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  • Elan Is In Play [View article]
    Management and the BOD decide which bids are acceptable - shareholders only get to vote on the final bid that receives Management's blessing. But in any case, our projections of a final takeout price are in agreement.
    Jun 17, 2013. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elan Is In Play [View article]
    You give ELN management too much credit.

    The "sales process" with unsolicited bids from unnamed third parties appears more to be a sham than anything else. If ELN management were serious about a sales process, they would have either made Royalty Pharma a counter-offer, or started a formal sales process much sooner. Instead they tried to hastily put together not 1 but 4 poison pill deals to fend off a takeover.

    If BIIB wanted to acquire ELN they would have done so in the first place rather than acquiring rights to Tysabri and paying ELN a royalty. The fact that the original deal was a royalty transaction indicates that they wanted the compound and not the talent or the foothold in Europe. The tax losses are interesting, but takeovers usually are not driven by tax considerations.

    This "formal sales process" will either end up with RP buying ELN for $13.50 - $14 plus CVRs or with no sale at all as ELN management claims that no bids were acceptable, preserving their jobs and tanking the stock price back to the $10 - $11 range.

    Disclosure: no position in ELN
    Jun 15, 2013. 07:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Is A Straightforward Opportunity: Trial Results At DDW Back Plecanatide [View article]
    Shane, SGYP's Type C meeting w/. FDA is in June. This is a potential near-term catalyst. If FDA accepts the completes phIIb/III trial as on e of the registration trials - the burn and the time to NDA filing in CIC would be decreased potentially leading to an uptick.
    May 22, 2013. 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The sell-off in shares of Durect (DRRX) has accelerated meaningfully as the stock is now down 37% premarket after Pfizer's Remoxy comments. Reminder: DRRX is entitled to royalties of between 6% and 11.5% of potential Remoxy net sales which some analysts have said could ultimately hit $1B if the drug reaches market. The impact for DRRX, which only had $53.1M in total revenue in 2012, really cannot be overstated. See SA contributor PropThink's recent analysis for more. (Also: PTIE crashes on PFE comments) [View news story]
    $DRRX has Posidur under NDA review as well - $PTIE is worse off than $DRRX due to this news
    May 10, 2013. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals - A Derivative Trade On Ziopharm's Upcoming Data [View article]
    jury's still out on the logic - the trade worked just fine. In Biotech trading you can be wrong about the science and still make money on the trade and vice versa
    Mar 27, 2013. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Oncology May Win The Battle But Will They Win The War? [View article]
    While we're all waiting for the results - head on over to Red Acre Investments and cast your vote on which way you think the data will go: http://bit.ly/14k2VHo
    Mar 25, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals - A Derivative Trade On Ziopharm's Upcoming Data [View article]
    While we're all waiting for the results - head on over to Red Acre Investments and cast your vote on which way you think the data will go: http://bit.ly/14k2VHo
    Mar 25, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals - A Derivative Trade On Ziopharm's Upcoming Data [View article]
    Bio, I appreciate your skepticism both here and on Robert Schwartz' article in the comments. ;-)
    Mar 22, 2013. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals - A Derivative Trade On Ziopharm's Upcoming Data [View article]
    It's not a long term hold recommendation - it's a recommendation about next week's data - what does the baseline Pt data have to do w/. that.

    Yes you're technically correct - TH-302 is a pro-drug of Br-IPM which is structurally similar to Pali.
    Mar 22, 2013. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Oncology May Win The Battle But Will They Win The War? [View article]
    The trial was randomized wasn't it? I would find it wierd if the investigators got to choose which arm the pts went on. Your skepticism is well warranted, but I think an obvious trial design flaw like this would have been pointed out by now no?
    Mar 21, 2013. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Oncology May Win The Battle But Will They Win The War? [View article]
    PFS was measured by blinded independent radiologic readers. How do the investigators induce a physiologic tumor response?
    Mar 21, 2013. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Oncology May Win The Battle But Will They Win The War? [View article]
    The placebo effect has not been shown to make a difference in tumor response in oncology trials. Although secondary/subjective measures such as pain etc. are susceptible to the placebo effect, objective tumor response is very rarely correlated to knowing which arm of an oncology trial one is on. http://bit.ly/ZbyH1o
    Mar 19, 2013. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Oncology May Win The Battle But Will They Win The War? [View article]
    Though the phase 2 PICASSO study was open label - the radiologic readers who determined PFS were blinded. Only the investigators and patients knew which drug arm they were on.

    If the readers were not blinded - nobody would be placing faith in the 3 month PFS benefit from the phase 2 study.
    Mar 19, 2013. 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    The AD-RTs-IL-12 + PALI trial is NOT a surprise. This was expected - but the exact timing of the start was unknown and most thought it would be in Q2 after the top-line results came out.
    Mar 15, 2013. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    correct regarding IFOS. Whether or not PALI+DOX is more toxic than DOX alone is yet to be seen. It's ZIOP's CEO stating the points above - make of them what you will.
    Mar 14, 2013. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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