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  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    I am extremely knowledgeable about evolution and I am certain I know far more about it than you. I am a believer. I fear that like a minority of gel-jocks, you may have the same problem seeing beyond the bench. I now suppose you believe in evolution. Now start believing that other people behave in ways different than you and those differences may drive sales more than esoteric knowledge of clinical trials.
    Jul 20, 2013. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Scroll up to the top and read the title. I do believe my title has a question mark.
    Jul 20, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    I previously indicated the 3-4x estimates are not for me, but for readers with high expectations. If I were wrong, they had a graphic to look at. I often write articles in which I discuss possibilities that are not my beliefs. Case in point:
    The only thing I did wrong was rush in at the last sec to add 340 instead of 240. Oops. The rest is correct and based on factors I clearly identified.
    Everyone makes mistakes and you want to someone prove that a person making one mistake is 100% wrong? How many times did you have to repeat your experiments? Never? Ever have to toss results out? Never? How many postdocs before a permanent position? You may be a good scientist, but you can be wrong x% of the time as can I. I have enough common sense to relate to real people and can put myself in their situation to understand human nature. Thus, I can see things you cannot, e.g., % weight loss by real-world patients instead of just regurgitating facts from papers or books. When you see the light, let me know.
    Jul 20, 2013. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    The issue is that you are stuck in the clinical trial phase and I am in the real world phase. Thus we seem incapable of communication as I noted before re global warming/creationism vs evolution. I understand where you are and you are correct in making your claims re the past.

    It is too early to determine if Belviq is growing linear or exponential. Exponential growth looks linear when you look at data points that are close.
    Jul 20, 2013. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Josh, I suppose you are angry that I pointed out in your article that it was inappropriate to claim after 3 data points that Arena would miss estimates. Furthermore, you and PE falsely imply that Belviq patients will lose about 3.7% of their weight by using inappropriate logic and math. Furing the studies the average weight loss for non-responders and responders could be portrayed as A = (∑ z / Nz) + (∑ r) / Nr) where z = non-responders, r = responders, A = average, Nz = # non-responders, and Nr = # responders. By implying that Belviq patients will lose on average A amount of weight you argue that z/ Nz = r/ Nr when we all know that they are unequal. After a year, the average Belviq patient will lose r/ Nr weight. If I am wrong go on quoting pre-FDA studies ad nauseum. If not fess up and state the obvious and prove you are not a hard-core basher. Also let me know what the placebo adjustment will be for patients outside of studies.

    You attack me for my use of "script-writing days" or "Dr. workdays" instead of pharmacy workdays. I wrote an article stating that this method was better than traditional methods for in some instances.

    Instances when my method works include weeks when a new drug is introduced in the middle of a week and on holidays. In effect you seem to agree but will not state so. Why? Because you use five day workweeks and pharmacies run on 6 or 7-day weeks. Thus, make up your mind. If you have a problem with script-writing days (or Dr. workdays) just say so. Please explain your error. If you researched before you wrote your article about Belviq, perhaps you would not have made the same error or complained about my methods when I first wrote about it instead of issuing this post facto lament.

    Again, I noted that many scientists are out of touch with the public and it is harming science. Indeed this conversation with you I feel like I'm dealing with a creationist or someone who doesn't believe in global warming. You can't acknowledge the fact that sales reps were detailing doctors about Belviq on June 7. What makes you think that it only began on the 11th? If you stick with the 11th, you must somehow believe that pharmacies and not doctors write scripts. Am I debating someone who believes the world is flat or someone who failed to follow the news or research Arena?

    You attack me about the number of workdays for the holiday week. Perhaps when you were a postdoc you spent too much time on the bench to notice how your lab thinned out before holidays and that the halls relatively empty. The rest of us know that people take vacations just before and after holidays to take advantage of the extra day. I know some doctors that do so. Psing a three day workweek for the holiday week may not be perfect but nor is a four day are two day week. It is a nice compromise.

