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  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Killacycle has a lot of technical knowledge of batteries and I have much respect for that. However he seems bent on bashing Axion as every time he pokes his nose in here it is only to rain on Axion's parade. Not sure why the negative bias but I'm sure that's the case 'cuz IIRC he's never had a word positive to say or even neutral about Axion or PbC. All negative. I'd call that bias. I don't even understand why somebody with such a negative view would bother following this blog.

    This notion du jour he's pushing that an NDA policy for tinkerers will lead to bankruptcy is one of the more absurd non sequiturs I've seen in a while. Really? If BMW adopts PbC for a production model then the NDAs are still going to hold Axion back and sink the ship? If the fantastic economics of PowerCubes leads to geometric sales growth those NDAs will be straight jackets? C'mon. Find a new point to bash that is at least entertaining.
    Aug 20 12:57 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Bob> A little food for thought. Of course it's imprudent to invest more than one can afford to lose in any one place. That said, here's a true Buffett anecdote.

    When the iPhone became wildly successful on the heels of Apple's other turnaround triumphs, it was amassing an enormous cash pile very rapidly. Steve Jobs phoned Buffett and asked him for advice what to do with the cash. Buffett replied "Is your stock undervalued?" Jobs said he definitely thought AAPL was undervalued (something like $175/sh or split adjusted about $25/sh). Buffett said, "So take the company's cash and buy back stock."

    I'll never forget the lesson in Buffett's reasoning. He told Jobs that as an Apple insider that had toiled for decades in the sector he obviously knew Apple's prospects better than any other investment he might look at. If he was sure the prospects were bright compared to what the share price was factoring in then logically he should invest in the thing he knew best versus something he did not know as well.

    So Bob I think as a former Axion insider/director few people understand the PbCs prospects as welll as you. And you likely don't have as deep a knowledge of other places you might park your money.

    So it boils down to how excited and certain are you of the PbCs prospects to be bright? If the answer if "very" then you'd be a fool not to use the last decade's worth of knowledge gathering to your advantage and buy more shares. Don't be ruled by the emotion of the paper loss. Don't believe the market if your analysis contradicts it.
    Aug 18 07:18 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    "elementary problems that have been apparently major issues at ePower."

    Armchair quarterbacking IMO.
    Aug 17 03:55 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    topcat> I too am a very big fan of Buffett. However I think he would not touch a stock like Axion. He is known for investing in 'sure things' and has likened his investing style to being a batter who never has to worry about called strikes. Therefore he just waits and waits for that pitch that's super easy to hit, i.e. the 'sure thing'. As a result he always has eschewed all tech stocks such as Axion because tech is ever changing. He has also avoided unprofitable companies like Axion unless they are so cheap that the parts can be sold for more than he paid for the whole. (That was his "cigar butt" style of investing in his early years which he gave up when he started dealing with larger sums.)
    Aug 17 01:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    "Make my day and tell me how the share price could possibly get back to $1 pre-RS value and when."

    Bob> It could happen and in less time than imaginable. A major design win announcement or two along with ramping Cube sales could get AXPW noticed.

    For what I mean by "noticed", take a look at certain alt energy stock charts as the sector caught fire last year. The PLUG chart is arguably the poster boy for the phenomenon. http://yhoo.it/1yLYUq1 While PLUG enjoyed excellent news during this period it was by no means enough reason for the 100 fold run, trough to peak.

    It's critical to understand that with daily dollar volume trading of five or maybe six figures on a good day, AXPW's market is like a tiny backwoods hamlet that is destined to become a bustling town. I would venture to guess that when daily $ volume averages high six to low seven figures you'll be much closer to being whole. In the meantime it may be a good time to pick up some more shares??

    I think AXPW would be a no-brainer buy now if it weren't for their playing so fast and loose with the share printing machine.
    Aug 17 01:02 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    "you should trust his experience btw"

    Relatively few fields do I trust the recognized experts to know best. Nukes would be one as I don't have the background to grasp it and, well, when the stakes are as high as nuclear power I'm pretty sure the experts will leave no stone unturned. The atom is also pretty straightforward. Physics works exactly the same way every time and objective measures leave little doubt as to what is true.

    Nothing personal to John and any other experts here but generally speaking many times have I discovered that experts in a given field are merely exhibiting herding behavior; conventional thinking becomes synonymous with truth. Lip service is paid in glory to "thinking outside the box" but most actually hate it. It challenges their beliefs.

    For example I'm 100% convinced that the mainstream medical establishment is currently living in the dark ages in terms of understanding how malnutrition contributes to degenerative disease. And so the true solutions usually lie in not drugs but in changing one's habits. I have personally experienced powerful 'cures' of my own ailments that drugs never provided by simply learning how to look in the mirror at my own habits honestly, making a few changes, and adding some natural nutritional supplements. Here's a naturopath who explains quite well what the human body needs nutritionally and how deficiencies become diseases. http://bit.ly/1m3HEqC The true cure then is to correct behavior in most cases.

    It's been wisely said that for every one who digs for the root of evil, there are a hundred just hacking at the branches. Western medicine is the hundred. I take anything a doctor tells me with a huge grain of sodium. :)
    Aug 15 10:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    "Do not forget that the market is anticipating the anticipation of others. It's enough to have the fear of cheap shares to have cheap shares, nothing more."

