As a result of Hurricane Sandy, several IPOs have rescheduled their pricing. Southcross Energy Partners has been pushed back until Thursday, 11/1. Taylor & Martin Group, Singulex, and Radius Health all delayed their pricings until next week. All three plan to price on 11/7.
IPO Preview: Vanguard Health Systems [View article]
The relevant valuation metric for hospital operators, particularly given their capital structures, is EV-to-EBITDA not P/E.
P/E can be useful, but in this case it is distorted due to changes in capital structure happening on the IPO. Again, you need to look at forward earnings, not trailing. A sales multiple may also be relevant if you think they can get their margins up closer to peers, but we fear the company may be structrually disadvantaged due to its focus on urban hospitals. True, interest ate up almost all of its operating income on a trailing basis, but the debt paydown on its IPO will reduce its annual interest expense by at least 15%. You really need to look at cash flow, which is what drives the business and investors' views on valuation. Finally, the company completed a material acquisition in early 2011, so again using a trailing P/E multiple without adjusting for that acquisition is misguided.
The book value argument also adds minimal value here, again owing to capital structure, PE transactions and consolidating nature of the industry (which leads to significant goodwill on the balance sheet of both Vanguard and most peers). And HCA has a negative book value. Book value is only relevant here to the extent you think you are are buying a phyical asset (that you will ultimately sell) as opposed to an operating entity. So again, not particularly relevant.
The real issue here is Vanguard's sub-par margins and high projected capital spend, which makes it less attractive relative to its publicly-traded peers.
Our institutional research fully examines all of these issues and puts into context Vanguard's overall valuation with its public peers: www.renaissancecapital...
Priced at $25 (above the filed range) . . . $1.3 billion in IPO proceeds makes it the largest Internet IPO since Google. Will be interesting to see how this trades following LinkedIn's debut last week. Yandex represents the only US-listed Russian Internet company. Russia's internet industry is still in the early stages of its development, representing an attractive secular growth story.
IPO Pick of the Week: Qihoo 360 Tech [View article]
With all due respect, how was our point confusing or unfocused? We merely are pointing out that looking at an annualized number is not how most investors value high-growth companies, particularly one that is at a very early stage of its expansion. The main point to our argument is that you have to look at the company's potential earnings/cash flows, which you do not address anywhere in your report. Indeed, looking at past or annualized financials can provide a "reality check", but only if you are comparing apples to apples, and only if you provide context for growth. You indicate that 84x is a "reasonable" multiple for a fast growth company with high gross margins. But what constitutes high growth for you and what are your assumptions on sustainable net margins (not gross)? Is it going to grow 20% or 40% or 100%? Will net margins peak at 20% or 30% or 40%? Answering these questions are critical to any valuation discussion here and dramatically impacts how to make an informed investment decision.
IPO Pick of the Week: Qihoo 360 Tech [View article]
Based on Qihoo's trading debut, investors are clearly anticipating extremely robust growth over the next few years. Accordingly, it offers minimal value to look at past or annualized 4Q earnings in assessing the valuation here. Our Pre-IPO research dives into the company's business model, competitive positioning and provide a detailed revenue and earnings model, which is a necessary step in looking at what the current valuation implies.
MagnaChip Semiconductor IPO Priced to Work? [View article]
To Both:
We believe MagnaChip's proforma earnings are indeed more representative than reported (GAAP) earnings for a number of reasons. At a minimum, investors should adjust for the following, which are non-cash in nature and are not directly comparable to other companies in the sector. 1) non-cash amortization of intangibles related to purchase accounting as a result of its bankruptcy and subsequent recap 2) non-cash FX gains/losses
Both of these items significantly distort the true underlying earnings of the business and should be excluded in our view.
Of course, with cyclical businesses, annualizing a quarter or looking at a specific year can be limited in assessing the valuation. The key for these companies is understanding the company's cash flow generation throughout the cycle, and ultimately, the returns-on-capital. Assuming MagnaChip can maintain positive top-line growth and expand margins to its targeted levels (which we provide a detailed analysis in our Pre-IPO research), the stock appears inexpensive.
The proposed price on GKH should be $12, which implies a market value of $182 million. This results in a 1.1x price/book, which makes sense for what is essentially a blank check vehicle.
We have published an in-depth analysis of this deal, including key investment risks and valuation analysis, which is available as part of our institutional research service.
2 Noteworthy IPO Filings: Freescale Semiconductor, Pandora Media [View article]
The ticker symbols FSHI and PM are for Renaissance Capital's internal use only, as discussed on our website at renaissancecapital.com. Both companies have yet to identify ticker symbols for their upcoming IPOs. Once they do, our site will be updated accordingly.
NeoPhotonics stands to benefit from a poweful telecom upgrade cycle currently underway, where carriers are increasingly allocating more of their capital budgets to boost their network capacity . . . our Pre-IPO research report included an in-depth analysis of NeoPhotonics' business, strategy and growth and earnings outlook, helping investors to better evaluate the company's potential and fair value www.renaissancecapital...
Many optical suppliers have reported strong number and issued bullish commentary on order trends (e.g. OPLK, OCLR, OPXT, JDSU), which we view as a very positive read-through for NeoPhotonics
How to Earn IPO Profits From the Inside [View article]
The first big private equity backed IPO of 2011, Nielsen Holdings is expected to price this week and begin trading on the NYSE under the ticker "NSLN". It is one of a handful of US IPOs slated to price over the next few weeks as the 2011 IPO market hopes to kick off on an active note . . www.renaissancecapital...
KKR and Blackstone are two of Nielsen's four major backers, so it will be interesting to see how these stocks respond assuming this IPO is a success. A successful debut could also set the stage for more IPO activity over the coming months from private equity firms as they look to the IPO market for liquidity and to reduce the large debt burdens of their portfolio companies. While indeed investing in publicly-traded private equity firms is an indirect way of gaining exposure to IPOs, it only offers exposure to a subset of the IPO market. In 2010, performance of private equity backed IPOs trailed overall IPO performance, albeit by a small margin. However, performance among individual PE-backed IPOs varied widely, and this group of IPOs accounted for 3 of the 5 worst IPO performers in 2010. Alternatively, there is a publicly traded mutual fund (IPOSX) provides more broader exposure to the IPO market as a whole, including investments in fast growing growth companies typically not held by provide equity firms.
6 IPOs Planned For This Week [View article]
http://bit.ly/Y1WUKX
Workday: On-Demand Enterprise IPOs Continue To Command Investor Interest [View article]
Here's our IPO Profile:
http://bit.ly/Tu0ok1
Heading Toward an 'Eloqua-ent' IPO [View article]
www.renaissancecapital...
Eloqua was one of 6 IPOs to file yesterday including three tech/software companies
www.renaissancecapital...
IPO Preview: Vanguard Health Systems [View article]
P/E can be useful, but in this case it is distorted due to changes in capital structure happening on the IPO. Again, you need to look at forward earnings, not trailing. A sales multiple may also be relevant if you think they can get their margins up closer to peers, but we fear the company may be structrually disadvantaged due to its focus on urban hospitals. True, interest ate up almost all of its operating income on a trailing basis, but the debt paydown on its IPO will reduce its annual interest expense by at least 15%. You really need to look at cash flow, which is what drives the business and investors' views on valuation. Finally, the company completed a material acquisition in early 2011, so again using a trailing P/E multiple without adjusting for that acquisition is misguided.
The book value argument also adds minimal value here, again owing to capital structure, PE transactions and consolidating nature of the industry (which leads to significant goodwill on the balance sheet of both Vanguard and most peers). And HCA has a negative book value. Book value is only relevant here to the extent you think you are are buying a phyical asset (that you will ultimately sell) as opposed to an operating entity. So again, not particularly relevant.
The real issue here is Vanguard's sub-par margins and high projected capital spend, which makes it less attractive relative to its publicly-traded peers.
Our institutional research fully examines all of these issues and puts into context Vanguard's overall valuation with its public peers:
www.renaissancecapital...
IPO Preview: Yandex N.V., Russian Search Engine [View article]
More on Yandex:
www.renaissancecapital...
3 IPOs Planned This Week [View article]
Invite LinkedIn to Join Your IPO Portfolio [View article]
IPO Pick of the Week: Qihoo 360 Tech [View article]
IPO Pick of the Week: Qihoo 360 Tech [View article]
www.renaissancecapital...
View our featured IPO write-up on Qihoo
www.renaissancecapital...
MagnaChip Semiconductor IPO Priced to Work? [View article]
We believe MagnaChip's proforma earnings are indeed more representative than reported (GAAP) earnings for a number of reasons. At a minimum, investors should adjust for the following, which are non-cash in nature and are not directly comparable to other companies in the sector.
1) non-cash amortization of intangibles related to purchase accounting as a result of its bankruptcy and subsequent recap
2) non-cash FX gains/losses
Both of these items significantly distort the true underlying earnings of the business and should be excluded in our view.
Of course, with cyclical businesses, annualizing a quarter or looking at a specific year can be limited in assessing the valuation. The key for these companies is understanding the company's cash flow generation throughout the cycle, and ultimately, the returns-on-capital. Assuming MagnaChip can maintain positive top-line growth and expand margins to its targeted levels (which we provide a detailed analysis in our Pre-IPO research), the stock appears inexpensive.
www.renaissancecapital...
Renaissance Capital
IPO Analysis: Greenwich Kahala Aviation [View article]
www.renaissancecapital...
We have published an in-depth analysis of this deal, including key investment risks and valuation analysis, which is available as part of our institutional research service.
www.renaissancecapital...
2 Noteworthy IPO Filings: Freescale Semiconductor, Pandora Media [View article]
Chip IPO: NeoPhotonics [View article]
www.renaissancecapital...
Many optical suppliers have reported strong number and issued bullish commentary on order trends (e.g. OPLK, OCLR, OPXT, JDSU), which we view as a very positive read-through for NeoPhotonics
12 IPOs Set to Debut This Week [View article]
www.renaissancecapital...
How to Earn IPO Profits From the Inside [View article]
www.renaissancecapital...
KKR and Blackstone are two of Nielsen's four major backers, so it will be interesting to see how these stocks respond assuming this IPO is a success. A successful debut could also set the stage for more IPO activity over the coming months from private equity firms as they look to the IPO market for liquidity and to reduce the large debt burdens of their portfolio companies. While indeed investing in publicly-traded private equity firms is an indirect way of gaining exposure to IPOs, it only offers exposure to a subset of the IPO market. In 2010, performance of private equity backed IPOs trailed overall IPO performance, albeit by a small margin. However, performance among individual PE-backed IPOs varied widely, and this group of IPOs accounted for 3 of the 5 worst IPO performers in 2010. Alternatively, there is a publicly traded mutual fund (IPOSX) provides more broader exposure to the IPO market as a whole, including investments in fast growing growth companies typically not held by provide equity firms.
You can learn more about the IPO Plus Fund here. . .
www.renaissancecapital...