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Reggie Middleton

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  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    The trade returned 33% my friend. Sounds good to me.
    Mar 18 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dine Equity: Indigestion After High Debt Bingeing During Credit Bubble [View article]
    There is nothing "off the mark" about the analysis. You owe yourself at least a careful reading of the content that you are criticizing before you criticize it.

    From what you apparently missed: "This opinion was derived in September, BEFORE Dine Equity successfully refinanced its debt."

    Last sentence of the analysis: "The post-refinancing Dine Equity opinion is available on BoomBustBlog."
    Jan 11 06:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Spits in SEC's Face, Creates the Facebook Hedge Fund [View article]
    There are web sites that specialize in creating a market in illiquid assets such as condotels, Facebook stock, restricted stock, and auction rate securities. Facebook shares have been trading via such vehicles for some time.
    Jan 7 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Spits in SEC's Face, Creates the Facebook Hedge Fund [View article]
    Probably not, particularly without full disclosure. You know, I'm funny like that - wanting to know what it is I am buying and all.

    I also probably would not be a GS client. You could have and still can buy Facebook shares without the GS mark up simply by going to the private market places on the web.
    Jan 4 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    Unless you are subscriber, you have not read much. In addition, your assertion is way off. MSFT is one of the most profitable and diverse software companies in the world and has accomplished this with proprietary software.

    Apple's vertical stack business model simply has limitations as the industry starts to become commoditized through competition. There is no historical precedence which shows this to be a flawed argument, yet there is plenty that support the argument.
    Dec 24 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    I have over 100 pages of analysis that goes through it in detail. Much of it has been linked to through the article that you are commenting on.
    Dec 24 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    Again, you allude to the predictions of demise or success of companies. I have not predicted the demise of companies, and you insist on making this that type of argument. I also never alluded to any model fitting ALL developers, or all of anything, for that matter. It appears as if you are attempting to force this issue for the sake or argument, if so you will have to argue with someone else.

    Google has transformed many an industry through its ad model, and it looks like it may up end a couple of other industry leaders business leadership through the cloud computing model, which it is one of a very few companies that are currently equipped to do such on a large scale to the masses and the enterprise alike. I have written extensively on Google's potential in cloud computing and the offering from MSFT, AMZN and potentially Apple, etc.

    The ad model can easily and does coexist with the paid cloud model. The danger for competitors who don't have the infrastructure and mass is that the ad model can easily gut margins and make it improbable to profit in what was once a very profitable line of business.
    Dec 24 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    Each and every link is my own work, my less than polite friend. If you don't want to put the work in to digest the more in depth commentary, then don't complain that you can't find it.
    I also leave my track record open for all to see and it should speak for itself:
    Dec 23 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    There are tons of predictive analysis available in the article (much of it has already proven to be quite accurate), all you have to do is follow the links.
    Dec 23 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    I doubt very seriously if Steve Jobs is the one man responsible for Apple's success. If he was, then he would be a sub par manager for he would have failed to groom the company in preparation for his demise. Secondly, did Apple's rise in profits increase ~340%, over the last two years, because that's roughly what the stock did?
    Dec 23 08:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    I never said iOS would fail. If you got that from my writings, then you did not read them objectively. What I did say was iOS will be overcome by Android, and every indication to date justifies that comment.
    I own and use the newest iOS products, and some of them quite extensively, as well as Androids. I know both of them intimately, as well as their strengths and weaknesses.
    Yes, both can coexist, but if Android takes the lead and succeeds in transforming the app space into an ad supported space then one cannot justify the lofty estimates that many are throwing out for Apple as if they will take over the mobile computing market.
    Dec 23 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    Has the market over the past year reflected the fundamentals and the macro outlook of the companies that traded equity in it for the past year? You cannot use stock prices in a manipulated market goosed by Fed manipulations to gauge the prospects of a company, or at least do so accurately.
    Dec 22 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Android Devices Soon Serve More Ads Than Apple's iOS? [View article]
    Android sales are doing quite well at ATT, so why would you assume that they will fall to Zero at Verizon, who puts much more marketing dollars behind Android handsets than their competitors?

    I strongly suggest you try some of the high end Android phones, you will probably be quite impressed.
    Dec 22 10:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Ultimate Threat to Apple's Margins [View article]
    Strangely enough, I posted a link to the CNBC clip and long list of very big calls that I made, and it appears that is has been edited. Let's try ti again.
    The actual CNBC
    A few historical calls to ponder. The actual links to see the original calls can be found here:

    Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record, including but not limited to, the call of….

