REIT Analyst

Reits, research analyst, bonds, long/short equity
REIT Analyst
REITs, research analyst, bonds, long/short equity
Contributor since: 2012
12/22/15
REIT Analyst
Back 100% into mREITs, mostly non-agencies. Low spread duration, very cheap to BV, bulk of rates back ups priced into MBS...
12/30/15
NRZ too complex to value precisely (for me). MSR business is actually a nice way to balance long duration on other assets, not a negative.
12/30/15
I agree about the MSR business in general but with MTGE it has been an ongoing financial loss each quarter which has been a drag on earnings
8/22/14
REIT Analyst
MGIC - An Opportunity Through Mortgage Credit Exposure $MTG http://seekingalpha.com/a/1gb6v
12/20/13
REIT Analyst
$WMC short opportunity. 2.35 div = .80 real $, plus 1.55 new stock. Think curt BV down from 11/30 to 16.25. Trades at 17.15. Do the math.
$WMC short interest is 18% - and they will rush to the exit to avoid paying the 2.35 div; not so wise to short right now
Thanks for this trade idea. Interesting to see that some prefer to pay a premium for more risk.
7/31/13
REIT Analyst
I was so short $DX, but I had not anticipated such a big drop in BV. Short MFA too.
So, without the mistakes, do you have a sense how much would the BV drop?
I would have thought around -12%
7/29/13
REIT Analyst
$AGNC BV = good news for AGNC, but also for mREITs. Hedges do work when they are properly set up.
REIT Analyst. - You sure called that one right.
reit, basis has been on our side most of July.. Do you have an estimate of that impact from 6/30 to 7/30? Thanks (mbs outperforming TSY )
7/24/13
REIT Analyst
$HTS down 10%, that makes sense. $AGNC down $2.5%?? Market blindness creates opportunities but it is annoying.
I also still hold longer dated options.. 500 $20 December calls on MTGE @ about 50k cost average.
Sold 180 puts @ 0.16 today for 21 strike weeklies. Yay for market volatility.
7/24/13
REIT Analyst
Now waiting for $CMO's numbers. And $AGNC after that.
7/5/13
REIT Analyst
$AGNC: I wish someone could explain to me factually how it is 10-yrs at 2.70 can affect an agency mREIT hedging with swaps and swaptions....
Very difficult to handicap until earnings come out. Can the retail investor create this much movement? Bought more NLY today.
With short rates pegged at zero, and long rates rising, these will earn more on the spread. Am I wrong?
7/5/13
REIT Analyst
AGNC at 20.5 -- it's really interesting it's trading as if they had no hedges in place, or even if their hedges *lost* value!
6/13/13
REIT Analyst
Long a lot of AGNC. I reckon BV is ~27. People who've buying and selling this stock don't understand how the hedges work apparently
5/15/13
REIT Analyst
I knew I was right about $ARR (http://seekingalpha.com/a/rd3d). Now getting long $AGNC
12/3/12
REIT Analyst
Hybrid mREITs down so far today; funny because bunch of the ABX indices is up 2%
11/25/12
REIT Analyst
My piece on CIM's value is coming on SA Pro tomorrow AM at 9
11/20/12
REIT Analyst
Looking into CIM's book value... Complicated but doable.
11/21/12
What do you think ? Last time I saw an estimate it was something around 3.20 or so. SA currently list Price:Book of 0.79
11/25/12
Looking forward to reading about CIM BV, the past rally in their paper should bring in a plump BV
11/10/12
REIT Analyst
Ideas I am exploring: (1) Long servicers as a hybrid REIT hedge (2) Replace a REIT with long/short trades in Treasury futures and options
We'll see how well MSR's as a hedge for MBS works when NRZ reports at the end of June.
Initially when rates backed up these servicing stocks did get slammed. The market is not always properly valuing all these moving parts
11/9/12
REIT Analyst
Just sent in part 2 of the article on how to analyze hybrid mREITs (finally)
10/15/12
REIT Analyst
ARR, EFC, IVR, MITT, TWO, WMC all dropped and bounced back exactly in parallel this morning. To me this smells like robots trading.
10/16/12
WMC's move from minus 7% to plus 2% was crazy. AGNC caught a mid-day upgrade, might have been the catalyst.
10/12/12
REIT Analyst
Thinking about adding some ARR
10/12/12
I added to my MITT holdings. We will see if it works out.
10/10/12
REIT Analyst
Sent in an article on the impact of QE3 on mREITs
10/9/12
REIT Analyst
Just submitted an article on non-agency MBS / hybrid mREITs
10/10/12
Same here.
10/10/12
Great articles! You have written the best articles I have seen yet on mReits. Thanks for the education. Much appreciated.