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  • Don't Let This Biotech Dig Its Talons Into Your Portfolio [View article]
    TLON acquired for $11.3 million - effectively 6 cents per share + contingent value rights. Holder of the common lost big time on this "takeunder". after liquidation preference, the CVR is about 0.3 cents per share
    Jul 17, 2013. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Management Moves Signal Desperation [View article]
    to get our free newsletter sign up at: http://bit.ly/10SbDco
    Jul 16, 2013. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Management Moves Signal Desperation [View article]
    The upside call to $17.10 is based on the chart & likely trading momentum.

    While your scenario is quite possible as well, there should be at least a brief move beyond $15 if FMC wins a majority of a board and thus can ensure a change in leadership.
    Jul 15, 2013. 05:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Management Moves Signal Desperation [View article]
    That's an alternate view.

    When companies transition from development stage to commercial stage, a change in leadership is often the right move. Just because someone "built the company from the ground up" does not mean they are properly qualified to run the show when needs change.

    Remember, FMC has been long VVUS since 2008. They haven't just come to the party recently to try to take over. (Though FMC was not the largest shareholder until this year).

    Activist shareholders generally tend to unlock underlying value by leading the charge for change. If VVUS management really had your interests first, they should have extended the olive branch months ago when FMC first expressed its concerns.

    Our analysis is not mean-spirited, but rather it is meant to lay out events as we see them.

    In any event, best of luck with your investments.
    Jul 15, 2013. 04:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Management Moves Signal Desperation [View article]
    The fact that OREX landed a partner for Contrave suggests that a partnership for Qsymia *could* be reached (in theory anyway). It is interesting that both ARNA and OREX reached deals with Japan-based pharma companies.

    Clearly a more qualified CEO re-initiates somewhat of a "honeymoon period" for the stock where investors may give the company a few months extra to work things out.

    Ultimately, the script numbers and cash burn will determine value regardless of who is in charge.
    Jul 15, 2013. 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Management Moves Signal Desperation [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words!
    Jul 15, 2013. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Management Moves Signal Desperation [View article]
    Which way do you think the proxy vote will go? Take our poll: http://bit.ly/14k2VHo
    Jul 15, 2013. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Vs. First Manhattan And QVT Financial [View article]
    Lol that's an exerpt from a VVUS press release. What else do you expect them to say?

    Spencer - the rising stock price is likely a sign that investors think FMC will win.

    Present management has already been in place so their winning the proxy fight would maintain status quo and thus stock price should remain the same.

    disclosure: no position
    Jul 11, 2013. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elan Is In Play [View article]
    Management and the BOD decide which bids are acceptable - shareholders only get to vote on the final bid that receives Management's blessing. But in any case, our projections of a final takeout price are in agreement.
    Jun 17, 2013. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elan Is In Play [View article]
    You give ELN management too much credit.

    The "sales process" with unsolicited bids from unnamed third parties appears more to be a sham than anything else. If ELN management were serious about a sales process, they would have either made Royalty Pharma a counter-offer, or started a formal sales process much sooner. Instead they tried to hastily put together not 1 but 4 poison pill deals to fend off a takeover.

    If BIIB wanted to acquire ELN they would have done so in the first place rather than acquiring rights to Tysabri and paying ELN a royalty. The fact that the original deal was a royalty transaction indicates that they wanted the compound and not the talent or the foothold in Europe. The tax losses are interesting, but takeovers usually are not driven by tax considerations.

    This "formal sales process" will either end up with RP buying ELN for $13.50 - $14 plus CVRs or with no sale at all as ELN management claims that no bids were acceptable, preserving their jobs and tanking the stock price back to the $10 - $11 range.

    Disclosure: no position in ELN
    Jun 15, 2013. 07:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Is A Straightforward Opportunity: Trial Results At DDW Back Plecanatide [View article]
    Shane, SGYP's Type C meeting w/. FDA is in June. This is a potential near-term catalyst. If FDA accepts the completes phIIb/III trial as on e of the registration trials - the burn and the time to NDA filing in CIC would be decreased potentially leading to an uptick.
    May 22, 2013. 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The sell-off in shares of Durect (DRRX) has accelerated meaningfully as the stock is now down 37% premarket after Pfizer's Remoxy comments. Reminder: DRRX is entitled to royalties of between 6% and 11.5% of potential Remoxy net sales which some analysts have said could ultimately hit $1B if the drug reaches market. The impact for DRRX, which only had $53.1M in total revenue in 2012, really cannot be overstated. See SA contributor PropThink's recent analysis for more. (Also: PTIE crashes on PFE comments) [View news story]
    $DRRX has Posidur under NDA review as well - $PTIE is worse off than $DRRX due to this news
    May 10, 2013. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals - A Derivative Trade On Ziopharm's Upcoming Data [View article]
    jury's still out on the logic - the trade worked just fine. In Biotech trading you can be wrong about the science and still make money on the trade and vice versa
    Mar 27, 2013. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Oncology May Win The Battle But Will They Win The War? [View article]
    While we're all waiting for the results - head on over to Red Acre Investments and cast your vote on which way you think the data will go: http://bit.ly/14k2VHo
    Mar 25, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals - A Derivative Trade On Ziopharm's Upcoming Data [View article]
    While we're all waiting for the results - head on over to Red Acre Investments and cast your vote on which way you think the data will go: http://bit.ly/14k2VHo
    Mar 25, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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