    1. The housing market crash in September of 2007: Correction, and further thoughts on the topic and How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?
    2. Home builders falling and their grossly misleading use of off balance sheet structures to conceal excessive debt in November of 2007 (not a single sell side analyst that we know of made mention of this very material point in the industry): Lennar, Voodoo Accounting & Other Things of Mystery and Myth!
    3. The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 (2 months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear? | After the collapse, a prudent bullish call as well… Joe Lewis on the Bear Stearns buyout Monday, March 17th, 2008: “The problem with the deal is that it is too low, and too favorable for Morgan. It is literally guaranteed to drive angst from the other side. Whenever you do a deal, you always make sure the other side gets to walk away with something. If you don’t you always risk the deal falling though unnecessarily. $2 is a slap in the face to employees who have lost a life savings and have the power to block the deal. At the very least, by the building at market price and get the company for free!” | BSC calls are almost free and the JP Morgan Deal is not signed in stone Monday, March 17th, 2008 | This is going to be an exciting, and scary morning Monday, March 17th, 2008 | As I anticipated, Bear Stearns is not a done deal Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 [Bear Stearns stock goes from $1 and change to $10, front month calls literally explode from pennies to several dollars]
    4. The warning of Lehman Brothers before anyone had a clue!!! (February through May 2008): Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers Sunday, March 16th, 2008 (It would appear that Lehman’s hedges are paying off for them. The have the most CMBS and RMBS as a percent of tangible equity on the street following BSC. The question is, “Can they monetize those hedges?”. I’m curious to see how the options on Lehman will be priced tomorrow. I really don’t have enough. Goes to show you how stingy I am. I bought them before Lehman was on anybody’s radar and I was still to cheap to gorge. Now, all of the alarms have sounded and I’ll have to pay up to participate or go in short. There is too much attention focused on Lehman right now. ) | I just got this email on Lehman from my clearing desk Monday, March 17th, 2008 by Reggie Middleton | Lehman stock, rumors and anti-rumors that support the rumors Friday, March 28th, 2008 | It appears that I should have dug deeper into Lehman! May 2008
    5. The fall of commercial real estate in general (September of 2007) and the collapse of General Growth Properties [nation's 2nd largest mall owner] in particular (November 2007):’s answer to GGP’s latest press release and Another GGP update coming… (among over 700 pages of analysis, review the January 2008 archives or search for “GGP” for more research).
    6. The collapse of state and municipal finances, with California in particular (May 2008): Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis – part 2
    7. The collapse of the regional banks (32 of them, actually) in May 2008: As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo! as well as the fall of Countrywide and Washington Mutual
    8. The collapse of the monoline insurers, Ambac and MBIA in late 2007 & 2008: A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton, Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance! and Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion
    9. The overvaluation of Goldman Sachs from June 2008 to present): “Can You Believe There Are Still Analysts Arguing How Undervalued Goldman Sachs Is? Those July 150 Puts Say Otherwise, Let’s Take a Look”, “When the Patina Fades… The Rise and Fall of Goldman Sachs???“and Reggie Middleton vs Goldman Sachs, Round 2)
    10. The ENTIRE Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis (potentially soon to be the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis) starting in January of 2009 and explicit detail as of January 2010: The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
    11. Ireland austerity and the disguised sink hole of debt and non-performing assets that is the Irish banking system: I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s Better!
    12. The mobile computing paradigm shift, May 2010: More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars! »
    Oct 21 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Ultimate Threat to Apple's Margins [View article]
    You appear to be missing the point of competition and sourcing. If you and I were in competition, and you license your most important product's most critical components from me while I actively competed against said products, and resources start (as they must) get scarce, whose project do you think I will direct my best and most lucrative resources to? You, to develop a product that competes against mine? Or my own venture in order to capture a much large slice of the pie?

    What do you think makes Samsung the most money, ARM chips sold to Apple for $10 each, or Galaxy Android phones sold all over the world for $600US each? The same logic applies to LG and the "retina" display.

    Apple has itself in a production bind because it literally has to rely on its direct and most dangerous competitors for the most critical parts to its most profitable (by far) product. That is the reason why Apple has had supply sourcing issues, and this is most likely the reason why Apple is buying hardware companies to bring production in house. An expensive and risky proposition, but a necessary one as Android starts to lock up sourcing from all of the major hardware manufacturers.

    I thought I pretty much explained all of this in detail in the article, but it appears as if some have missed it.

    I had pretty much all but given up on SA, when I come here to see actual balanced conversation, and not the same old Apple rah rah, burn at the stake for disparaging Apple tirade that has been commonplace. This is a good thing.
    Oct 21 02:20 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment