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Ray Merola  

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  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    I have legged into RDS shares slowly on the way down. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have started later. However, the overall incremental basis versus my core position is quite good.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words, retired358

    Good to know another ex-Shell guy is thinking the same. While the data offers a reasonable argument, I believe the internal culture of the corporation adds to the probability it won't be cut.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Appreciate your comments, nicholas

    Indeed, Shell isn't a bond substitute for many reasons. See chuck's comments above and mine in response to wanker.

    All the best.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    chuck

    We're aligned. Check out my comment to wanker above. Thanks....
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Thank you, wanker

    Why do you think Shell is dead money for a few years? Based upon what information / analysis?

    Unless junk bond funds are leveraged, most do not pay 7.5% after fees. Nor is the interest taxed at a preferential rate. Nor do junk issuers command a AA- credit rating like Shell.

    I actually wrote a S.A. article published in 2013 that included discussion about the Shell dividend versus junk bonds. You may find it interesting, given your comments. Here's the link.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Within the article, check out Case Three.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:57 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble Has Been Pushed Into The 'Buy' Zone [View article]
    Thanks, maybenot

    I had an earlier slug of PG stock at 3.7% yield. "We done good" at that price, too.
    Joseph teed things up well in his article.

    For info, S.A. editors just published an article of mine today.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble Has Been Pushed Into The 'Buy' Zone [View article]
    Earlier in the week, I purchased some additional PG shares when the yield hit 4%. Probabilities make it difficult to pass that up: a Dividend Aristocrat offering 4%.

    P&G is in transition now, but the Company will right itself eventually. CEO Lafley (sp?) had an interesting comment recently. It was along the lines, "If we weren't facing unprecedented currency headwinds, we wouldn't be having this discussion." The 'discussion' to which he was referring was questions by analysts about why EPS wasn't growing. Forex is transitory, not a forever event.

    The strategy of selling brands, etc. will take a few quarters to settle out. Selling is only half the story.
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Price Action: What The Hell Is Going On Out Here? [View article]
    AiF

    Excessive pessimism often breeds opportunity for those who see the other side of the trade. It appears we are among those who do.
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Addressing The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Concerns [View article]
    Foozy

    You may be surprised how little cash Shell has needed to "borrow" one year into the collapse in oil prices to fund the dividend. It's not much more than a blip on the screen. Current Royal Dutch Shell "gearing" has actually has gone down year-over-year.

    No one knows for sure where energy prices are heading, nor the future of Shell Oil. However, given the current circumstances, I believe the situation isn't as dire as some pundits make it out. Of course, this could change.

    I've got an article into S.A. editors that goes into some of the details about RDS cash flow, balance sheet gearing, and history of the dividend. Management has also gone on record with some salient comments about the payout.

    I suggest the dividend is safe.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. railroad traffic down 1% YTD [View news story]
    Despite the pundits, American Class I railroads are not going out of business. Carloads are down modestly. Specific to UNP: coal, while in secular decline, will rebound as mine flooding and track damage depressed 1H carloads severely. Generally, freight rates were up for most commodities.

    I believe the stock traded above fair value above $105-$110; now they're undervalued. Long UNP.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Addressing The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Concerns [View article]
    Christopher

    I agree with your underlying thesis: Shell will not cut the dividend.

    I just submitted an article to S.A. editors, further developing your thoughts via a deeper line of reasoning. In addition to history, Shell has cash flow, the balance sheet, and other "levers" that should enable it to maintain the payout for a long time.
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Price Action: What The Hell Is Going On Out Here? [View article]
    J38765

    I agree with you on that one!
    Aug 27, 2015. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity Knocks To Power Your Portfolio With Eaton Corp. Plc [View article]
    Thank you for a thorough and well-articulated case for Eaton Corporation, PIP

    The shares certainly appear discounted today. The company has the attributes of a fine investment: well-managed, sound balance sheet, strong franchise, earnings profits in cash, and is shareholder-friendly.

    One negative not mentioned: CEO Sandy Cutler plans to retire in May 2016. He has been a driving force behind the success of the company.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Price Action: What The Hell Is Going On Out Here? [View article]
    Yes, GM wasn't interested....at least outwardly, and at this time. I believe I agree with CEO Mary Barra. Right now, GM has plenty to re-organize, including the Cadillac brand, getting EU straightened out, securing the China market, and of course working through the ignition-switch tragedy and related corporation culture. I suspect Marchionne wasn't willing to give away FCAU, either.

    I suspect Fiat/Chrysler needs GM more than the other way around, and GM has other fish to fry. At least that's my current view of the matter.
    Aug 26, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schlumberger’s bid for Cameron makes sense, analysts say [View news story]
    Does this potential deal have any implication with respect to the HAL/BHI acquisition? Currently, HAL v BHI arbitrage spreads indicate Mr. Market is not sure the Halliburton transaction will close.

    Does the prospective SLB deal imply they believe the HAL combo will close, and wishes to do its own deal?
    Aug 26, 2015. 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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