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Ray Merola  

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  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Good additional color on the subject, danot. Thank you.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    DP, thank you for helping and contributing to this comment board and its readers.

    Much appreciated.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Dividend Paradise provided an excellent summary below. There's also considerable detail found on the Shell web site. The end decision does depend upon your jurisdiction and tax situation.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    The Shell dividend is paid in USD. Despite being an Anglo-Dutch company, RDS corporate business is conducted in dollars. There is no forex implications for U.S. investors.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Many thanks, jgaltbna

    Under the premise that Arctic exploration work run the normal course of business, I believe it has relatively minor impact on cash flow. Arctic work is a 10-year endeavor from initial exploration to prospective commercial production. I suspect no more than $1 billion a year or so initially. (On a relative scale, Shell spends ~$33 billion a year capex).
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Recently, Shell announced about 6500 staff worldwide will be laid off.

    Your comment surprises me. Having worked for Shell U.S. for over 30 years, I never saw forced layoffs where no severance package was offered. A package was offered to all staff, even to employees that only had a year or two with the Company. I find it very difficult to believe Shell would layoff 10 or 20 year employees with nothing. Many international employment laws do not allow this.

    Represented (union) workers were awarded severance in accordance with their contract provisions.

    I worked in various U.S. Downstream organizations.


    Aug 29, 2015. 01:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Thank you, Bill

    Even if the price of oil is low, I believe Shell would continue to pay the dividend out past 2016. There's a lot of runway before topping out the gearing.

    A couple of other thoughts:

    Shell is an integrated major, not an E&P Company. In 2015 2Q, the Downstream generated $3 billion earnings and nearly $4 billion operating cash flow. DS success isn't contingent upon energy prices: often refining and marketing spread widen when prices are low, plus demand increases for Oil Products.

    Shell also has several large projects come online soon. The capex for these is largely spent already. Therefore, the incremental production begins to generate incremental cash flow, while at the same time depreciation charges reduce EPS but not cash flow.

    Aug 28, 2015. 10:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    You're welcome, wanker

    All the best.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Deepwater

    Thank you for the kind words and taking the time to comment.

    I haven't researched BP like Shell. However my sense is that BP, as another Brit- EU centered business, will be loathe to cut the payout. After the Macondo tragedy, heads were rolling.

    While there's no requirement to maintain or raise dividends either here or across the pond, I believe there's a bit of an implied "social-compact" that's different here than there.

    Aug 28, 2015. 06:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Lallemand

    I tend to agree with you. Indeed, the upshot of the article wasn't that Shell is the best energy company stock in the space. It had to do with dividend safety.

    I like EOG, HAL and ETE. However, for an income play with a back-loaded capital appreciate "kicker," I gotta like RDS. You know, year-to-date, RDS.A is "middle of the pack" among the Super Major energy companies.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    You've got a big basket of energy stocks there, Cowboy!
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Appreciate the encouragement, rhiannion

    As a 30-year Shell employee, I own "A" shares because that's what the Company awarded employees.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Correct, danot

    Shell has a long history of dividend increases. It was working on over 20 consecutive years of dividend increases prior to 2015. However, while leaving the door open, management has effectively telegraphed investors should not expect a bump through 2016.

    Energy prices are cyclical. We are at low-ebb now. Things change in the oil field; it's not a static business.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    I have legged into RDS shares slowly on the way down. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have started later. However, the overall incremental basis versus my core position is quite good.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words, retired358

    Good to know another ex-Shell guy is thinking the same. While the data offers a reasonable argument, I believe the internal culture of the corporation adds to the probability it won't be cut.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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