you are right that the penetration is very low today but I view this as an opportunity. There seems to be increased interest in it from service providers mainly because it is something that consumers increasingly need.
Thanks. I think video related revenue is more important than sub count. Since 2004, DISH and Comcast have grown video related revenue by well over 50% (DISH has grown faster than Comcast). Comcast's overall subscriber number is only up slightly but its digital subs have gone from a little over 8m to over 21m.
I think it is reasonable to assume that the converts will convert to equity given the far off maturity dates and that is, in fact, the assumption that is effectively used by the Company when they calculate non-gaap EPS - they exclude the interest expense from the converts and add the extra shares to fully diluted shares outstanding.
i think all international including Latin America is a great opportunity for ROVI.
Facebook: At A Positive Inflection Point [View article]
Please note that I am no longer involved in this stock. As I have stated, user engagement is the top risk and there have been some warning signs with respect to this. Its possible the new newsfeed update and graph search will improve engagement but it is too early to know.
thanks. I am not involved in AMAT. I think the stock could work as a medium term trade if semi equipment spending rebounds but if that is your thesis I prefer some smaller, more leveraged names like ACLS. Longer term, almost all semi equipment players will effectively lose share to ASML as lithography becomes a larger and larger portion of semiconductor capex budgets.
Oracle - Unfriendly To Shareholders [View article]
What you say about ORCL can be said about virtually any big cap tech company. Do you also recommend having no exposure to big cap tech in general? When compared to most other tech companies, ORCL actually has given more cash back to shareholders. Buybacks have accelerated and the company most recently bought back about $3b of stock in single quarter. In December, the company accelerated dividend payments before the end of the year because of uncertainty about tax rates for 2013 - something most other companies like AAPL should have done but didn't.
Please note that I have now fully exited my $ASML investment. Since the initial recommendation, the stock has returned over 30% and since I recommended adding to make the position fully sized, the stock has returned over 40% in just a few months. The stock is now discounting a fair amount of positive news. At the same time, risks for EUV shipments being delayed have increased. I will look to buy back lower.
Not interested in AAPL right now. I know the stock is cheap on a pe but it is hard to argue that it is a "value stock". Most of the shareholders are still growth investors and the stock is still up huge over the last 10 years. As I state in my book, the main thing that matters with growth stocks is earnings momentum. I sold in the summer last year after the company missed the June q. Eps estimates then declined over the next 2 quarters. There will be a rotation in the shareholder base that will take some time. Value investors are generally adding and growth/momentum investors are selling. The stock may have a short term bounce, but as a longer or medium term investment, I have more confidence with dynamics of stocks like ORCL. Shareholders of ORCL mostly value investors like Baupost so it has a much better chance to go up with less risk. If earnings momentum and growth improves, growth investors will buy. If they miss estimates, many of these value investors look to add on weakness.
Thanks for the comment. Competitors, clearly have offerings that may or may not take share longer term. The fact is that Oracle also has new products that will be coming out that could take share. Since some of these products are not out, we don't really know how successful they will be. However, my point is that the multiple and earnings estimates already assume that they will NOT be successful. Finally, share shifts in enterprise software tend to happen much slower than people generally anticipate. This is because of the large investments customers make and disruptions/ switching costs that are incurred whenever they want to change vendors,
Definitely was wrong with respect to the apple article you mention, but if you see the disclosure, you will see that I had no position. Also, see my much more bearish article on apple that I wrote a couple of weeks earlier at http://seekingalpha.co.... finally, those who have read my book, know that I sold apple in the summer of last year.
Oracle is actually less technically overbought than the overall market in my opinion. Do you disagree with that assessment?
Rovi: Compelling Reward To Risk [View article]
Rovi: Compelling Reward To Risk [View article]
I think it is reasonable to assume that the converts will convert to equity given the far off maturity dates and that is, in fact, the assumption that is effectively used by the Company when they calculate non-gaap EPS - they exclude the interest expense from the converts and add the extra shares to fully diluted shares outstanding.
i think all international including Latin America is a great opportunity for ROVI.
Rovi: Compelling Reward To Risk [View article]
Facebook: At A Positive Inflection Point [View article]
ASML: A Reasonably Priced Monopoly [View article]
Oracle - Unfriendly To Shareholders [View article]
ASML: A Reasonably Priced Monopoly [View article]
Active Power: A Diamond in the Rough [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle: Incredible Reward To Risk [View article]
Oracle is actually less technically overbought than the overall market in my opinion. Do you disagree with that assessment?