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Ray Merola  

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  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part III [View article]
    cool beans, Jennifer! thank you. happy 4th of July.
    Jul 3, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    Veritas1010

    Thank you for commenting, and the very kind words.

    Exxon is one of those stocks whereas it's hard to argue ownership. Up or down, thick or thin, it's just a staple, and a titan of American investing. In many ways, Royal Dutch Shell represents to Europe what ExxonMobil is here.

    You've got a slice of both.

    Wishing you a safe and happy Independence Day weekend.
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating GM's 2016 Earnings [View article]
    Thank you for a well reasoned article.

    I wonder if resolution of the ignition switch issue / DoJ fine will lift the overhang on the shares. Fundamentals are good; price action has been horrible.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    Appreciate the kind words and upbeat message, CapeCap

    All the best to you and your family, too.

    Ray
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management And The Fake Discount To Book [View article]
    RS

    The problem is the management agreement; which was approved by shareholders in 2013. I am not making excuses for NLY management; however, if shares are repurchased, it takes money out of their pockets.
    Management is remunerated by improving book value, not BV per share.

    The agreement needs to be changed. I've written Vanguard (one of the 2 largest shareholders) about it. Also sent a complimentary letter to the director of Artisan, a fund that wrote Annaly directors and management about enacting a buyback plan.
    Jul 2, 2015. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simply Outrageous Call On Gold [View article]
    Appreciated highly the article containing most interesting insights and commentary about the yellow metal.

    However, I had to get past the $25K prediction in 50 years.

    I'll surely be dead before then....
    Jul 2, 2015. 01:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Union Pacific imposing big surcharge on older crude railcars [View news story]
    literally....and there's a number of oil pipelines being built. while it will not undo crude-by-rail, it will put a pretty big dent in it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    djsulli

    I think that's a good bet. Van Beurden appears to have a different mindset, but I've been disappointed time before. However, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. While in Shell Chemical, he was known for a no-nonsense approach, cost discipline, and focus upon returns.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    Jeff B

    This series of articles has focused upon the balance sheet. In the preface, I noted that accurately forecasting cyclical companies' earnings and cash flow is very difficult during periods of high commodity volatility.

    Furthermore, the balance sheet is not in the past. It is the financial foundation of a business viewed as a snapshot in time. The balance sheet is no less current than the most recent EPS or cash flow statement. The cash flow statement may be likened to a corporate checkbook.

    My work on S.A. emphasizes cash flow (and free cash flow) as much as earnings; hence my saying, "Find well-managed companies with a sound balance sheet, strong franchise, that earning profits largely in cash, and are shareholder-friendly."
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: PC Weakness Priced In [View article]
    INTC price action seems harsh when compared to Street consensus revenue forecasts. On the 1Q report, I believe management indicated Intel's 2015 fortunes were "back-end loaded" to the second half of the year.

    Let's see what they have to say here shortly.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: PC Weakness Priced In [View article]
    I've owned Intel shares since '09. Quite disappointed with the recent price action (after a strong 2014 performance). As a long-term investor, I'm tuned into upcoming earnings release and conference call. Management should provide some insight for 2H 2015 and perhaps beyond.

    Intuitively, it appears investors are too pessimistic on Intel's future prospects. Some hard data points will help out considerably.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management And The Fake Discount To Book [View article]
    Good piece, CWM

    I wonder if Annaly management upped leverage to help offset potential dollar roll losses? I'm expecting a significant drop in net book, but was more optimistic on 2Q NIM and core net income.

    Looking forward, Annaly hired several commercial investment bigshots. Not much news on it. I believe it's an interesting step: one might surmise the company plans to make a significantly more meaningful shift towards CRE securities?

    Jul 2, 2015. 08:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    Pretty tight lid on the timing, James84

    But I like your style. Let's see how it all pans out.
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    UncleE

    I have been slowing buying in small increments every 4-5% down or so. While I have no insight on it, I suspect at $54 we will see a bottom. That's a ~7% yield on a stock that hasn't cut the cash dividend since 1945.
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part IV [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words, warno1

    55 years....I guess that makes you a long-term investor, huh? Impressive.
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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