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Reel Ken

 
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  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    Hi Joseph Stuber,

    I'm glad to see that you said what was needed to be said.

    I don't think disaster is lurking any time soon, that is before year end, but the Emperor Has No Clothes. It isn't far off.
    Jul 24 03:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    Hi Willy,

    Somehow, when I posted the formula, NYSE was inserted. Don't ask me why. Just strange.

    Formula line should be...A=(R(NYSE:F)xV + R(NYSE:G)xV + R(NYSE:H)xV + R(J)xV) / ((V9F)+V(G)+V(H)+V(J))
    Jul 24 02:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    Hi Willy,

    Solution follows...wrong again.

    ..."........Assertion: It is impossible for Reel Ken to provide the math showing what is required for an HLF distributor to make $16,000/yr in gross margins only retailing HLF products (Note: This assumes no down-line and no enrollee income after 12 months) based on the actual average selling price of HLF products, which is a combination of product sold at 0% discount, product sold at 15% discount through an HLF distributor on their website, product sold at 35% discount in places like eBay and Amazon, product sold at 100% discount when given away as samples, and so forth.

    Math provided as follows .......

    S=SRP
    R= Actual retail selling price
    V=Inventory Available
    F= zero discount G=15% discount H=35% discount J= given away
    A=(R(NYSE:F)xV + R(NYSE:G)xV + R(NYSE:H)xV + R(J)xV) / ((V9F)+V(G)+V(H)+V(J))
    B=Log(e)(7.5)x(A – S/2)

    Solution= 4401/B .... rounded to nearest integer.


    Q.E.D.
    Jul 24 02:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    Hi Willy,

    You say...

    .....".....What are you suggesting, that ........"

    How many times does it take, I'm not suggesting anything I am STATING A FACT.... your question ......

    ......"......what is the "commission" for a transaction occurring at 70% SRP with the distributor able to purchase product at a 42% discount to SRP?..."

    Is an invalid question and no math solution exists.

    Now, we're getting closer .......

    ......"...........Please explain why it is invalid and there is no math solution possible........."

    I'll be most happy to, once you acknowledge my conditions of explanation .... I'll repeat........

    "So I give you the same choice....

    Do you want to admit defeat and have me to show you why your question is invalid and no math solution is possible? or ...

    Do you want to figure it out yourself?

    Your choice. "

    Just admit defeat and the inability to figure out why your question is invalid and we can move on to other subjects. Of course, as I stated, once you admit defeat, then it ends any further discussion along these lines and you need to come up with a different thesis.
    Jul 24 02:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    Hi WillyTSA,

    You say...

    ......"..........suggest that the math for an average selling price of anything other than 100% SRP is not possible when you said "Your question is invalid and no math solution is possible"..........."

    This is not what I said or suggested ... however.....

    This new "question" is totally different than your original question .....

    ...........".........what is the "commission" for a transaction occurring at 70% SRP with the distributor able to purchase product at a 42% discount to SRP?........"

    That is the question that I said is invalid and you seem to be moving away from it.

    Is this "re-write" of yours an admission that the original "question" was invalid?

    So, why don't we just stick to the original question, as you initially posed it. Are you in need of an explanation why it is invalid, or have you figured it out yourself?

    I'll take any attempt to alter the question as an admission that it was invalid and not possible to offer a math solution.


    Jul 24 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    Hi WillyTSA,

    I remember a Professor I had when I was working on my masters thesis in Applied Math.

    Whenever a submission was made for review, he would just say whether I was on the right track or not. If I was not on the right track, I had to go back, find my error and re-submit.

    The prof had a "rule". If I hit a complete "dead end" ... couldn't figure out where I went wrong.... I could ask him to explain. However, I would be admitting defeat ... admitting I didn't have the requisite ability and that my entire thesis was mute. I would have to start over with a new thesis from ground zero.

    So it came down to two choices...

    1) Do I think I'm capable of figuring out where I went wrong, or....

    2) Do I want to admit defeat, admit that I couldn't see what he saw, and throw away my thesis and start a completely new one from scratch.

    So I give you the same choice....

    Do you want to admit defeat and have me to show you why your question is invalid and no math solution is possible? or ...

    Do you want to figure it out yourself?

    Your choice.
    Jul 24 09:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    HI WillyTSA,

    You continue to make mistakes.

    In the 70% at Full SRP and 30% at zero, I was illustrating that NO Profit was false on an aggregate basis. I lowered the SRP to a level that met that criteria. I never suggested it sold at that level, just that's the level to assert the premise.

    I gave you the numbers at 90%-95% SRP. If you're too lazy to do the math, I can't help you. You had no trouble when you wanted to assert 70%.

    ...."......am seeking for you to "give information" in the form of presenting your revised math at a discount to SRP you believe reflects HLF's actual gross margins......."

    I know what you're asking. I gave you numbers at 90%-95%, which is the number you supplied. It was your query, your facts.

    Notwithstanding, I've said, over and over, the illustration was for a generic MLM as per Kristina's request. You keep trying to move the goal-posts. I'm tired of it.