    You claim I should lower my expectations because Belviq did not meet the my estimate? Why should I when growth is double-digit per week? As if long stated it is too early to tell, but logic indicates Belviq will be a great success.
    Jul 20, 2013. 02:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Son of Day you love distorting other peoples views. When will you admit you are wrong about the number of days scripts were written? When will you admit you cannot predict sales a year out on 2 data points? When will you admit you are wrong about what I thought would be good sales? Why don't you post about stocks you invest in? Our resident seer!
    Jul 19, 2013. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Anti-Obesity Drug Company Stocks Trade In Tandem? [View article]
    H, that is impressive.
    Jul 19, 2013. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Remember this article is using #s from Symphony not IMS. The IMS # out today is a 21% increase over the last full week of data, but a decrease on a per day basis from the holiday week. This is probably due to the holiday week generating few scripts and the lag between writing scripts and picking them up. E.g., Friday's are picked up F-Monday, decreasing over time, but still significant. Holiday week lacked scripts for Thur and Friday, possibly Wed in some cases.
    Jul 19, 2013. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Good Q re rate of growth. I started writing an answer and think it is best to do an article on it (especially since I want sleep and have yet to respond to an important email). In short, put yourself in the doctor's shoes. My initial model had doctors increasing scripts linearly each month and by adding new doctors each month it began looking a bit sigmoidal even with the elimination of non-responders. Make sure you remind me if I forget next week!

    I have few expectations especially after how and why this stock moves as it does. I merely look at data suggest logical possibilities and let people chose ones that best fit their reasons for investing.

    I suspect we will see a lot of Belviq sold within a year. I will be pleased if Eisai meets its goals, but I think we will see $250M+ My other hope is to get manipulators to move elsewhere.
    Jul 19, 2013. 02:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Good Q Sedric.
    1/3 patients have insurance and pay full price. 2/3 get $75 off. Every year more will be paying the full amount through their insurance.

    Why stay on: Read testimonials re the drug. Especially focus on the diabetics who are reducing their expensive and unhealthy diabetes meds. B is differs from prior drugs that acted on patients metabolism (speed) or affected patients digestive system. You needed to have the drive of a rhino to stay on those. It also helps moods, reduces craving (think about being hungry and watching someone eat, now multiply that several fold for much of the day), increases satiety and will save lots of money on food and apparently the antidiabetic drugs patients are reducing. Patients are even sticking themselves with fewer insulin needles
    Human factor is most important, so just put yourself in their shoes and think about it.
    Read this article which may help you understand.
    Jul 19, 2013. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Excuse me J, I am not mistaken. I specifically stated I use DOCTOR workdays in this and all articles because they drive sales. You want to use some undefined workday. B was available in stores for 4 days the first week and 7 days the last week. Big difference. Yet, docs can prescribe and a patient can store a script for a long time. In the first week, patients could have stored for at least two days before sales began. Some may have held them longer since I am aware of doctors who predated scripts well in advance. In the final week, doctors had 3 workdays max. Many probably took off 3-5 days. I used 3. In the last week, patients could still have been holding scripts from the 1st week, but that does not matter and is immeasurable.

    That is where you are wrong. Please go read my last article so you can understand that doctors are the ultimate driver for scripts. Stores are proximate factors and can be open 24/7 and still not affect the # of scripts sold. You must be aware of that since you did not argue for a 7-day week.

    Again, the rest of your argument is moot because I use doctor workdays because that is what truly matters.

    Rarely does my method matter since we generally subtract for holidays. My method allows us to capture both the unique and normal events without confusion. This is not rocket science.
    Jul 19, 2013. 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    PE, no conspiracy of commentators that I am aware of here.

    I did not project $1B. I merely said that is the trajectory. I even stated growth would drop into the single digits and ended the title with a "?." Nor did I assign any curves or graphs beyond the known data. Please let the data speak for itself. Maybe this article was necessary since our high powered UCSF friend forgot to normalize it so we could properly analyze it. Well, I am still impressed with most of the folks at UCSF.

    PE, sometimes i wonder, are you the alter ego of Vivus' Wesley Day (VP Clinical Development).
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    I noted your errors Jay above. Please learn to count days before you attack people. My words speak for themselves. You J, seem to speak for everyone else. I am impressed.

    I plotted a trajectory and noted it exits and wonder why people act as if it does not exist. Simple as that. Stop trying to look for malice and lies or some may think it reflects your character.
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    Jay, I was impressed when you predicted Arena's extinction on two data points. We are dead meat. So why are you back? If you here to impress us with your ability to read minds and find intentions on two data points in order to call me a malicious liar in a few extra words, I am more impressed than I was at your ability to count days.

    When I wrote about how I expected 30k scripts in the first month and stated I thought it was a reasonable expectation on multiple times, most people would assume I meant what I said, or at least nod a bit. But not you! You saw through it all. However, you missed this statement:
    " Similarly, if you think sales rep education of doctors is most important, you can believe growth will continue at 46% per week until we finish the month with about 13,000 scripts."

    It just so happens we have data for 18 days and will have 23 days tomorrow so we can estimate the scripts for 20.8 days (the average federal work month). For 18 days, I estimate we have 10,322 scripts. Using last week's rate we will have 13,096. for the first month. /snicker.

    Now we need to resolve your problem with counting workdays before you fill this page up with calculations (although I would like to see how you turned two points into predicting Belviq's failure). EVERYONE knows that Eisai began detailing doctors on Belviq on June 7 and channel checks were released on June 21 for the week ending June 14. Now I am a bit confused with what IMS told me, but I think their data is through Friday. If so, I WAS WRONG to use 5 doctor workdays for the first week since I should have used 6. Not 4 as you claim! (Count: F,M,T,W,T,F = 6) If I used six days, scripts grew the 2nd week by 119% and not 83% as I stated.

    You allege I am a malicious calculating liar, so why did I miss a wonderful opportunity to give good honest data to support my lies when it was right before my eyes and cost me time and effort to get? (this should be a good one)

    Since you erred on the number of days in the week, I merely glanced and ignored the rest of your comment since it is moot and is a waste of my time.

    Should we do what you do and try to use ESP to peer into your mind determine your intent on writing about Belviq, reading articles on it, and slandering those who write about it when you supposedly are neither long or short Arena and wrote its obituary? Why did you choose to post your comment at this point and not the bottom where most people do? Are you related to Vivus' Wesley Day (VP Clinical Development)?
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Arena's Belviq Prescription Sales Growth Continue At 54% Per Week? [View article]
    I had completed the article and minutes before submitting it, I wanted to see the potential result of the growth rate if extrapolated for a year. After all, that is what bears do with two data points when predicting Arena's demise. The difference is I explain it and account for sampling error.

    I was dumbstruck by the figure. I felt it epitomized how insane the sell off and current price is. Who would sell a stock with double-digit growth? Who would sell if that growth were on a weekly basis? That figure is why no sane person who knew the real facts would sell. Will it get to $1B? Who knows? It is too early to tell. But we have a fact - the stock is on that trajectory. Thus, who would be insane enough to sell such a stock? I can only think of a potential suitor, a competitor, or a short seller who was mislead and confused. In all cases, they must combine sales with FUD.

    Come back and ask me the sales question in six weeks. If Belviq is still on that trajectory, I may say Belviq will sell at least $750M

    I did not predict $1B in sales; I merely showed the current trajectory. But based on the figures, the potential demand, the positive side effects, harmful antidiabetic drugs, sales of Bel+pehn or Bel+met, I think anything is possible on the upside. I am sticking with my conservative $250M or so estimate since I cannot see how that will be missed.

    I am not criticizing Eisai re ads. I can see how it is most cost effective to delay the ads. However, bears have convinced themselves and others that ads are not necessary because everyone has heard of Belviq and do not want it. Of course, even if they were correct, the public mostly heard about the pre-FDA average weight loss and nothing about responders and the other positive side effects. To beat the bears, you must act like one and have a mantra of your own to counter their claims of 3-5% weight loss. Otherwise, you will lose the war to educate the public.

    I do not believe in boycotting an exchange of ideas, it sounds too much like e-book burning to me. Spencer is being logical by following guidance from Eisai and modeling that. It is a good conservative estimate since it would not be in Eisai's interest to miss its target and it should know the market better than any analyst does and it certainly has a plan to maximize profit. Sadly, even the market is not listening to them because if they were, Arena's shares would not have dropped. Eisai even warned us it would be a slow rollout. When it was slow, investors scattered like ants before the short sellers.
    Jul 18, 2013. 04:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment