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Ravi Menon

 
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  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    Loved the article and the discussion.
    "...at some point the scheme blows up because it makes no sense to produce and sell to such a nation." Well, that is the real problem - Chinese govt officials have mostly invested in the US. So they really have no incentive to stop the production. And just like the Japanese in the 80s and the Arabs since then who had to recycle dollars, China is also now looking at alternative investments within the US - real estate being one key area. So who knows! This might finally stop only when the Chinese wage inflation encourages US corporations to move production elsewhere.
    May 25, 2013. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is LinkedIn About To Be Facebooked? [View article]
    I would argue that LinkedIn's prospects for revenue and profitability growth are far more sure than Facebook's. Just look at a person who is job-hunting or a sales-guy trying to find a contact inside a firm he wants to sell to. In these two circumstances LinkedIn premium subscription seems like a really small risk payment product. They also do a fine job discouraging people from sending out random attempts to connect even if they have a premium subscription. Entirely different revenue stream - recurring revenue that is more or less assured. Low volatility. Fairly assured cash-flow. LinkedIn still has very low revenue on a per-user basis. There is significant upside in both revenue per user and for the user base to grow. Facebook has almost topped out in terms of User Base (lowering age to 13 to increase subscribers smacks of desperation) and its attempts to monetize its user base is running into some heavy weather. I have no positions in either, but I'd rather put my money into LinkedIn over Facebook at current valuations.
    Jun 6, 2012. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An IBM Wealth Building Strategy [View article]
    Hi David, good analysis and suggestions but I think that transaction costs would eat into a lot of the gains from Strategies 3 & 4. For most retail investors, a single cash equity trade costs $6-10 and options cost even more.
    May 17, 2012. 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If No Trade Reversal Now, Then When? [View article]
    I'd like to add to what Ricardo said - that there are additional ways China earns these surpluses - by keeping costs "low" by subsidising loans, ignoring environmental norms, labor standards etc. which add to the imbalance.
    Mar 21, 2012. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Macro Notes: China, Brazil And Spain Flip The Script [View article]
    Very well argued and I can't agree more with what I consider the crux of the argument that you've expressed succinctly:
    "But when one considers the mean-reverting nature of profit margins as a natural function of capitalism, coupled with the threat of stimulus withdrawal and a less accommodative Fed, the bull case is on shaky ground."
    Mar 7, 2012. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Sign In Equities: 6 Stocks Account For Over 30% Of S&P Rally YTD [View article]
    Thanks for pointing this out. Typically after any sector hots up, there would be comparisons with valuations in other sectors and possibly picking cherry picking stocks from these less favored sectors. Interesting that hasn't happened this time around.
    Mar 7, 2012. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Greece Will Default [View article]
    Wonderfully argued and great analysis!

    I had not been a Euro sceptic until I realized that each country pretty much stuck to its internal policies regarding labor, taxation, corporate governance etc. Add issues such as limited worker mobility and the cheap money that had gushed all over the world under low interest rate regimes and the search for yield and we had all the ingredients for the disastrous situation that we now face!

    Do you see Greece, Portugal and Spain exiting the Euro or reintroducing local currencies in an attempt at making themselves more competitive?
    Feb 7, 2012. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Qwikster Will Die Quickly [View article]
    Thanks! I had looked up films I had on my Netflix queue and found 60-70% of them were available on Amazon (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Fallen Angels by Wong kar Wai...). I think that everything available streaming on Amazon was free for Prime subscribers. I could be wrong...
    Oct 7, 2011. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Qwikster Will Die Quickly [View article]
    Haha - that is true. But how many people want to watch the special features is debatable. I own several DVDs where I've never watched the special features.
    Oct 7, 2011. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Releases Revised Subscriber Estimate, Stock Takes A Nosedive [View article]
    I was hooked on Netflix just because I could do both - stream movies over my BluRay and watch DVDs off the catalog. But now I wonder how much longer I'll keep even my streaming-alone subscription. For DVDs, I have a great local library for renting them!
    Sep 15, 2011. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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