Ray Hendon

Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing

Hi, Les,
I am not aware of much research on currency ETFs. They are probably too new to attract much attention from analysts. However, even if they were I would be skeptical of their opinions. I'm equally skeptical of my own. No one can do much of a reliable prediction in this type of market, in my opinion. Things can turn on a dime at the slightest quiver of a wind from any direction.

I have read a book on trading currencies, and I thought it was fairly good. Remember, all we have are opinions, and currency trading (vs. investing) is not necessairly a teachable subject. The book I read is : Getting Started in Currency Trading by Michael Duane Archer. It is probably out of print, but I found a copy at Amazon. Also, there are a couple of authors who contribute to Seeking Alpha. Chen and Lieu (if my spelling is correct) are two you might check on.

I would encourage you to approach this subject with the greatest caution, and consider, instead, currency investing--something like the carry trade. Trading is fast paced and will eat you up fast if you are not exceptionally able to cope with it. Few are!

Good luck.

Ray0

Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing

I haven't been following CNY, since I detest most ETNs, and your report reaffirms my view on this instrument. I believe CYN is one of the ETNs that doesn't pay dividends, so the interest income, if any (and the Chinese Yuan is the last place I would go to earn interest) you will see only to the extent their forward contracts include any such accumulation. Apparently they are not. The reason for this, I believe, is that China pays less than 1% on their foreign deposits, so that precludes leaving any money there. But, even worse,the yuan is mostly traded through forward contracts which the providers "hope" will include some interest earnings. But, you can't prove that by me--especially with most ETNs.

Also, even Wisdom Tree, whose yuan fund I like more than Van Eck's, only pays dividends on an annual basis--if I recall this correctly. China is not a good place to play the carry trade.

I thank you for your post. Our readers need to know how these differences will affect them and their investments.

Best wishes,

Ray

Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing

For ETFs the providers list their assets under management on a daily basis. For ETNs they list the indicative value, which is the last price per share times the number of shares outstanding.

Best wishes,

Ray

Six Ways to Trade Foreign Currencies

My mistake. The symbol is BZF.

Six Ways to Trade Foreign Currencies

BXF is the trading symbol. It has been actively trading since May 14, 08.

Six Ways to Trade Foreign Currencies

Sam, I haven't made any specific recommendations about individual ETFs or ETNs, except that I own two. The reason I don't make specific recommendations for an investor is that what they buy must depend on what their current exposure to currencies are, among other considerations. For example, granger, in the last comment, has exposure to several European currencies through bond holdings. So, he would not need to have those currency ETFs in his portfolio unless we was shorting them to hedge his bond bets. I simply do not believe that every investor needs to have currency exposure, depending on their attitude about and ability to handle risks.

DBV is a strategy ETF, and I will cover the strategy possibilities in my next post. Note, however, its high expense ratio. Any strategy will come at a cost, so it is a personal questions as to whether the cost is worth it.

Also, I think ETFs and ETNs do properly reflect the small currency movements on a daily basis, depending on how much they trade. It may be some days before the latest price movements are reflected in NAV if the ETF is not trading. But, over the long run, price movements in the currency will be captured.

Granger, good question about proper allocations of currencies to a portfolio. This is not an area that has gained much attention from financial advisors, for currencies as an asset class have not reached critical mass yet, in my opinion. I think that with the new offerings, however, advisors will begin looking more closely at this area.

Six Ways to Trade Foreign Currencies

The expense ratios are important, but with currency funds they are far from the complete story. Also check the bid/ask spreads among the various vendors and the spread between the interest earned and interest paid. Rydex and Wisdom Tree have the lowest ERs, although Elements are also about the same as Rydex. Van Eck is the highest, with a .55% ER. But, recall that ETNs all have futures to buy, and the costs of futures are not included in the overall expense ratio.

In terms of tax implications, the interest earned on ETFs and ETNs is taxable for the year in which it is either paid or declared. But, with ETFs, you at least get the dividends. With ETNs they are added to the total value of your investment but are not paid our. You must sell the shares to capture them, and you must pay the tax on them even though they are not paid out. To me, this gives an edge to ETFs.