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Ray Merola

 
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  • AT&T Presents Dividend Investors With Yet Another Buying Opportunity [View article]
    RS

    While asset growth is a reasonable metric for AT&T, I prefer to focus upon shareholder equity. This measure also continues to advance; reflecting overall creation of shareholder value.

    Dividend coverage as a function of FCF remained positive at 1.15x. Lower than previous quarters, the payout remains secure and a clear corporate priority. Capex is projected to ease just a bit in 2015.
    Jul 25 02:03 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Strategies And Stocks: Part 6, International Paper [View article]
    Thanks for the additional color. A MLP structure is an interesting new take on an old business.
    Jul 25 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Strategies And Stocks, Part 8: Energy Transfer Equity [View article]
    Yes. The earnings call for ETE are most instructive. I review it carefully, then re-forecast my outlook. Based upon the most recent, the future remains bright.
    Jul 24 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Strategies And Stocks, Part 8: Energy Transfer Equity [View article]
    galicianova

    While I'd prefer the benefit of the upcoming earnings report, my inclination is that even at these levels ETE still looks good based upon a reasonable multiple of cash flow / FFO. It appears the runway remains strong.
    Jul 23 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Provides Expose On Halliburton [View article]
    Nice article, Bret

    Halliburton management can make a plausible case that it has become a best-of-breed oil service company, the mantle which Schlumberger has
    held singularly for years.

    HAL margins and revenues are poised to improve, thereby offering more runway.
    Jul 21 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton: Target Met Again, Raised Again [View article]
    Dan

    Thanks for the kind words, but DAG1996 wrote this article!

    Are you speaking of another S.A. that I wrote?
    Jul 20 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    AD

    You've identified several of the major shortcomings in the current-day analyst model. The field is marked by a skew to buy, a herd mentality, and a hesitancy to criticize management teams that provide them access and accommodation that most individual investors don't get.

    My view is individual investors must do their own analysis. Fortunately, the data is out there; however, many do not have the time or inclination to grind into the fundamentals. It's easier to obtain analyst recommendations, etc. I agree following the Wall Street community is unlikely to be a sustained alpha recipe.
    Jul 20 07:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton: Target Met Again, Raised Again [View article]
    27975573

    I have not reverse engineered the business quite that way.

    Please note that I invest in a limited number of securities.

    However, through other investments I can see the resilience and strength of the HAL business model:

    Union Pacific Railroad ships frac sand throughout the Western U.S., including many of the most prolific onshore fields. This segment is doing well, which bodes well for the Halliburton. HAL emphasizes North American onshore drilling services.

    Energy Transfer Partners moves hydrocarbons. The company is expanding rapidly. Increasing demand for oil and gas transportation is a positive for Halliburton. It indicates sustained exploration and production activity.

    Notably, HAL does a considerable amount of business overseas. Here, Mexico and Brazil are short-term headwinds.

    I expect a good earnings report from Halliburton management tomorrow.
    Jul 20 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    Good reply, Bruce

    LEAPS do require careful diligence. The buyer is leveraged. However, another facet is that your downside is limited.

    I like to use LEAPS when starting a position in a stock that does not pay any dividend, or a very small one. By using deep-in-the-money calls, one can control XX shares with far less capital than buying long.
    Jul 18 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    Thanks smurf

    Good point. I don't like it when everyone is falling all over themselves raising price targets on a stock. A bit of a share price drop back could be helpful here; get some of the front runners off the track.
    Jul 17 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    Currant85

    Good, thoughtful question. No, Buffett Metrict #3 is not the same as the CCR I provided. However, Buffett has stated this is a litmus test for him, too. Mr. Buffett, within a list of attribute for 'wonderful businesses,' has said, "They see their profits in cash."

    Retained earnings to market value is a bit different. Ibex article was good reading. I read once and want to go back and re-read it again.

    Note how Buffett also emphasizes return on equity.

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts......


    Jul 17 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    azazelahh

    This is a most interesting set of links. Thank you for sharing it. Food for thought. Intel has the intellect and financial strength to be the launching pad for all manner of new technologies. At its core, IoT is commercial and industrial applications, many of which may translate to consumer use. Fascinating.

    Author's Pick......
    Jul 17 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    Pala Frank

    Most interesting observation. I try to use the economic business cycle as a rough investment template. The tech sector tends to lead out when industrial production expands. As noted, the business tends to stretch and over-build, leading to tough pricing and fall back.

    What I question is the server chip market. Is this likewise a cyclical business, or is it one in secular growth? I tend to lean on the latter, based upon Intel's history and the fact that the company dominates the industry: over 90% coverage.

    The other interesting (though small currently) segment is The Internet of Things. This could end up being a real spoiler, though it's got a way to go before it can move the needle on a company as large as Intel.

    It appears mobile is a cut-throat low-margin business. What if Intel decided to run for hybrids (like tablets), IoTs, and continued powerhouse sales in servers? Could that be enough to carry the day?
    Jul 17 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    Tom

    I believe AFL has restructured their investment portfolio to the betterment of the shareholders. The exposure to PIIGS is down. Japanese bond exposure is up, tamping down returns, but investments in other geographies help offset that.
    Jul 17 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Companies With Overpriced Stocks: Part 3, Intel Corp [View article]
    JSG

    Interesting take, but my experience says that it's very difficult to "PR" major stock moves; particularly when over 60% of the shares are controlled by institutional investors.

    Based upon the fundamentals, and management guidance, it would appear that it's possible for INTC to make $2.20 to $2.32 this year. Without considering 2015, and a 16x multiple gives a $37 stock.

    Agree that Intel is a bit "hot" now, and its due for a pullback which appears to be happening today.

    A reduction in fab capex and contra-revenue could provide the "ticket to the future" you've noted.

    Thanks for reading.
    Jul 17 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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