Raymond Micaletti

History Favors the Bulls

The above results coupled with recent "breadth thrust" readings do suggest the market will continue upward in the near-term (perhaps with minor corrections along the way). The one thing that would be interesting to include with the above study, however, is to see how far off the bottom stocks had to climb before the 200-day moving average began rising. A cursory look at the 2003 bottoms suggests that the 200-day turned upward when stocks where perhaps 20% off the bottom. In contrast, stocks were nearly 50% off the bottom before the 200-day turned positive this time--that *may* alter the dynamics going forward.