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Rash Menaria

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  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Hi Zenyatta, havent started tracking verizon yet so no idea as of now. But would definitely look at it going forward.

    Upbeat, don't miss terex. My first target on it is $28 (on the back of improving fundamentals and better management commentary).
    Sep 21 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terex (NYSE: TEX) : Finally the action time [View instapost]
    Mike you pay taxes on profit only. so the total tax in you example would be (Tax rate) * (Profit) =0.3*40= $12

    Hence you are left with $228>$200
    Sep 21 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terex (NYSE: TEX) : Finally the action time [View instapost]
    "So if you can't make 30%, technically you lose money. " Whats this Mike?

    I am not a long term guy. I look for catalyst to stock price and there are many for terex in near term. There is a nice upside here over next few weeks.
    Sep 20 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Guys here's the new one: Terex. I am long it...
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Sep 20 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    watch out the space for a couple of more fire crackers shortly :)
    Sep 17 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Recent run up was expected as company was obscenely udervalued at those levels. Still there's upside... It is going to be a "show me" story going forward as investors become more comfortable with the company delivering good performance.

    As stock goes up, it is likely to catch wall street's attention and having more sell side coverage would definitely help. That seems to be sometime away. But till then beware of "jokers" who call them media analysts and don't be distracted by them.

    Meanwhile, I am recommending Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) now. I think sell side is not building in any benifit of cost cutting initiatives.Current quarter earnings beat (sept. 28) and good sept sales number (oct.5) are likely to serve as catalyst. 10-15% kind of upside is likely in next 3-4 weeks timeframe.
    Sep 14 03:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Guys, I have published a new instablog to discuss some changes on rediff.com's website in past few days. Do have a look if you are interested:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Aug 15 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    @Wiseryoungman

    Its aggressive research, not insider trading.

    Its based on what management is publically saying, what their competitors are saying, channel checks, what really makes sense and according to my understanding of the sector and trends what is going to be a probable outcome.

    Management itself has said that you would hear more about their search initiatives one of these days.

    As per as my previous recommendation on anixter is concerned, you can't blame me if sell side is not doing their maths probably. I wrote that article when stock was at $42. After that a lot of sell side guys realized their mistake and one guy wrote a report citing exactly the reasons I was saying and conveyed that his numbers can have significant upside. Stock went to $51 on earnings day which was my target. Still a lot of potential remains in that stock if markets are supportive and there is a good chance of multiple expansion. Its just my understanding and my analysis.
    Aug 14 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Nikhil,

    Here is what I have to say on your comments:

    1. Search Deal: Nikhil you are not asking the right questions. You have regularly asked management if they would like to have a search deal with biggies. And management have always maintained that they believe that local search is a big market. What sense does a search deal with Microsoft makes when Microsoft itself is not able to compete with Google. Google has a leadership position in general search in India and it’s very difficult for anyone to come even close. On the other hand, local search market (including search in specific verticals) is still an unsatisfied need. (Local search doesn’t mean search in Indian language. It’s about generating the results which are more relevant to Indians).

    Things are out there. It’s just your preconceived notion which is preventing you from acknowledging it. And this is not something unique to you. It always happens in investment community producing a good opportunity for those who can overcome these barriers to see what’s actually happening at ground level!

    2. Newfound Aggression: I see the difference this time. It’s not about new product or service. It’s about improving and cross leveraging existing ones.

    You are talking about the minimalist design which impacted revenues in the past. However, you are not noticing that recently in addition to videos on the home page, company is also displaying interesting “mypages” which attracts clicks! Minimalist design was a thing of past and has been already priced in stock a year ago. Now there are incrementally positive signs. Stock Markets price in future potential not past.

    And this is just one example. You now see much interesting and appealing content on rediff’s homepage. What we call spicy content always work for Indians, isn’t it? As per web 2.0 type changes are concerned, they have started to cross leverage their reader base just now. And they are promoting it in a manner that it actually doesn’t look like advertising. If they have changed their comment section from “xyz says” to “xyz (View mypage) says” it’s good enough to make their current users aware of this new product offering. And it doesn’t cost rediff anything! Zero risk as it does not turn off any one. Further, I am seeing some nascent positive changes from this initiative though would not like to call them conclusive else you will accuse me of cheerleading. Still seeing rediff’s management act in a right direction is something I am happy about.

    3. Internet Penetration:

    If a market is going to grow 10-20 times (more user plus more time spend/user on internet), a leader in that market is bound to grow. Let’s assume all initiatives by Rediff in web2.0 fails and Rediff’s growth in its Web1.0 form lag the growth of Web2.0 sites. Instead of growing at 25% it might just grow at 15%, but it still would mean a growth.

