (like the JPM debacle or Citi's fumbling of the stress test)?
In that scenario, the multiple will just be dragged down in line with the sector. Great run business, but priced for perfection. Much like JPM was before the london whale.
I would rather buy a basket of the undervalued banks (BAC, C, MS). I think over the long haul this basket should outperform.
Best Bill Ackman Shareholder Letter Yet [View instapost]