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REIT Analyst

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  • REIT Analyst
    $WMC short opportunity. 2.35 div = .80 real $, plus 1.55 new stock. Think curt BV down from 11/30 to 16.25. Trades at 17.15. Do the math.
    12/20/13
    Reply (4)
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    • Humble Value Miner: $WMC short interest is 18% - and they will rush to the exit to avoid paying the 2.35 div; not so wise to short right now
      12/20/13
    • Positive Concavity: Thanks for this trade idea. Interesting to see that some prefer to pay a premium for more risk.
      12/23/13
      • REIT Analyst
        I was so short $DX, but I had not anticipated such a big drop in BV. Short MFA too.
        7/31/13
        Reply (4)
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        • JohnMartinez: So, without the mistakes, do you have a sense how much would the BV drop?
          8/1/13
        • REIT Analyst: I would have thought around -12%
          8/1/13
          • REIT Analyst
            $AGNC BV = good news for AGNC, but also for mREITs. Hedges do work when they are properly set up.
            7/29/13
            Reply (7)
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            • Not the Boss: REIT Analyst. - You sure called that one right.
              7/30/13
            • William Packer: reit, basis has been on our side most of July.. Do you have an estimate of that impact from 6/30 to 7/30? Thanks (mbs outperforming TSY )
              8/1/13
              • REIT Analyst
                $HTS down 10%, that makes sense. $AGNC down $2.5%?? Market blindness creates opportunities but it is annoying.
                7/24/13
                Reply (10)
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                • William Packer: I also still hold longer dated options.. 500 $20 December calls on MTGE @ about 50k cost average.
                  7/24/13
                • William Packer: Sold 180 puts @ 0.16 today for 21 strike weeklies. Yay for market volatility.
                  7/25/13
                  • REIT Analyst
                    Now waiting for $CMO's numbers. And $AGNC after that.
                    7/24/13
                    Reply
                      • REIT Analyst
                        $AGNC: I wish someone could explain to me factually how it is 10-yrs at 2.70 can affect an agency mREIT hedging with swaps and swaptions....
                        7/5/13
                        Reply (9)
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                        • Ray Merola: Very difficult to handicap until earnings come out. Can the retail investor create this much movement? Bought more NLY today.
                          7/5/13
                        • Be Here Now: With short rates pegged at zero, and long rates rising, these will earn more on the spread. Am I wrong?
                          7/6/13
                          • REIT Analyst
                            AGNC at 20.5 -- it's really interesting it's trading as if they had no hedges in place, or even if their hedges *lost* value!
                            7/5/13
                            Reply
                              • REIT Analyst
                                Long a lot of AGNC. I reckon BV is ~27. People who've buying and selling this stock don't understand how the hedges work apparently
                                6/13/13
                                Reply
                                  • REIT Analyst
                                    I knew I was right about $ARR (http://seekingalpha.com/a/rd3d). Now getting long $AGNC
                                    5/15/13
                                    Reply
                                      • REIT Analyst
                                        Hybrid mREITs down so far today; funny because bunch of the ABX indices is up 2%
                                        12/3/12
                                        Reply
                                          • REIT Analyst
                                            My piece on CIM's value is coming on SA Pro tomorrow AM at 9
                                            11/25/12
                                            Reply
                                              • REIT Analyst
                                                Looking into CIM's book value... Complicated but doable.
                                                11/20/12
                                                Reply (4)
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                                                • YellowLab1: What do you think ? Last time I saw an estimate it was something around 3.20 or so. SA currently list Price:Book of 0.79
                                                  11/21/12
                                                • jrbuettner: Looking forward to reading about CIM BV, the past rally in their paper should bring in a plump BV
                                                  11/25/12
                                                  • REIT Analyst
                                                    Ideas I am exploring: (1) Long servicers as a hybrid REIT hedge (2) Replace a REIT with long/short trades in Treasury futures and options
                                                    11/10/12
                                                    Reply (2)
                                                    • Darren McCammon: We'll see how well MSR's as a hedge for MBS works when NRZ reports at the end of June.
                                                      7/23/13
                                                    • REIT Analyst: Initially when rates backed up these servicing stocks did get slammed. The market is not always properly valuing all these moving parts
                                                      7/23/13
                                                      • REIT Analyst
                                                        Just sent in part 2 of the article on how to analyze hybrid mREITs (finally)
                                                        11/9/12
                                                        Reply
                                                          • REIT Analyst
                                                            ARR, EFC, IVR, MITT, TWO, WMC all dropped and bounced back exactly in parallel this morning. To me this smells like robots trading.
                                                            10/15/12
                                                            Reply (1)
                                                            • Ocean Man: WMC's move from minus 7% to plus 2% was crazy. AGNC caught a mid-day upgrade, might have been the catalyst.
                                                              10/16/12
                                                              • REIT Analyst
                                                                Thinking about adding some ARR
                                                                10/12/12
                                                                Reply (1)
                                                                • Jacob Teague: I added to my MITT holdings. We will see if it works out.
                                                                  10/12/12
                                                                  • REIT Analyst
                                                                    Sent in an article on the impact of QE3 on mREITs
                                                                    10/10/12
                                                                    Reply
                                                                      • REIT Analyst
                                                                        Just submitted an article on non-agency MBS / hybrid mREITs
                                                                        10/9/12
                                                                        Reply (3)
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                                                                        • Be Here Now: Same here.
                                                                          10/10/12
                                                                        • donenrique: Great articles! You have written the best articles I have seen yet on mReits. Thanks for the education. Much appreciated.
                                                                          10/10/12