I am a commodities/macro speculator. I've been trading for my own account for about 12 years now so I must be doing something right.

A lot of my trading is aimed at catching low-probability events or "Black Swans"; it was amusing to read that book when it came out as I had been following exactly what Mr. Nassim Taleb calls a "barbell strategy" ever since I started trading.

I believe speculators add a lot of value to society, but only if they trade in the right direction, i.e. towards equilibrium, which is often but not always the same as mean reversion. Trend following magnifies volatility and subtracts value; mean reversion style trading adds value and is far more profitable, at least for me.

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