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  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Enersavr,

    There's a big difference between looking for relevant information and trying to influence the information. Your posts clearly indicate a strong desire to try to change the focus from the relevant issue. You attempt to discredit and even quash opposing viewpoints.

    This is an investing site and the relevant issue regarding LL's stock is whether or not there was deliberate mislabeling and whether or not LL was complicit in it. You have not, yet, submitted one single post dealing with this issue.

    All the rest is just theatre.

    If I ever find a copy of "Flooring Quarterly" in my doctors waiting room, I'll be sure to look for articles by you.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Enersavr,

    You're barking up the wrong tree. You expect SA, an investing forum, to check out chemical engineering before publishing an article. Hogwash !!!!

    What next, blow up 60 minutes studio and burn the newspapers.

    Get real, the LL drama is far from being resolved, one way or the other.

    Should I ask SA to eliminate discussions about formaldehyde levels and restrict the discussion to mislabeling?

    As I said, let everyone make their points ... you and Tilson have made them ... and let the readers decide.

    I have read all the comments, have no skin in the game, will have no skin in the game and am not convinced by EITHER side that the true and complete facts are yet at our disposal.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Enersavr,

    Your comment was definitely anecdotal when you say "....More of disgust of many contributor's on what he publishes......"

    You want to list the MANY CONTRIBUTORS that have shown DISGUST and I'll withdraw my observation.

    As far as likes go ... on a biased topic like LL they mean nothing. I could get tons of likes by just saying I hate LL and just as many by saying I love LL. These posts primarily speak to the choir on the left side or the right side. When you get likes from the center, then that means something. Unfortunately, there's no way to know that, except anecdotally, if you get only a few likes.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USO: A "Double Play" On Oil [View instapost]
    HI User,

    Look at it this way .. I am long one "leg" -- the far dated, and am short two "legs" --- the $27 leg and the weekly.

    The $27 leg is a "contingent short". That is, it doesn't really become short until USO hits $27. So, let's say USO hits $27, if I continue to sell the weekly, I'm "double short". IF USO drops or stays flat ... fine, but if USO goes up, I lose.

    So, now I'm put in a tough position. Do I stop selling weeklies and risk a drop, or do I still sell weeklies and risk a rise?

    Now, if I was an "oil analyst" I'd probably have better than even chance of getting it right. But I'm not. So, the only step is to close everything out and move to something else.

    Now, overall, I may be ahead or behind ... depends on how volatile USO was. What I really lose ... is the PROGRAM. It can't go on and I have to accept whatever the up-to-date result ... good or bad. So, I never really get a chance to earn all the extrinsic I planned on.

    Now, since $27 represents something near $90 PBB, I'm comfortable ...but mindful. I also take some comfort that the "mechanics" of USO as an ETF, are inefficient and over the long term, will under-represent the true price of oil.

    But, a quick run up, doesn't give me the ability to continue to capture the long term advantages.
    Apr 27, 2015. 06:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bear Case From A Bull [View article]
    The threats to AAPL could be said about any company.

    Every company has limits on its growth rate and every company has competition and every company must be successful in their innovation.

    Therefore, it boils down to Apple's ability to handle these threats more/less than every other company. If management can do better than others AAPL will continue to be a stock to own. If not, then its time to go home.
    Apr 25, 2015. 04:57 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USO Calendar Spreads ... An Update [View instapost]
    Hi YCL,

    If I was starting today I'd probably go with 19/28 -- just on the basis that upside is probably no more than 50%. That should debit somewhere around $2.60-2.80. With 91 weeks till expiry, you need 3cents weekly extrinsic.

    Second, since the thesis is a drop, short term, before a rise, I'd go ITM as deep as possible, to earn at least 3cents extrinsic. That means $18.50, possibly $19.

    There will be more extrinsic available when, and if, USO drops. If it never drops, then you'll break even in January 2017, as long as you earn 3cents/week.

    The important thing to remember in this strategy is that you always roll the weekly at the initial strike. Until such time as you can't get enough extrinsic, and then you lift it up, just enough to get the needed extrinsic.

    Now, if you think the bottom is in, then weekly at $20 works.

    The problem with $20, is that if USO drops to, say, just $19, you have to keep selling at $20, and the further/longer USO stays at or below $19, the less and less extrinsic you get. Instead, if the strikes were at $19, the more and more you get.

    So, to copy a famous line "You get extrinsic now or you get it later".

    I'm thinking $18-$19 is the more frequent trading range and $19.67 is a temporary high.

    That doesn't mean I'm right, $19.50-$20 could be the new trading range. Or, maybe something else. It's too volatile to know.

    So, it's just a matter of how you see things developing. If you're wrong, and you get 3cents/week ... worst case is you break even two years down the line.

    But, and I can't stress this enough, you need to hold the initial strike to avoid the see-saw. As long as you get extrinsic, you're o.k.
    Apr 25, 2015. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uncertainty Over Rate Rises In The United States Could Be Detrimental [View article]
    You suggest that if the Fed came out and said "absolutely, positively we will xyz..." things will go smoothly.

    Well, if the Fed came out, say tomorrow, with a such a statement it would cause turmoil as everyone scampers to adjust. No one is just going to orderly change their positions slowly over the ensuing months.

    Whatever will happen will happen ... and it will happen as soon as the Fed makes a statement either that they ARE NOW or WILL ON SUCH-N-SUCH DATE raise rates.

    Lastly, everyone wants direction in an uncertain world. They look to capitalize by receiving this information. This is hogwash! Everyone will have the same information. The real profits go to those that are able to see into the future and prepare beforehand. Everyone else just picks up the scraps.

    It's the same way with stocks ... those that wait till an earnings release never make anywhere near the money as those willing to anticipate the result and act beforehand.
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Enersavr,

    First, I think it's improper for you to anecdotally speak for "many contributor's".

    Second, obviously SA disagrees with your opinion.

    Maybe you should just step back and let someone that has a strong opinion, opposite yours, the privilege of expressing it.

    After all, fools that express opinions just betray themselves.
    Apr 24, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USO Calendar Spreads ... An Update [View instapost]
    Hi YCL,

    The higher the vol, the more extrinsic premium ... so that is a good thing.

    However, the higher the vol, the more likely the see-saw. This is bad, unless you manage it.

    To mange a see-saw, you need to set the initial short option at a particular strike and just keep it there every time you roll. If the stock over-runs, sacrifice extrinsic expecting a drop. If the stock goes down, sacrifice extrinsic expecting a bounce.

    This means you have to just accept whatever comes from it. For instance USO is near 20 now. The extrinsic on setting an 18 strike is very small. The temptation is to go to, say 19 strike, but I still hold at 18. Though I did go out a few weeks to earn more.

    I'll hold at 18 until such time as I think things have settled down and a clear bottom is in. Then I'll move the strike. Since my far-dated is January 2017, I have plenty of time to earn extrinsic, so there's no rush to judgment.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Sinners,

    100% agree.
    Apr 24, 2015. 06:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Sinner,

    Thank you.

    The best lesson that one can get from this site is that there are two sides to every story. The challenge is determining which is more likely.
    Apr 24, 2015. 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Sinners,

    Well, since you are self admitted new and novice stock investor, you'll learn, in due course, not to believe any of the stories anyone tells you.

    Instead, do research. Look at income statements and balance sheets, etc.. It's called due diligence.

    If you don't know how, buy a mutual fund or go to a professional money manager.

    If you're not willing to do that, you'll eventually attract a huckster with get rich stories to sell you. If you're lucky, you won't lose everything.
    Apr 23, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Clayton,

    I agree.

    Welcome to the world of "money-for-clicks".
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantor Fitzgerald buys into Lumber Liquidators value proposition [View news story]
    Hi Clayton,

    I don't trust anyone's survey unless I know the individual. These threads are filled with "spinsters".

    For instance ... I'd trust your "survey" because you are clearly NOT an LL or Tilson troll. Your profile says it all. You would have no need or motivation to make it up ... but a troll or Tilson, well, I agree, that's another story.

    Frankly, I question why anyone would even bother to engage in the alleged poll, one week before earnings release. It seems like worthless effort unless one is trying to get a jump on the market ... and if that's the case ... the last thing they would do is publish it.

    Or, is it part of a pump-n-dump? That would be more consistent.

    I'm just trying to help people understand the reality of this site.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Puts And Calls: Dessert And Coffee [View article]
    Hi BrutalHonesty,

    Sure.

    Options on SPY and any other stock are taxed as ordinary income .., except for a long leap option held over a year, in which case it is long term cap gains/loss. Short options are always ordinary income.

    SPX is an index, not a stock. It is Sec 1256 for tax purposes. That means that options on SPX are taxed 60% Long Term Cap Gains and 40% short term (ordinary income). This holds true even on short-sided options.

    Since the majority of gains will come from selling weekly options, SPY, and other stocks, are 100% ordinary income, whereas SPX is 60% LTCG and 40% STCG. This means lower taxes.

    The 1256 also applies to RUT, not IWM and IDX not QQQQ and futures.
    Here's one of many links that explain it (http://bit.ly/1yVVY0q)
    Apr 23, 2015. 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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