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Retail Maven's  Instablog

Retail Maven
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My interest is evaluation of retail establishments by investigating their operational success or failure rather than relying solely upon financial reporting. I am a retired retailer who owned furniture, carpet and computer stores.
  • Accuracy Of Retail Maven Articles

    I write using "Retail Maven", a name that shows my deep interest in the retail industry. I am a retired retailer who has joined the world of equity trading.

    Like many who write about finance I have a strong concern whether my predictions are valid. You may judge my accuracy by viewing the list of my recent articles and reading those that are of interest to you, then comparing your evaluation to mine.

    I place my work in consecutive ascending order by date, without omission. I rate by accuracy on a scale of 1% to 100% after sufficient time has passed.

    If you dispute the correctness of any of my claims please contact me. I will reasonably defend what I have written or admit my error.

    Unlike many who give advice I suggest when to enter an investment and when to exit.

    Date .......... Article .......... Claim .......... % Accuracy

    A time arrives when advice becomes old, and should no longer be relied upon. I no longer follow JCP and BBBY.

    Date .......... Article .......... Claim .......... % Accuracy

    Today's 14.66% fall provides exceptional profits for short sellers. So out for now, but don't blame me if LL continues to fall. I am a investor who believes in periodically removing profits.

    Date .......... Article .......... Claim .......... % Accuracy

    • Dec 11, 2013
    • Tuesday Morning Corp. Did Steven Becker catch a rising star?
    • Will fall. Stock closed at $14.33 on Dec 11,2013
    • Did not fall greatly yet, but wait. 2-4-14
    • December 16, 2013 (5:57pm)
    • J.C. Penney, A Bridge too Far!
    • J.C. Penney will continue to have problems. Stock closed at $8.48 on Dec 16, 2013
    • Accurate. Stock below $6. per share in Feb 2014
    • December 20, 2013 (10:07am)
    • Francesca's Holding Corp. and The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
    • Francesca's price will increase. Stock opened $17.55 today and closed at $17.80
    • Stock increased to $18.18 - Not enough to be definitive 2/3/14
    • December 20, 2013
    • Tuesday morning increased against to $15.54 today countering my counsel (fall from $14.33 level). I shorted additional.
    • Accuracy to be noted in TUES article above.
    • January 6, 2014 (5am)
    • Will the Lowe's Companies Catch Up with Home Depot
    • Home Depot's price will increase at more rapid rate than Lowe's Home Depot opened today at $81.65 closed at $81.10
    • Lowe's price will slightly underperform market Lowe's price opened today at $48.97 closed at $48.26
    • Differential not yet apparent. Both equities fell in price 2/3/14
    • January 8, 2014 (6:30pm)
    • J.C. Penney - Behold a Pale Horse JCP closed at $8.19 on Jan 7th - Closed at $7.37 on Jan 8
    • Company will be restructured by end of 2014
    • Must wait to end of 2014, but on track
    • Jan 10, 2014 (12:08pm) Francesca's (FRAN) rose today and closed at $22.50., up $4.42. I sold out taking profit. To be consistent with my action I advised you sell. After my advice Francesca fell $4.45 in the aftermarket closing at $18.05. I find no reason for the decline, and hope to repurchase FRAN on Monday. - 1/19/14 Good luck or high skill by me - You decide.
    • Jan 10, 2014 (market close) Tuesday Morning (TUES) closed at to $13.45 today. It closed at $14.33 on Dec 11 the day I advised to short it. Then it rose to $16.38 on Dec 30, 2013 Note: On Jan 3, 2014 Credit Suisse gave TUES an outperform with a target price of $17. (remember this when you evaluate your brokers next guidance)
    • Jan 13, 2014 (3:07pm)
    • Francesca's Holding Corp. and The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
    • I repurchased my original position, which I sold on Jan 10, 2014 at a discount from my selling price. Closed today at $21.23
    • New round of evaluation to be determined.
    • Jan 13, 2014 (4:10pm)
    • Blue Nile Inc. and King Solomon's Mines.
    • Recommend for long term appreciation (1 year). Closed at $41.75 I purchased NILE during the day (Not at low) My article published after market close.
    • Accuracy to be determined.
    • January 13, 2013 (Morning)
    • Tuesday Morning. Did Steven Becker Catch a Rising Star?
    • I closed out my short position to gain a small profit. My traders instinct overrode my good judgment. - Look for price in April 14
    • Jan 16, 2014 (Before market opening)
    • The TJX Companies - A Time to Love, a Time to Buy! Open $62.48
    • Company represents good long term investment with little risk
    • Accuracy to be determined
    • Jan 20, 2014
    • Is J.C. Penney Past the Point of No Return?
    • Company failing quickly
    • Accuracy to be determined
    • Jan 22, 2014 8:51 am
    • The Kohl's Company and The Kiss of Death
    • Slow growth compared to competition. Closed $51.37 1-22-14
    • Accuracy to be determined
    • Jan 28, 2014 11:51 am
    • Can J.C. Penney Be Saved?
    • Radical changes that may save J.C. Penney
    • Not applicable to determine accuracy
    • Feb 3, 2014 8:56 am
    • Should An Investor Remain Vested With Tiffany & Co. .....
    • Tiffany will perform moderately. Closed $80.88 2-3-14
    • Accuracy to be determined.
    • Feb 5, 2014 9:32 am
    • The Demise of American Retaling and The Black Death
    • Over use of sale promotion
    • Weakness will occur in stores that over promote
    • Accuract to be determined - Kohl's, Macys, J.C. Penney
    Dec 05 11:26 PM | Link | Comment!
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