    Further, mobile is a very nascent market in India, you cannot expect it to be a revenue driver in near term. That’s how internet market has been. Ajit was straight forward in telling the truth and I think it’s good. More than mobile it’s about the normal broadband growth which would help in near term. Don’t you see the potential which wireless data cards like “tata photon”, “reliance netconnect” have. With Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries bidding for wireless spectrum there is nothing left to guess on what to expect!

    4. Mobile opportunity: We have already discussed some issues in above. Wireless broadband is already affordable and is going to be more so in next few quarters. Your few year timeline is very stretched in my opinion if you know what Reliance Industries did when it launched its mobile services in India. Never in my dream can I doubt execution capabilities of Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance.

    You have already metioned “However, I do grant that Rediff has deals in place for fee based revenues (ringtones and ringbacktones), through its vertical search.” So won’t elaborate on it.

    To your comment:
    “Incidentally, the vertical search is what Mr. Balakrishnan said is a source of revenue from search, but did not elaborate on the trends in that business”

    I would say that it’s not always possible for a public company to disclose such things for competitive reasons. If management keeps on disclosing where the real action is, they might do more harm to shareholders than good in near term.


    5. Rediff content as a differentiator: It’s not about where you source your content, it is about what content you are providing to you readers and do they like it. And yes it has changed recently and it is noticeable to naked eyes.

    “After the change in its homepage, which showcases less content on loading, Rediff has ceased to be a significant content destination.”

    It over a year old news. Things are changing now. I have already discussed some. You can keep a track yourself, it’s not that difficult.

    6. Advertisers: As long as consumers are visiting rediff and rediff is taking efforts to attract more visitors, advertisers will continue to use rediff.

    7. Alexa & Comscore: But that the only data out there. Do you know some one better?

    8. Transparency:

    “my biggest problem with Rediff is its lack of transparency.”

    It’s sometime difficult for a public company to disclose everything for competitive reasons. You need to understand that. And Nikhil do some channel checks and research. It’s not too difficult to find the answers to most of the question. You might not get exact quantitative answers but finding trends and directions are not difficult. That’s aggressive research as compared to passive journalism. Take for example this query:

    “There have been reports of Rediff having invested in Fintact bit.ly/99mRX1 , but Rediff's investor desk has not responded to my email for a confirmation of this, sent Jun 21, 2010 at 4:15 PM”

    I don’t think it’s too difficult for anyone to find out that Fintact has wounded down it operations. According to my checks Rediff did invested a small amount (Not greater than USD 100, 000). The two guys who were running this business were promising graduates from a leading Business school. It failed. But it is not any material event or information. It’s not going to have any significant impact on its stock price.

    Though, I totally agree with you point that it’s highly irresponsible on the part of rediff’s investor relation officer to not have responded to your mail. He could have said the company would not like to comment, but not responding is completely unacceptable. Probably getting a better IR officer might help Rediff.

    I don’t care much about Vubites.com and thinks its much more media hype rather that anything else. It is not even an internet thing. It’s a TV thing!

    To summarize:
    - Incremental signs of right efforts and their positive impact
    - Market Growth all set to help
    - Extreme fear and doomsday scenario already priced in

    Yes, I was not too big a fan of management like you earlier. My concern was execution rather than transparency. But now with them taking efforts in the right direction, I don’t see any reason of booing them down.

    And really sorry Nikhil if you didn’t like any of my comment. I only mean to say as a journalist you are just analyzing historical data which every one is already pricing in. You will see my point if you do some aggressive research or investigative journalism
    Aug 14 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Nikhil is a media analyst.
    First, buy side will know (hedge funds and others who manage their properietory investment would buy) . Second, sell side will know (making their clients mutual funds to buy). Last media analyst like Nikhil will know, writing articles to create interest in retail investors. And by that time stock would already be up significantly.

    Search initiatives are just one aspect of it. Aren't you seeing the change on rediff website itself. The content they are having now vs what they had till a month ago. Its so clearly visible: the quality of articles and their initiatives to cross leverage!

    And as far as definition of cyclical vs secular growth is concerned. I understand it very well and know what you are talking. Every industry to some extent is cyclical. Its just a question of how much. Even in media a financial news channel like cnbc is much more cyclical than a general entertainment channel. I understand you have learned some definitions. Its good to help you look smart and I am happy for you. You do that and I concentrate on making money.