    Here's what I suggest ... why don't you make an assertion .. like the one Kristina made ... just say what you want and I'll decide if I think the assertion worthy of my effort.

    Maybe one that says something like this ... " It's impossible for anyone to make $16000 selling HLF products" .. or whatever else you think you want.
    Jul 24 09:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deep Blood Kettle', Ockham's Razor, Faith And Reason [View article]
    Hi Dave,

    I agree that cold calling is not a very effective method. Practically every marketing method in todays society, discourages it. It has been supplanted with other more sophisticated methods such as referrals and seminar selling.

    HLF also stresses referral and seminar selling.

    However, the difficulty in any outside sales, is not the inadequacy of 10-3-1. It is the difficulty in ability to implement. It has nothing to do with "territory" or anything even close to that.

    There are plenty of hugely successful sales people that have much greater limitations than that. You conclude that success or failure has to do with some factor external to the sales person, themselves. Just not so.

    Even 10-3-1 ... means a sales person must approach 10 people and accept 9 "rejections" for one sale. It requires the ability to overcome "fear of rejection". Most people are not "wired" for this. Most people also have "approach anxiety". That's why, after picking the low-hanging fruit .. friends and family ... sales sputters.

    Most people completely shy away from sales jobs because of these two fears. It is not that 10-3-1 doesn't work. There is significant proof in many fields, that it does work. No one doubts that a persistent sales person can succeed selling just about anything, anywhere.

    The one quality all successful sales people have in common, is that they have found ways to overcome the fear of rejection and approach anxiety. It is also true that the biggest reason for people failing in sales is their inability to overcome fear of rejection and approach anxiety.

    Just ask people if they would be interested in sales and most shudder.

    I have been personally involved in exhaustive statistical studies of outside sales in varied industries. All the studies were able to get past all the "standard excuses" ... product was no good, too much effort, too much time, too little rewards, not enough prospects, inadequate training.... etc..

    Amazingly, what we discovered, is that these factors did not influence success/failure rates. They only influenced the level of success of those that succeeded.

    Once the "excuses" ere peeled back, it always came down to fear of rejection and approach anxiety.

    I think I have a pretty good handle of what sales people go through, what makes them successful and what leads them to quit. It is this quality and this quality only ... overcoming "fear of rejection" and "approach anxiety".

    You'll get a much better handle on things by surveying successes and asking them how they made it than surveying failures and asking them why they didn't. People, in general, will gladly tell you how they succeeded, failures usually find fault outside themselves.
    Jul 24 09:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Pyramid Scheme Or Just Another MLM? [View article]
    Hi Michael,

    Interesting article,

    I think you would have been much better served using the definition that the Courts put forth rather than Wikipedia.

    They say much the same thing, but when one wants to discuss something that is a legal distinction, is Wikipedia really proper authority?
    Jul 23 09:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife rebounds after Mr. Ackman fails to deliver a knockout punch [View news story]
    Hi Hrebs,

    Fusion rebuked Ackman saying he misinterpreted VanderNat.

    Fusion the followed that with a calculation that mis-used VanderNat.

    Call it spin, or whatever you want. But the goose and the gander walked together walked into the slaughterhouse together.
    Jul 22 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Collateral Damage [View article]
    Hi Rogier,

    Yesterday and today represent nothing more than steps on a road "where it goes, nobody knows".

    It's a roller coaster ride until such time as the agencies come out with something or nothing.

    The shares are so leveraged, when it happens, hold on to your hat.
    Jul 22 09:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White Collar Crime Expert Slams Herbalife: An Exclusive Interview With Sam Antar [View article]
    Hi Rogier,

    Antar may have a better of idea of fraud than you or I, but not of the forensic accountants that convicted him. If you want to hand out credit, those are the ones that deserve it.

    You say....

    ....".......and he decided to do something useful with it......."

    It all depends upon what you consider "useful".

    If you mean parlaying his infamy into publicity stunts and money (ala Paris Hilton) then he certainly did something.

    On the other hand, if you mean making restitution to those he defrauded and really taking responsibility for his actions .. well I'm still waiting.
    Jul 22 09:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FTC Should Take A Definitive Stance On Pyramid Type Offerings Rather Than A Case-By-Case Approach [View article]
    HI Curious,

    What say you now?
    Jul 22 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The FTC Should Take A Definitive Stance On Pyramid Type Offerings Rather Than A Case-By-Case Approach [View article]
    Hi Algoe,

    Today is tomorrow. Did I miss something?
    Jul 22 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife rebounds after Mr. Ackman fails to deliver a knockout punch [View news story]
    Hi Leopardtrader,

    ...........".......Market just forgot that HLF is still under FTC investigation ......."

    I disagree. The market discounted HLF on account of this.

    What we saw yesterday and today, is the market thought Ackman had a deal-breaker. Stock down.

    Turned out he had a dud. Marker corrected and added a few points. These few points represent a discount for Ackman's loss of credibility.

    The FTC discount remains in place. Just look at a chart.
    Jul 22 09:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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