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Rash Menaria  

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  • Italy's GSE Announcement and Solar Stocks: Bull vs. Bear Cases [View article]
    jbde, burden on taxpayers would increase if italy decides to do so
    Jan 31, 2011. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy and Germany Subsidy News a Potential Negative for Solar Stocks [View article]
    Here is the link to my new article on the topic
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jan 30, 2011. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy and Germany Subsidy News a Potential Negative for Solar Stocks [View article]
    Guys, I got similar angry response from when I to long rediff (REDF) 5 month ago. The stock has more than tripled.

    I am not commenting on outlook of solar market in total but this news on Italy and Germany might adversely effect the multiple based on 2H11 uncertainty.

    And stories on Asia, emerging markets is still some time away. I am not agreeing it or denying it. I am see it to believe it person. But Italy and Germany doesn't seem good to me from demand perspective going forward.
    Jan 27, 2011. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy and Germany Subsidy News a Potential Negative for Solar Stocks [View article]
    A lot of angry longs! huh!
    Jan 27, 2011. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument for Going Long Darden Restaurants [View article]
    I see Risk reward favorable at current price point. Most of the negatives are already priced in the stock. I have known Raymond James for long. They are notorious for giving such ideas without any knowledge of whats happening at ground level. And every body already know about knapp track being down .8% in December plus food inflation. Its just the panic reaction which happened today.
    Jan 26, 2011. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument for Going Long Darden Restaurants [View article]
    Ramond James Analyst today downgraded the sector giving an attractive entry point. Raymond James has history for providing such upgrades/downgrades in order encourage churning in client portfolio. They have no clue whats up at ground level.
    Jan 26, 2011. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Hi Oh No!

    There is no doubt the price at which you have purchased it does not offer same risk reward as the price at which i recommended it. And I am sure you know it. I am an honest person and won't give you any false assurances.

    However, the good news is I can help you. But you need to be my client for that. Don't worry, I only charge for the ideas with significant out performance. Plus I am not from the community of those who just pump and dump a stock or market a stock after it has already gone up to fool retail investors in when funds are exiting. Neither am I one of those who preach value investing without knowing what exactly is it. You can check my articles/instablog on rediff, terex and anixter to get a sense.

    I know how the "real" system works and my ideas would be better than what most of the hedge fund managers have! Frankly, I wouldn't be working for retail investors had my previous employers wouldn't have made their best enough effort to ensure I am not in the stock market anymore. Anyways, mail me at rash.menaria@yahoo.com with your full details if you want to be among chosen few :)
    Jan 24, 2011. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Guys book at least some profit if you have made the position at $2 which was my initial recommendation. The promoter just siphoned off $17 mn of cash. ( www.livemint.com/2010/... ). I underestimated this level of open theft. Further instead of collaborating in search rediff is planning to develop its own platform which should be a negative in my opinion.
    Nov 9, 2010. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - Walgreen: Good Company, One Dog of an Industry (9/23/10) [View article]
    yups even look at the options activity. it is significantly bullish.
    Sep 24, 2010. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - Walgreen: Good Company, One Dog of an Industry (9/23/10) [View article]
    Guys don't believe cramer. Sell side is significantly underestimating Walgreen's restructuring savings. It can easily beat the earnings leading to pent up demand of shares and a big upside on the earnings day.
    Sep 24, 2010. 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terex (NYSE: TEX) : Finally the action time [View instapost]
    Mike you pay taxes on profit only. so the total tax in you example would be (Tax rate) * (Profit) =0.3*40= $12

    Hence you are left with $228>$200
    Sep 21, 2010. 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terex (NYSE: TEX) : Finally the action time [View instapost]
    "So if you can't make 30%, technically you lose money. " Whats this Mike?

    I am not a long term guy. I look for catalyst to stock price and there are many for terex in near term. There is a nice upside here over next few weeks.
    Sep 20, 2010. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Guys, I have published a new instablog to discuss some changes on rediff.com's website in past few days. Do have a look if you are interested:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Aug 15, 2010. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rediff.com Finally Sees Some Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Nikhil,

    Here is what I have to say on your comments:

    1. Search Deal: Nikhil you are not asking the right questions. You have regularly asked management if they would like to have a search deal with biggies. And management have always maintained that they believe that local search is a big market. What sense does a search deal with Microsoft makes when Microsoft itself is not able to compete with Google. Google has a leadership position in general search in India and it’s very difficult for anyone to come even close. On the other hand, local search market (including search in specific verticals) is still an unsatisfied need. (Local search doesn’t mean search in Indian language. It’s about generating the results which are more relevant to Indians).

    Things are out there. It’s just your preconceived notion which is preventing you from acknowledging it. And this is not something unique to you. It always happens in investment community producing a good opportunity for those who can overcome these barriers to see what’s actually happening at ground level!

    2. Newfound Aggression: I see the difference this time. It’s not about new product or service. It’s about improving and cross leveraging existing ones.

    You are talking about the minimalist design which impacted revenues in the past. However, you are not noticing that recently in addition to videos on the home page, company is also displaying interesting “mypages” which attracts clicks! Minimalist design was a thing of past and has been already priced in stock a year ago. Now there are incrementally positive signs. Stock Markets price in future potential not past.

    And this is just one example. You now see much interesting and appealing content on rediff’s homepage. What we call spicy content always work for Indians, isn’t it? As per web 2.0 type changes are concerned, they have started to cross leverage their reader base just now. And they are promoting it in a manner that it actually doesn’t look like advertising. If they have changed their comment section from “xyz says” to “xyz (View mypage) says” it’s good enough to make their current users aware of this new product offering. And it doesn’t cost rediff anything! Zero risk as it does not turn off any one. Further, I am seeing some nascent positive changes from this initiative though would not like to call them conclusive else you will accuse me of cheerleading. Still seeing rediff’s management act in a right direction is something I am happy about.

    3. Internet Penetration:

    If a market is going to grow 10-20 times (more user plus more time spend/user on internet), a leader in that market is bound to grow. Let’s assume all initiatives by Rediff in web2.0 fails and Rediff’s growth in its Web1.0 form lag the growth of Web2.0 sites. Instead of growing at 25% it might just grow at 15%, but it still would mean a growth.

    Further, mobile is a very nascent market in India, you cannot expect it to be a revenue driver in near term. That’s how internet market has been. Ajit was straight forward in telling the truth and I think it’s good. More than mobile it’s about the normal broadband growth which would help in near term. Don’t you see the potential which wireless data cards like “tata photon”, “reliance netconnect” have. With Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries bidding for wireless spectrum there is nothing left to guess on what to expect!

    4. Mobile opportunity: We have already discussed some issues in above. Wireless broadband is already affordable and is going to be more so in next few quarters. Your few year timeline is very stretched in my opinion if you know what Reliance Industries did when it launched its mobile services in India. Never in my dream can I doubt execution capabilities of Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance.

    You have already metioned “However, I do grant that Rediff has deals in place for fee based revenues (ringtones and ringbacktones), through its vertical search.” So won’t elaborate on it.

    To your comment:
    “Incidentally, the vertical search is what Mr. Balakrishnan said is a source of revenue from search, but did not elaborate on the trends in that business”

    I would say that it’s not always possible for a public company to disclose such things for competitive reasons. If management keeps on disclosing where the real action is, they might do more harm to shareholders than good in near term.


    5. Rediff content as a differentiator: It’s not about where you source your content, it is about what content you are providing to you readers and do they like it. And yes it has changed recently and it is noticeable to naked eyes.

    “After the change in its homepage, which showcases less content on loading, Rediff has ceased to be a significant content destination.”

    It over a year old news. Things are changing now. I have already discussed some. You can keep a track yourself, it’s not that difficult.

    6. Advertisers: As long as consumers are visiting rediff and rediff is taking efforts to attract more visitors, advertisers will continue to use rediff.

    7. Alexa & Comscore: But that the only data out there. Do you know some one better?

    8. Transparency:

    “my biggest problem with Rediff is its lack of transparency.”

    It’s sometime difficult for a public company to disclose everything for competitive reasons. You need to understand that. And Nikhil do some channel checks and research. It’s not too difficult to find the answers to most of the question. You might not get exact quantitative answers but finding trends and directions are not difficult. That’s aggressive research as compared to passive journalism. Take for example this query:

    “There have been reports of Rediff having invested in Fintact bit.ly/99mRX1 , but Rediff's investor desk has not responded to my email for a confirmation of this, sent Jun 21, 2010 at 4:15 PM”

    I don’t think it’s too difficult for anyone to find out that Fintact has wounded down it operations. According to my checks Rediff did invested a small amount (Not greater than USD 100, 000). The two guys who were running this business were promising graduates from a leading Business school. It failed. But it is not any material event or information. It’s not going to have any significant impact on its stock price.

    Though, I totally agree with you point that it’s highly irresponsible on the part of rediff’s investor relation officer to not have responded to your mail. He could have said the company would not like to comment, but not responding is completely unacceptable. Probably getting a better IR officer might help Rediff.

    I don’t care much about Vubites.com and thinks its much more media hype rather that anything else. It is not even an internet thing. It’s a TV thing!

    To summarize:
    - Incremental signs of right efforts and their positive impact
    - Market Growth all set to help
    - Extreme fear and doomsday scenario already priced in

    Yes, I was not too big a fan of management like you earlier. My concern was execution rather than transparency. But now with them taking efforts in the right direction, I don’t see any reason of booing them down.

    And really sorry Nikhil if you didn’t like any of my comment. I only mean to say as a journalist you are just analyzing historical data which every one is already pricing in. You will see my point if you do some aggressive research or investigative journalism
    Aug 14, 2010. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - We've Seen the Lows for the Year (7/12/10) [View article]
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Jul 14, 2010. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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