Seeking Alpha

Redrut's  Instablog

Redrut
Send Message
I am a hedge fund analyst who has also worked on the sell side and within a derivatives house. I enjoy looking into the finer details of companies and put a little less weight on technicals. ...and no, the picture isn't me but a notable politician, and yes Mr. Samaras has been replaced! I am... More
My blog:
1 Percent Blog
View Redrut's Instablogs on:
  • RedRut Performance 3

    Hello all. My writing has been scant this past few weeks, purely because work has taken over the entirety of my time and I'm simply not covering stocks that the US have any interest in. This may all change soon as I am looking into Fish farmer Norwegian Harvest( [[MHG]]), no view as of yet!

    My stock ideas have mainly been on the back of significant newself, but these opportunities have had such a skewed risk/reward that I was comfotable issuing these recommendations without the need for additional analysis. Of course if I was a longer term holder, I would always (and highly recommend) long winded work and analysis, but these trades were simply trades.

    Anyways

    1) Blackberry [[BBRY]]. As oer my last article I stated that on November 5th, I gave a HOLD recommendation, on December 23rd, I issued a BUY recommendation at roughly $7.10. The stock performed well initially and I held the position until March 10th were I advised selling. Making 41% in such a short space of time has to be taken when it occurs. Although I do think Chen has definitely put Blackberry on the right track, you must maintain that the road is uncertain even for the management team. When you invest you are looking for a story where the ordds are stacked in your favour. No one can assess outcome to 100% and those who constantly suggest that BBRY is a 100% cert for recovery are clearly deluded. Chen himself has stated profitability appears most likely in 2016 and trust me, the market will give you another opportunity to get into BBRY after kitchen sinking has been completed.

    Followed my adivce? You made 41%. Interesingly, the stock is down 8% from when I closed the position.

    2) Pandora (OTCPK:PNDZF). Yes the jewellery company, not the cruddy radio station. The stock wobbled during the Thai protests as their production is located here. Despite the protests going on far afield of the factory and the factory itself reporting 100% operations every day. Take a step back and look at the business. 6.5% cash flow yield, EV/EBITDA of 10.6x (cheapp for the luxury sector) and plenty of further profitability from Asia and online sales (not too mention the end of the share overhang).

    Followed my adivce? You made 14%

    3) Herbalife (HLF) A complete no brainer. The big short catalyst everyone was worried about appeared. A FTC investigation thought to take more than a year. Uncertainty = risk = higher required return on capital = lower share price. Longs were afraid of this for years and said it wouldn't happen. When it did happen longs said they knew it was going to happen and it would absolve the company. A year is a long time and shorting this sucker was simple and straightforward. I suggested a short on March the 12th and closed it on the 21st

    Followed my adivce? You made 15% (in one week)

    Even though I didn't publically give these trades out, I did recommend them to a reader and to be frank, they haven't been the best trades. In the interests of transparency, I list them here

    4) RM2 Pallets (RM2 LN) An innovative pallet solution backed by the golden man of retail Rose and the Ex Diageo man MR. Walsh. To top it off, insiders have been size buyers even during share price weakness. I recommened to enter this stock at 84p (the IPO was 88p) and the stock now languished at 73.20. The lessons I learnt here was that 400m GBP is too much to pay for a company with no order book and if the company has financed itself by selling shares privately to small holders, stay well away (they are the first to sell and have already made 5x their money)

    Followed my adivce? You lost 14%

    5) Heidelberg Drucksmachinen (HDD GY) I still stand behind this trade and see upside all the way to EUR3.10 (currently 2.26). The company is the leading manufacturer of commercial printing equipment and the new management has done wonders to steady this loss-making behemoth. Paradigm shifts push against the company as less printers are required in a world with the medium of internet but packaging will never die. The company has nearly 50% installed base worldwide and is soon (IMHO) to announce a landmark deal divesting their loss-making business to a Chinese company and perhaps allowing this Chinese company to use their sales network and brand. In essence, this is very similar to the Blackberry/Foxconn tie up. We make your lossmaking machine profitable and you sell them for us.

    To be clear, the company are public that they are in talks with an Asian buyer for some post press (cutting, folding, stitching) equipment but the rest is speculation on my part.

    Followed my adivce? A mixed bag, I was a buyer when it was 2.20. The stock rallied to 3.10 before coming back down to earth. Happy holder, this is a great story

    So that's the story so far, and here are my previous recommendations...

    Followed me on...

    ...Potash corp, you made 16.2% (YES!)

    ...Nokia, you made 37% (YES!!!)

    ...K+S you made 23% (YES!!!)

    ...Dialog you made 30.5% (YES!!!)

    ...Infineon, you made 17% (YES!!!)

    ...Tesla, you made 3.5% (NO!!!)

    ...Potash Corp, you lost 0.5% (HELD ANYWAY)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I am long Heidelberg Druck

    Mar 24 10:21 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • RedRut Performance: 2

    First thanks to all who read my bits and pieces over the past months. I always enjoy a good debate even when I'm proved wrong.

    At the bottom you will find a recap of my previous picks and if you want the relevant evidence, there are links on my previous write up

    1) POTUS, on August 8th, I advised going long POT @ $30.10, despite having to wait nearly half a year, Uralkali's tentative cartel reformaiton and supply tightness has helped the potash market and allowed POT to recover, earning you 16.2%

    2) Blackberry BBRY, I have been a vocal hater of Blackberry for a while and I guess you could count my hatred and lose advice to short as profit but I never explicitly said it so I won't count that. On November 5th, I gave a HOLD recommendation, on December 23rd, I issued a BUY recommendation at thr $7.10 mark, following this advice you made 21%

    3) Pandora (A/S). I have been a long term holder but never put detailed research on SA as it isn't worth my time considering lack of readership. I have it on SCRIBD and if anyone wants the link on why there is another 30-50% here, let me know. Anyway, I advised that the sell off (due to Bangkok violence) was ill-informed and added to my position about 300DKK. The stock has since pre-released and upgraded earning you 6.6%

    4) Best Buy (BBY)...This is annoying, I tried to tell people to buy on the open on the profit warning. My message never got through for some reason. I won't chalk it up to anything but clearly it would have been a winner.

    Sorry I haven't been more active, I am concentrating on more mid cap Europe and I felt that this research would have been of limited use to you all. If you want to ask for my picks, let me know!

    Last review (Should I have held in brackets)

    Followed me on...

    ...Nokia, you made 37% (YES!!!)

    ...K+S you made 23% (YES!!!)

    ...Dialog you made 30.5% (YES!!!)

    ...Infineon, you made 17% (YES!!!)

    ...Tesla, you made 3.5% (NO!!!)

    ...Potash Corp, you lost 0.5% (HELD ANYWAY)

    Tags: Performance
    Jan 17 3:42 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • RedRut Performance

    Since I have built up a decent following, I thought it would be a useful exercise to quickly sum up, what I have written and how the investment has fared! If you look at my actually blog 1percentblog.com I state a few additional names that are European and not State-Side

    Nokia, Write up here

    Recommended buying @ EUR 3 (July 3rd). Have begun closing the D&S thesis @ 4.20 giving a 37% return in only two months. Huzzah (Paid 3% for protective puts)

    Potash players. Potash cartel shatters profitability

    Recommended shorting K+S at EUR 22 and POTash Corp at $30 on July the 30th.

    Closed both trades out and went long K+S on August 8th at a price of EUR17.40 and POTash at $30.10, making 18% in K+S and a small loss in Potash. I closed out my long K+S a few days later at EUR18.30 making an additional 5% in a few days.

    I recommended buying Dialog Semiconductor on June 18th at a price of EUR11.50. The stock dropped all the way down to EUR9 before rebounding to the current price of EUR15 where I intend to hold until the end of this week giving a 30.5% return thus far.

    I recommended Infineon on June 5th at $8.50 and the stock now trades at $9.50 where I would advise closing it on concerns that the new fab ramp up may eat into EBIT near term. Total return 17%.

    In May I wrote that Tesla investors should sell at $110 in order to get back in at lower levels ($75-$80) as the short squeeze wore off. The stock dipped as low as $85 after my call before continuing it's relentless drive onwards. The stock traded for a while as high as $106 and so i will limit this position to a small profit despite potential for a larger one if you were more trigger happy!

    So a recap

    Followed me on...

    ...Nokia, you made 37%

    ...K+S you made 23%

    ...Dialog you made 30.5%

    ...Infineon, you made 17%

    ...Tesla, you made 3.5%

    ...Potash Corp, you lost 0.5%

    Hope you all find this useful!

    Sep 09 10:44 AM | Link | 6 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $HLF Followed my advice, you would have made 15% http://bit.ly/18PnOrF
    Mar 26, 2014
  • Testing Twitter
    Mar 26, 2014
  • $BBRY Id still recommend protecting your downside over results - good luck to the iron dukes here
    Mar 25, 2014
More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
  1. RedRut Performance (6 Comments)
  2. RedRut Performance: 2 (2 Comments)
  3. RedRut Performance 3 (2 Comments)
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.