    Look at my last article on Anixter. I wrote that article on July 13th. In next two week anixter outperformed s&p on every single day with total outperformance on over 12% in two weeks till its earnings. And the reason was exactly what I have mentioned sell side was significantly underestimating their earnings. I am happy as long as my ideas work. I don't care what others say as they would realize it sooner or later.

    You dont wan't to trust alexa, you dont want to acknowledge the change in quality of content, you dont want to beleive their financial which are improving: Its your choice. In my opinion its fear at extreme.

    I am seeing the initiatives and positive impact. And
    I beleive broader market is soon going to realize it causing stock price to go up.

    You can square off your short position. Ego is a very harmful in the stock markets!

    And please, do you really go by what media or media analyst say!!!
    Get a life dude. They are not there to say what is right. They are their to say what you would love to hear. Sorry for Nikhil and other media analyst, but that is the truth and they know it!
    Aug 13 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Wise young man
    1. Rediff stock will go up because of catalyst I have mentioned in the article.
    2. Do you really understand what you are saying
    "You have no real reasons why it should turn around. However, you do feel some evidence exists of changes based on numbers and what you see on the website."

    Don't you think financial numbers improving, user experience improving are real reasons. Which part of stock market are you from!!!

    Some comments on your view point:

    1. If you can count a real improvement in topline and improving user experience as which is leading them to spend more time on website as Hope. Don't know your strategy!

    2. "Increase in advertising rates is a function of demand and supply".
    Yes exactly. Do you know the basics of cyclical investing!
    "REDF has no presence in any of the growth segments of internet advertising"
    And without that it has $20 mn revenue. With management now focussing on improving revenues, don't you think this is an opportuinity. Rediff has a lot of scope to improve monetization and with management now going aggresive it presents a good opportuinity. (Though I haven't included that in my valuation)

    3. "15% growth is in my opinion a sign that they are losing the battle. The number of new users coming online in India is much larger."
    Yes, they were loosing battle so far being defensive. They were a web 1.0 company and were not able to grow as fast as some of web 2.0. But now management going aggressive and are making changes which are realling working. Their promotion of "my pages" which is one of their web 2.0 initiative is just one example. You go through their website to notice more. And it is working as users are now spending more "time on site"

    4. "3G is bound to get delayed in India and there are existing players who have entrenched relationships who are smarter, more innovative and have no reason to lose a battle to a old, lethargic, me too competitor."
    Oh god! so you are now questioning Indian telecom company's ability to implement 3G.

    5. "REDF is trying to build facebook-ish features without having the vision of the social graph. Such initiatives are bound to fail and consume capital and management energy in the interim."

    Well you can keep praying for those initiative to fail, when actually there are initial positive signs.

    I'll see you at the peak :)


    Aug 13 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Wiseryoung man,

    Don't you think all the negative points you have mentioned are already priced in?

    Why in this world you will get a top indian internet portal for an EV of less than $20 mn! If everything was going right it would have been over $20 per share (remember 2007).

    Further, things have just started changing now. And I am not talking of some management announcement or others. I am talking about actual numbers and initiatives which are clearly visible.

    A 26% increase in core advertising rates, 15% YoY increase in users. Plus the catalysts which I have mentioned.

    Havent you seen the change in news content on rediff.com in past couple of weeks. They have changed from serious/boring artices to news from Mid-day (Mumbai based tabloid) which appeals youth. Have you seen change in their comments section they made a week earlier. Earlier it loked like xyz says. Now it looks like xyz (view my page) says. These are just some example. You will notice numerous one suggesting they are fighting back.

    And you may ridicule these changes as ineffective. But go to www.alexa.com/siteinfo...
    and click on Time on Site.

    You will notice average "time on site" per visitor is slightly increasing. Its the first sign of the turnaround. And I am helping investors catch this idea at real bottom when every one has thrown the towel.

    There were 100 negative reasons you could have mention in support of shorting S&P at 666 . But the fact is the people who went long on it at that point did made a killing!

    Its about catching a good idea as close as bottom and in this case with things improving, it makes sense to invest.

    I have already given my points. I think you will take a you turn when you realize it as stock moves to higher levels!
    Aug 13 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Thats work of an editor. Isn't it? :D
    Aug 12 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - We've Seen the Lows for the Year (7/12/10) [View article]
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Jul 14 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anixter International: Earnings Beat to Serve as Significant Upside Catalyst [View article]
    One of the reason sell side may not be getting their numbers right is they are not able to adjust for last years one off drop in revenue in 2Q. It was due to the broader macro decline as well as company late cycle nature of the business. Things are different in current year and if we look at YoY growth, company should be easily able to post mid teen growth for remaining quarters of current year.
    Jul 14 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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