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  • Mobile Ads Growing Rapidly: Apple Leads In Monetizing Content [View article]
    Andy, thank you for an excellent summary. Your article is a reminder of an advertising revenue stream that I often forget.

    The eventual success of Tim Cook's tenure may well be measured more on his monetization of Apple's strategic position in advertising than on his success in hardware. This is not an area where Steve Jobs, with his Google alliance, was particularly successful. Hopefully for Apple's long term growth, Tim will do better.
    Nov 23, 2012. 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Just Disrupted The Tablet Market [View article]
    It's not clear whether Jeff Bezos just pulled a Steve Jobs or a PT Barnum-- with shareholders of Amazon as the "suckers born every minute."

    I ordered the earlier Kindle Fire and after I tried it I wouldn't even give it as a Christmas present. And supposedly they packaged $10-20 in losses with each one. There is no estimate yet on how much loss he incurs with this new device-- assuming it is a substantial upgrade-- but Bezos does not have a lot of net margin to spare.

    Finally, what is the mysterious future development that will finally give Amazon some pricing power to begin generating respectable margins?
    Sep 7, 2012. 10:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft, Apple And The Unbearable Wrongness Of Assumptions [View article]
    Hi, Steve,

    Sound advice, but overstated:
    "If you wait until your guess proves true, then you've likely missed the majority of the upswing in the stock".

    You could have waited until mid-2008, when iPhone was flying off the shelves, Apple was under $200/sh, and tripled your money by now.

    Similarly, you could have waited until one year after iPad-- mid-2011-- and made outsized earnings-- 50% in one year-- on your money.

    Even today, with six-year, accelerating earnings growth of 66% and the stock at 8x earnings after discounting cash, buying AAPL on past numbers still promises outsized returns.
    Jun 22, 2012. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Don't Expect The Moon [View article]
    Thanks for a nicely thought out article. Very informative and useful. Let me add an additional factor from another SA posting today by Weezy Miyagi. He points out that, while the US Holiday season is in AAPL Q1, the Chinese New Year in AAPL Q2 is a very big buying season. It will loom larger and larger as Apple's Chinese presence continues to grow. In fact this may partly explain Apple's surprisingly strong numbers in Q2 last year.

    Miyagi also points out the fascinating fact that China is the world's second largest luxury market, after... Japan! See
    Apr 23, 2012. 08:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Conservative Outook For Apple's Present And Future, Part 2 [View article]
    My apologies to the readers for the error in the text; the calculations did indeed use a 10%discount rate. As I was preparing the article, I was playing "what if" games to check the sensitivity to my assumptions. In the text of the final submission I inserted the correct discount rate but didn't change the product examples.
    Apr 16, 2012. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    Thanks, rickraphael.

    In fact, three years ago I downloaded Robert Schiller's course and listened to all 28 or so lectures during my daily bicycle ride.

    Downloaded from iTunes and listened on my iPhone, of course.

    I agree with your comment entirely: sell Apple and buy what?
    Apr 2, 2012. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    Thanks, Demonical,

    I began accumulating AAPL in June 2006 at $53/sh, so for most of the holdings it is well more than doubled.

    I would not unload the whole position, but recalling that:
    - Apple is not a "bubble", given its P/E less than the S&P and its spectacular growth.
    - It is not an Enron with phantom businesses and profits
    - Its momentum from a.) new product sales, b.) penetration of the huge China market and c.) the refresh of its products driven by Moor's law seems sustainable

    So what's left is a "Black Swan" event that will take down most other equities I might invest in.

    Could it be that in this case the old saw "If it seems too good to be true it probably is" may not hold?
    Apr 2, 2012. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    Thanks, Aportfoliodoctor,

    It may come as no surprise to you, given my focus (fixation?) on inflation that the only holding of any size beside Apple in my portfolio is GLD.

    I will try the Yahoo Finance search.
    Apr 2, 2012. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    Rudy, Thanks,

    I had not been implementing stop loss, but it clearly ought to be on the table.
    Apr 2, 2012. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    A heartfelt "thank you" to all the commenters who have shared their experience of the perils of over-investment in retirement.

    If I may use a metaphor, investing today is like navigating down a rapids, faced with two options: there may be a waterfall ahead in the form of a market catastrophe; and hugging the safe shore risks a disaster from an inflation catastrophe.
    Apr 2, 2012. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    Thanks, Gensearch2, for your thoughtful guidance.

    One factor that weighs heavily on my thinking is inflation.
    The weight comes from my Dad's experience. He retired as a steelworker in 1974 with a modest pension and in the high inflation of the next decade saw the dollar decline by a factor of 5, and the buying power of his pension decline with it.

    Many knowledgable folks point out that the monetary and fiscal maneuvers undertaken in response to this "Great Recession" will have similar inflation as its endgame. When we get to that point, we will no longer have the time and the risk opportunities available to cushion ourselves against the loss.

    I would appreciate your thoughts on this factor.
    Apr 2, 2012. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. A Portfolio Of Solid Brand Names: Still No Comparison [View article]
    Thanks, Sartre,
    I have always been told that a "gold mine" is when a stock's fundamentals are badly mismatched to its price. Getting growth in the high double digits for a P/E in the low double digits seems like such an opportunity. Like you, I am willing to wait until this mismatch corrects, hopefully with expanding P/E.

    If inflation materializes, as so many predict, we retirees will need all the extra cushion we can accumulate.
    Apr 2, 2012. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    China, through US technology and companies, is lifting itself out of a half century of repression and brutality. Where were all these "compassionate souls" when Mao's goofy socialist policies were starving Chinese to death by the tens of millions? Perhaps among the Western youth who were waving Mao's "Little Red Book" in tribute to that great leaders socialist wisdom. Why are they leaving the desperate poverty of the countryside to line up and apply to live in dorms at Foxconn? Did ABC ask them?

    Mar 28, 2012. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Income Inequality In The U.S. [View article]
    E.M. While I appreciate your compassion, I am of the opinion that corporations should be left to production, investment, profits and dividends. Care of folks who are in need should be left to the charitable institutions that have always helped. Further, if the government would seize less of our earnings for its goofy "social programs" (the War on Poverty!?), you and I would be able to help a great many more folks who we know are truly in need.
    Mar 22, 2012. 10:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Signs Apple Shares May Rebound To New Highs, Again [View article]

    Another very nice summary. Would you please comment on the "reality" of the widely-held market opinion that you cited:
    "Apple is expected to generate about $42.72 and $47.49 in net earnings per share respectively during the years ending September 2012 and September 2013." Thats about 20% then 10% growth.
    Specifically, given that"
    -Apple has grown earning 66%/yr over the past 6 yrs;
    -Apple has grown earning 88%/yr over the past 2 yrs;
    -Apple has grown earning 98%/yr over the past 1 yr;
    -iPhone sales are accelerating;
    -iPad is coming on like a freight train;
    -Macs sales are growing smartly
    what do you estimate as the 2012 and 2013 earnings?
    Mar 7, 2012. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment