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  • Copper Or The S&P 500: Which Is Wrong? [View article]
    Copper has long been considered a proxy for global growth. This is both intuitive and backed up by historical data that I didn't consider material to what I was doing here. Within that framework I was looking at a significant breakdown of a relationship within the last few years for the purposes of examining short-term spreads. This is why I looked at daily prices rather than monthly. Long-term price forecasting would require a longer sample period.

    From a qualitative standpoint, the relationship has broken down because of concerns over China's economic slowdown. I believe, for reasons stated in the article, that the market overreacted to a certain degree to these concerns.
    Feb 14 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Or The S&P 500: Which Is Wrong? [View article]
    Good question, Mike. I have used these variables in the past (though generally shorter-term treasuries than 20+) , but this was specifically focused on the correlation of the equity market and copper prices, especially considering my general feeling that the market over-reacted to China's slowdown last year.
    I am working on a project involving copper/gold spreads that will include some of these more macro variables, and hopefully I will be able to post about it here early next week.
    Feb 14 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Or The S&P 500: Which Is Wrong? [View article]
    Emerging market demand ex-China in addition to supply deficits (BMO analyst Jessica Fung just predicted 36,000 ton shortfall this year) should push prices even higher. I think that's what we're seeing in a lot of commodities, except in cases of supply gluts (like shale gas).
    Feb 14 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kevin Puil: $4/lb Copper Is On Its Way [View article]
    First Quantum has some very promising property in Zambia after getting their mining license revoked in the DRC back in 2010. Zambia has great average ore grades of 2-3% in copper and is a much more favorable business environment than the DRC, in spite of recent royalty increases.
    Feb 6 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Of Breed: A Comeback For American Strategic Metals? [View article]
    You are right, Quest saw a significant jump in their resource at the end of October and I hadn't realized that it vaulted their Quebec project over Bokan Mountain's overall numbers. The market didn't seem to, either, or maybe the investing public has just had enough of rare earths for the time being.
    Dec 17 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Of Breed: A Comeback For American Strategic Metals? [View article]
    I do not have a specific inventory of Bokan Mountain project's infrastructure, but I know there has been a lot of previous mining activity at the site (going back to the 50's), which generally presents a capex advantage. The power situation you describe is duly noted and I thank you for the contribution to fellow readers.

    I've mentioned that UCore is subject to the same risks as any junior pre-production miners. If you find them to be too speculative, then this is not an appropriate asset class for your portfolio.
    Nov 20 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Would Coal Stocks Perform Under A Romney Presidency? [View article]
    ANR lost more of its relative value during the coal decline of the past year. My guess is that value investors think that the relative performance of the companies will move in parallel over time so the bigger short-term loser is the better long-term value. From most indications, BTU is a stronger company.
    Nov 2 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strike Price: Time To Profit From Newstrike Capital's Gold Exploration? [View article]
    Thank you, glad you enjoyed it. Miners rarely get much coverage before their maiden resource statement, but it's also rare that they establish themselves so quickly. The buzz about Newstrike has mostly been among analysts and investors rather than the press, but the company was mentioned in a WSJ article about Mexican Gold Mining back in July, for which there is a link in the first paragraph.
    Oct 23 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: Worth Another Look [View article]
    Argentina is a highly risky country, even in the resource sector on which its economy depends. In fact, a study by MIT professor Alberto Cavallo showed that the country's public finances were far more dire than the official numbers indicated. However, many of the mining majors have big projects in countries with far greater risk factors in terms of economics, security and policy. You have to look at the overall risk profile of a company's projects, and Argentina aside, Mexico, Brazil and Chile are all very solid mining jurisdictions.
    Oct 19 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: Worth Another Look [View article]
    Good article. Yamana's acquisition of Extorre is a good example of bigger miners turning away from boondoggle M&A deals and trying to find efficient, low capex projects.
    Oct 18 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment