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Ravi Ramenani

 
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  • There Is Irrationality And Then There Is Town Sports International [View article]
    Update: CLUB has completed the sale of their New York property for $85.5M which is a little more than they were expecting to close. Also hedge funds HG Vora and Farallon Capital partners have built significant positions and started pushing the management to reduce Operating expenses and concentrate on BFX studio concept. As I mentioned in the article it will be and interesting next 1 year as BFX studios start taking shape and debt reduction. I believe the easy money is gone when the shares rose from $4/share to $6.5 but depending on how the management contain their Op.Ex. there could be potential for rise above $10.
    Sep 12 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stanley Furniture: Any News Is Good News [View article]
    Historically STLY survived because of 1) "Made in America" brand for Young America and 2) US Customs reimbursing money that was received through import tariff's on other furniture importers. STLY was only profitable due to the US Customs reimbursements. Now, Young America brand is in the process of moving to China and STLY will not receive anything in Customs reimbursement.
    The only way out for this company is 1) Drastically reduce Op.Ex and try to be afloat or 2) Liquidate.
    Sep 7 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Irrationality And Then There Is Town Sports International [View article]
    Adding to HG Vora, Farallon Capital Partners are now 16.5% owners of the company and are planning to push the management. It is going to be an interesting quarter and there after as they complete the sale and as we look at the BFX stores.
    Aug 27 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog: Product Cycle Refresh Provides The Road Map For Substantial Upside [View article]
    Problem with stocks like these are they are both RISKY and UNCERTAIN.
    Risk: You will never know until people actually buy whether their new product line sells.
    UNCERTAIN: It is very hard to predict the future trend in his space. There could be more wearables or big companies may swoopin etc, Even if you assume that their new product line is a success you cannot be confident of what comes next.

    All the best.
    Aug 9 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Irrationality And Then There Is Town Sports International [View article]
    I agree that I should capitalize CLUB's leases as they are important for CLUB's going concern. The reason I did not include: 1) This article focuses on all the moving parts of the evolving story and not any kind of valuation - intrinsic or relative. 2) If I include the capitalized lease as debt in the "Debt Level" section of the article I am not doing justice as I have to take that to its logical conclusion. I have to adjust the corresponding expenses on income statement ie., bring the lease payments down below EBIT. I found it hard to evaluate and put a number of the stock with any kind of confidence.
    Thanks for the comment
    Aug 4 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Irrationality And Then There Is Town Sports International [View article]
    CLUB is planning to contain the current bleeding that is happening by a) remodeling the existing clubs and b) BFX. They intent to use ~$45M in CapEx this year and my guess is some of that is dependent on the sale of this property. I am not too worried about reducing loan as they have decent FCF flowing. Things to follow in the near future will be a) Membership stabilization b) Club cost containment and c) BFX performance.
    Aug 3 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Irrationality And Then There Is Town Sports International [View article]
    CLUB do not own any other property. This 86th st property is owned by CLUB since 1979. So my guess is they will have to pay quite a bit of tax on that.
    Aug 3 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed Bath And Beyond Has A Compelling Opportunity Here And Now [View article]
    Let me try to explain the reasoning behind each of my statement:
    1) FCF/share is much more informative than earnings/share any day as earnings can be manipulatable by various depreciation methods, off-balance sheet items etc., I agree with "value creation" but I try to refrain from estimating Cost of Capital for each business as it kind of subjective and arbitrary number.
    FCF/share gives the owner a perspective of how much cash is going into her "pocket" after all the expenses are paid off.
    2) I agree that ROE is not best of a measure to track but not for the reasons you mentioned. a) Debt will not change Equity as cash would increase in assets to compensate. b) Buybacks would increase return on equity but is that a problem. Isn't it a good thing that a company could maintain/increase earnings with limited assets and reducing equity?
    3) Company's growth rate cannot be more that GDP of the country in the long-run, I said modest rate of 3% because a) They have been growing at much higher % over the last 10 years and b) BBBY is still working on it's online business which could boost the rate higher than 3%.
    Jul 13 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: The Analysis And Probability Of A Bankruptcy [View article]
    Well researched article. I started my investing career in coal and it took me 2 years and 1 bankruptcy to understand the commodity sector completely. There cannot be a more perfect storm for coal companies than 2011 with mega-mergers and coal price decline.
    Jul 8 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed Bath And Beyond Has A Compelling Opportunity Here And Now [View article]
    May be this is the start of margin compression as you said. I do not know. We both have to wait and watch but my bet is BBBY is in a better place to fight that compared to many of it's peers with no debt and higher margins.
    Jul 2 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed Bath And Beyond Has A Compelling Opportunity Here And Now [View article]
    I do not know what is in "store" for future, in terms of online Vs Brick-and-mortar and I do not claim to understand everything. I am only reporting what I observe and as I said in the article history shows that BBBY was able to fight back online competition pretty effectively. Going forward with more location based sales and other apps, I could imagine you searching for an item and BBBY shows up in the results competing against AMZN through price and proximity.
    Also women (majority consumers of Kitchen and items and linens) love to browse through and feel items before buying Vs electronics/books are more standardized and has lower feel factor.
    Jul 2 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JGWPT: Dominant Franchise In A Lucrative Niche Has 75% Upside [View article]
    Hi Kerrisdale, Any thoughts on the results? Always enjoy your research
    May 14 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services Is In For The Long Haul For Those Investors With Iron Stomach [View article]
    Thanks
    May 5 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jewett-Cameron Trading Company: Jewel Among Other Nano Cap Stones [View article]
    I am very skeptical of that myself also. I feel there is a structural change in that segment over the last decade and may be JCTCF is not catching up to it. But that is always a kicker to the valuation if they can figure out the problem. Other segments and the overall FCF is pretty good.
    May 2 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services Is In For The Long Haul For Those Investors With Iron Stomach [View article]
    The way I measure competitive position or "Moat" is existence of following characteristics over long periods (10 Yr)
    a) Growth in revenue AND 2) Maintenance/growth in Gross Margins AND 3) Maintenance/growth in EBIT margins AND 4) Minimal CapEx requirement.

    It doesn't matter if they are able to grow through acquisitions if they pay reasonable price (<10X EBIT) and increase revenue while maintaining their margins which LQDT was able to prove with Jacob's Trading acquisition.
    Apr 18 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
51 Comments
31 Likes