Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) has been telling a pretty complicated story for a while and Wall Street doesn't like complex stories. This fact, coupled with the stagnant unitholder quarterly cash distributions, have caused the natives to rumble a bit.

However, upon the first quarter conference call held last week on Thursday morning, company management reported some very positive developments. In this article, I will share with you my views on what I consider the key takeaway items.

Before I go into the details, let's begin with the a chart highlighting price action: Energy Transfer units showed a nice pop leading into and immediately after the first quarter update. This has continued what's been a very solid YTD performance trend.

Energy Transfer Partners -- YTD Price, Volume and Studies

(click to enlarge) ETP units have outpaced the S&P 500, increasing 16 percent since January, without considering two ex-distribution dates

An old investment principle goes something like this: "The rate of return sought by the investor should be proportionate to the amount of risk he / she is prepared to accept." I respectfully see things a bit differently. I believe that investment returns are more or less dependent upon the amount of work the investor is willing and able to put into it.

Shorthand, instead of "Return is driven by risk," I offer that, "Return is a function of intelligent effort."

Before going further, I must point out that I am not suggesting that there is no correlation between returns and risk. Nor am I suggesting that sound investment analysis is guaranteed to generate superior returns. Finally, I am in full agreement with the statement that those unwilling to accept risk should be content with low investment returns.

In this article, I will develop the notion of risk and return

For much of the past decade, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A and RDS.B) management has been saddled with the Wall Street analyst adage, "Show me, don't tell me." Pedestrian business plans produced relatively modest results. A reserve replacement scandal sullied the reputation of the company. Between September 2005, and today the share price has gone nowhere.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) -- Price and Volume 2005-to-Date

(click to enlarge)

courtesy of bigcharts.com

This may finally be changing; thereby presenting investors with a significant investment opportunity.

Under CEO Peter Voser, corporate leadership has focused upon a strikingly straightforward set of 2012-2015 strategies along with clear metrics to measure results. In my last S.A. article about Shell, I outlined these strategies and tactics, then recounted first-year results and Street reactions.

In this article, I will briefly recap the four-year Plan, update readers on Shell's 2013 current and projected progress against the Plan, and

One of my longstanding favorite Industrial stocks is Eaton Corp PLC (ETN). The company offers nearly everything I seek in an equity: good balance sheet, strong margins, earnings growth, dividend growth, and a bankable CEO flanked by an excellent management team. The company is notably shareholder friendly.

In this article, I will review the business, stock catalysts and valuation from an investor's perspective. The analysis comes after Eaton's first full quarter since the Cooper Industries merger. That deal was completed in November 2012.

Eaton Corp PLC -- Price and Volume

(click to enlarge)

courtesy of finviz.com

Executive Summary

Eaton is a diversified power management company. The company's businesses currently consist of five segments: Electrical Products, Electrical Systems, Aerospace, Hydraulics and Vehicles. The company is a provider of electrical products, systems and services for power distribution and control, power transmission, lighting and wiring products; hydraulics components, systems and services for industrial

As an individual investor, I try to evaluate corporate performance and future prospects by boiling down and analyzing several key financial and operational metrics. These may vary by sector, industry and company.

Focusing upon a few important markers can help drown out the din of earnings season editorial journalism, obsession with minutiae, and even outright disinformation. These are the enemies of small investors. Too much background noise can cloud otherwise sound investment decision making.

Intel Corporation (INTC) released 2013 1Q earnings earlier this week. In January, Seeking Alpha editors published an article to my readers about the key metrics I use to track the business.

These metrics are: margins, ASPs, and dividend growth. A general view of the global economy offers an overarching perspective.

In this article, I'll present these items, offer analysis, then pull it all together into a bottom line summary.

Margins

I take a long view when

U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Wells Fargo (WFC) both reported 2013 first-quarter earnings recently. Post-earnings, USB stock fell while WFC shares remained level. I believe both banks are attractive investments. Furthermore, I premise that the two financial institutions have remarkably similar fundamentals, business models and management style.

Perhaps U.S. Bancorp is just a smaller "chip off the old block?" In this article, we will explore that thesis.

U.S. Bankcorp Background

Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp is the parent company of U.S. Bank National Association, the 5th-largest commercial bank in the United States. The company operates 3,084 banking offices, 5,065 ATMs in 25 states, and provides a comprehensive line of banking, brokerage, insurance, investment, mortgage, trust and payment services products to consumers, businesses and institutions.

USB reported 2013 first-quarter earnings on April 16. It was a largely solid report. Nevertheless, the stock fell in response to the release, dipping to $32.72 a share by

I submit there's a specific time for patient buyers to purchase shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) stock. Historically, it has proven to offer a trader a short-term bounce, or an investor a reasonable entry point. The technique has worked for many years; in both up and down markets.

It's related to the fundamentals, but a bit of a quiet quirk of the numbers versus part of an exhaustive analysis: A good time to buy XOM stock is when the trailing twelve month (TTM) price / earnings ratio falls below 9x.

In this article, I will outline ExxonMobil Corporation. First, I'll offer a brief synopsis of the business; then provide several basic fundamentals; and finally, I will demonstrate that "buy below a 9x P/E," has been a bellwether marker in the past.

Company Background

The company's principal business is energy. ExxonMobil Corp is involved in exploration for, and the production of,

Express Scripts (ESRX) merged with MedCo Health Solutions in April 2012, thereby making the combined entity the largest PBM (pharmacy benefit management) corporation in the United States. As an administrative intermediary between health care providers and end users, PBMs attempt to reduce the delivered cost of medications to their clientele via efficiency, scope, and scale.

As measured by scope and scale, Express Scripts is now the undisputed industry king of the hill.

In this article, we will walk through selected ESRX fundamentals to provide rationale to see if the stock may be a suitable equity investment.

Express Scripts' business is highlighted by several clear post merger strengths flanked by a few key question marks.

Express Scripts --One Year Price and Volume

(click to enlarge)

Courtesy of bigcharts.com

Let's summarize some strengths and concerns below, then perform a brief analysis:

Strengths

• Revenue Growth
• EPS Growth
• Strong and Growing Cash Flows
• Aggressive

This article builds upon the Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) report I shared with you in early March, shortly after the 2012 10-K was published. That article may be found here.

Last Thursday, the Energy Transfer organization reached another milestone: agreeing to transfer 100 percent ownership of ETP HoldCo ("Holdco") to Energy Transfer Partners. Holdco is an equity holding company, initially owned 60 percent by Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and 40 percent by Energy Transfer Partners. It was created about mid-year 2012.

The purpose of today's article is to review Holdco assets and valuation, analyze the price paid by ETP to its sister company ETE on the proposed deal, and offer a brief summation as to what it may mean to investors.

The Energy Transfer Press Release

On March 21, Energy Transfer announced further simplification of their corporate structure via the consolidation of "Holdco," into ETP. Here is an excerpt from

There are several good reasons to sell stock of "The General," aka General Mills (GIS). It's had a great near-term run, looks a bit overvalued, and the stodgy Consumer Staples sector isn't where the likely neighborhood for action is in a rebounding economy. Nevertheless, while I don't plan to purchase more GIS at current price levels, it will remain a stalwart component of my portfolio.

In this article, we will confirm the stock fundamentals, review the valuation, then offer a go-forward ownership thesis. Finally, I'll suggest a simple options strategy to juice returns while holding the shares or waiting for a better entry point. Please note the company reports Q3 FY 2013 earnings this Wednesday before the market opens.

General Mills -- Three-Month Price and Volume

(click to enlarge)

Courtesy of bigcharts.com

Background

Nearly everyone recognizes the famous "Cheerios" breakfast cereal box. First marketed in 1941 as "Cheerioats," it remains

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) management tells investors a complicated story. Of late, unusually high acquisition and capital project activity muddied the financial waters. However, the pieces are beginning to fall into place for this Master Limited Partnership, albeit slowly. Senior leadership has been true to its word: ceasing additional M&A activity, rationalizing sprawling existing assets, and improving cash flows.

In this article, we will walk through some of the recent actions, overview financial metrics, and suggest what investors may wish to keep an eye upon going forward.

Organization and Price Chart

The Energy Transfer organization is in a state of flux. Buckle your chinstrap, it's not a simple tale. Check out this organizational structure chart from their recent 10-K filing:

(click to enlarge)

The unit price has gone nowhere for over a year, though the outsized seven to eight percent annual cash distribution has mitigated the stagnant price action.

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) currently sports a trailing twelve-month P/E of 10X. Based upon the discounted cash flow principles underpinning the concept of the Price/Earnings multiple, this makes little sense unless one believes the company no longer has an ability to generate incremental earnings and cash.

This article will explore the thesis in four parts:

• How the P/E ratio relates to Discounted Cash Flow methodology
• What P/E multiple relates to a "no growth" stock versus a growing enterprise
• How the Apple stock P/E has decoupled itself from past and projected earnings metrics
• A summary and concluding thoughts as to what's going on

The P/E Ratio Represents Simplified DCF Methodology

The P/E multiple concept is grounded in Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, more specifically determining the Present Value (PV) of a future series of cash flows. The DCF process discounts these future cash flow back to a single present value number.

The

I believe Mr. Market has undervalued Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) stock since the summer of 2011; likely by over 30 percent. Through review of recent earnings conference calls, the 2012 10-K report, and the historical correlation between price / earnings, I will highlight key aspects of this premise, including:

• Current fundamentals
• Recent developments
• Forward stock value expectations

Background

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. It operates in two segments: Machinery and Power Systems, and Financial Products. CAT closed upon an $8.8 billion deal to purchase Bucyrus International, Inc. on July 8, 2011.

Over the past two years, the stock price has vacillated from below $70 a share to a peak of nearly $117 in February 2012. I submit that the price has flashed green for "undervalued" most of this period.

Caterpillar Two-Year Price and Volume

(click

Let's start with a basic premise: recognizing and countering confirmation bias can result in actionable, investment decision-making improvements that have the ability to positively influence results.

I submit that confirmation bias is one of the more insidious pitfalls we face. I will define the term as follows:

Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.

This psychological behavior is not limited to investors. Indeed, it prevails within nearly all human decision-making processes. However, for the investor, the tendency has point-specific consequences: you will lose money. The loss may be direct portfolio performance sub-optimization, or wasting energy battling oneself as to why investments go bad when you know "you're right" versus moving on to the next analysis / decision.

Not only will confirmation bias interfere with interpreting investment information, it will has the propensity to cause investors

Sometimes, investors get a second chance to purchase a good stock "on sale." Aflac Incorporated (AFL) has presented itself as such a candidate, recently falling nearly 7.5 percent immediately following its fourth quarter earnings announcement and conference call.

Aflac has been one of my favorite investment ideas since mid-November 2012, but it has been difficult to build a full position. After purchasing initial shares during a brief dip below $50, the stock price has continually "run away" from me.

Aflac Incorporated -- Six-month Price and Volume

(click to enlarge) Courtesy of bigcharts.com

The recent pullback has permitted additional investment at approximately $50 to $51 a share.

In this article, we will review investment premises for owning Aflac stock, discuss the reasons for the recent share price dip, and conclude with my expectations for the stock going forward.

Why Invest in Aflac?

AFL is the holding company for two primary supplemental

How sentiment and perspective make a difference on Wall Street.

Let's take a look at the Royal Dutch Shell's (RDS.A) earnings release and conference call held on Thursday.

Shell senior management touted fulfilling the first year of their four-year financial growth plan. CEO Peter Voser outlined the plan objectives, its results, then capped it off by declaring the expectation of a five percent increase in the third quarter dividend.

Here's a summary slide from the conference call presentation:

(Click to enlarge)

Wall Street promptly threw up all over it, dissing the numbers and pounding the shares down about three percent. Shares are down again today.

Here's my take on the call, the results, and why Wall Street is fretting.

The Plan

Shell management had previously announced an ambitious, 2012-to-2015 financial growth plan. There are four cornerstones:

• Improve operating cash flows between 30 and 50 percent versus the previous four-year

Intel Corp (INTC) fourth quarter earnings report was mixed; management outlined some operating strengths, but the news was overshadowed by weak 2013 guidance and concerns over high forward R&D / capital costs. The Street punished the stock. Shares fell over six percent on high volume the day after the release.

Intel Corp -- Six month Price and Volume

(click to enlarge)

courtesy of bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Did investors panic? Is it time to double down? Is a turnaround at hand?

Let's take a look at some longer-term, historical margin figures and the trends in these underlying measures. I submit that INTC margins harmonize themselves with the overall direction of INTC business.

Every company has particular metrics that tend to align with the overall business. These metrics may be financial or operational. In the case of Intel, senior leadership has long measured margins as key corporate markers. More specifically, gross margin has been

My favorite bank stock is undoubtedly Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC). Friday's 2012 Q4 earnings conference call simply reinforced my opinion of the company.

In this article, we will review my investment thesis for owning the stock, discuss the recent conference call takeaways, outline and add perspective to Wall Street's worries about Wells Fargo, and offer target valuation metrics.

Wells Fargo & Co - One Year Price and Volume

(click to enlarge) bigcharts.com

Investment Thesis

Wells Fargo securities offer several compelling investment considerations. Here is a short list of my reasons for owning the stock:

• The bank engages in a simple, straightforward business model. WFC takes in cash through bank deposits and makes consumer and commercial loans. Profits are made through net interest income (essentially the differential between what the bank pays depositors and what interest it collects via loan payments), and non-interest income (what the bank collects

It's good to have a plan.

Today, I offer my 2013 investment game plan for your review and comment. Following the same format and sequence as the past two years, I intend to submit a mid-year and year-end review on this plan to S.A. editors for publication; outlining results and sharing my 2013 course adjustments with you.

The plan is relatively short and simple. I begin with a set of macro assumptions, and then organize an investment strategy around it.

Please note that I consider myself an "investor" versus a "trader." What this means is that while I occasionally stake a short-term trade, my style is to try to uncover undervalued securities and invest or a minimum of twelve to eighteen months as they (hopefully) reach fair value. I re-evaluate the investment thesis for each security routinely. My portfolio tends to include a limited number of positions that

In early January 2012, Seeking Alpha editors published my article, "My 2012 Investment Game Plan." The link is found here.

As I have done in years past, I followed up with a 2012 mid-year review that was published in July.

I am now writing with a full year lookback at the general plan assumptions and their accuracy. Then I will offer results and analysis of the primary investments contained in that plan. Included is commentary on 2012 portfolio adjustments, and finally, my promise to write you again shortly with my "2013 Investment Game Plan."

For clarity, I have italicized original segments from the January 2012 article, then followed up with a short discussion after each section.

"My 2012 Investment Game Plan" Basic Assumptions

The global economy continues to move forward, but the European wildcard has the ability to create an unusually wide range of growth outcomes. Indeed, the EU