    Yes but this is true of all stocks at all times. :)

    "You cannot set both dates ("owners as of ..." and "can buy as of ...") to be the same,"

    Setting announcement date, record date, exercise period and VWAP determination period would all require very careful thought. I don't pretend to know what's best but I remain optimistic that a workable solution is possible that aligns subscribers' and market participants' interests with the company's, unlike certain past investors.

    "If somehow one has to subscribe in advance, most would fear that the others will not play the game. If the financing fails because of that, the price would go much lower than 21c, so why bother? "

    The fear that nobody will show up to the party is overblown. (Even as a flip it looks attractive to subscribe for /some/ shares.) Why is that unfounded fear of the unknown so much more powerful than the more sensible fear of the known (dancing with devils)? The deal could get undersubscribed but its participation will not be zero. An abject failure might then mean a raise of $2 or 3 million which would buy enough time to extend and sweeten the terms by for example throwing in long dated 5 year warrants with strike prices 200 or 300% higher than current market. Potentially very valuable but in no way dilutive at current levels or depressing of current market price. A nice carrot if you ask me since we Axionistas believe AXPW will be a ten bagger plus in time.

    Another solution to prevent undersubscription would be to start with a very high maximum subscription limit of 10 shares per 1 share owned but then prorate that depending on aggregate shares subscribed. For example, allow 10:1 if only the target, say a $15 million raise, is reached. To the degree that subscriptions exceed the target raise, prorate all subscriptions so ultimately once the total is known the company can limit each shareholder to 7:1 or 4:1 or 1:1, whatever it takes to end up with the target (which in my hypothetical was 85.5M new shares and $16 million).

    Originally I had said the limit would be 1.5 shares to 1. Since there is worry nobody will show up to the party then start it out at 10:1 and cut back any excess if needed. I think a decent raise is then ensured as even a relatively small % of shareholders who choose 5:1 or 10:1 will more than make up for those who choose 0.

    Even if it's only $5 to $10 million raised this way (a failure) that is at least 6-12 months of runway. Heck the PIPE deal only netted $8.3 million at a colossal cost of 136M shares (versus just 114M awarded to ALL past investors since 2003, for roughly $90 million)!
    Aug 15 05:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    "everybody would know that huge amount of shares at this price would be soon available"

    Nicu> No I highly doubt the market would drop at all. The only way to receive the 30% discount would be to own shares, thus owning _more_ and thus bidding up modestly to get in on the deal would make sense. You assume those shares "would soon be available" in the market but they won't. Not in the market; only a limited number are soon available to each registered owner. To "catch your limit" of the huge number if that is your intent you must buy, not sell, in the market prior to the record date.

    In other words, using your numbers, if the price is $.30 and holding until record date entitles you to the right to buy more at $.21, who the heck would sell prior to the record date? It would make no sense; the shares with the rights attached should be worth a small premium not a large discount.

    So I disagree that there would be a huge sell off prior to the deal, from shareholders believing the new shares would flood the market. The new shares are going to existing shareholders, i.e. 'strong hands'. Further, since Axion receives $.21 cash for each share issued the increased cash position offsets much of the dilution, i.e. the company is considerably more valuable from the cash despite being divided into more pieces of pie. The market will understand this.
    Aug 15 04:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Been thinking about the awful predicament that is companies like Axion that burn cash and need to go to the well for cash repeatedly under such brutal terms (mostly a self fulfilled prophecy; financings are brutal largely due to a falling share price which is fallen due to the need for the frequent cash infusions and fear of the resulting heavy dilution).

    There was wistful talk last year about Axion coming to us shareholders for the needed cash in the form of a rights offering (issuing warrants). Problem with that is there is no assurance of generating the cash; warrants may not be exercised and certainly won't be if the market price falls below the strike price. That is likely too with a flood of new marketable warrants.

    So here's an idea: what if a "do or die" rights offering was attached to each outstanding share as of a given Record date? In other words, shareholders of record on such a date could purchase up to 1.5 shares for each share held at a price 30% below a recent market VWAP. There could be a 60 day expiration on the offer and no warrant or other marketable security issued; just the right for a 60 day window. Further the company could guarantee for 9 months that a subsequent similar offering would not be at a price lower than this offering.

    I believe these would be the result:

    -significant cash would be generated as an opportunity to buy at 30% below market is quite tasty and the window to exercise very short.
    -market price leading up to the record date should be quite strong, likely *rising* to get in on the offering, unlike the 2013 PIPE announcement which tanked the market price horribly
    -30% discount compares favorably for any legacy shareholders who choose not to participate versus the higher, more dilutive discounts of past financings
    -rewards rather than punishes patient legacy shareholders
    -don't have to pay Wall Street a-holes like Maxim a whopping 8% of the proceeds, an incredible number to me
    -don't have to pay interest
    -don't have to bow to the obscene terms buried in insanely convoluted contracts, such as 18% interest rate provisions triggered by things beyond Axion's control, etc, etc (boils my blood just thinking how much time we Axionistas wasted poring over that 200+ page PIPE contract)
    -no ratchet adjustments; no incentive for the new shares to get pounded into the market

    Let me hypothesize based on Axion's situation in early 2013 as it contemplated doing the PIPE deal. If the market cap on announcement were $30 million, it seems likely this rights offering could boost it conservatively 10% or so to near $33 million by bidders who wish to subscribe at 30% below market. Not a huge boost but huge in contrast to the PIPE deal announcement which in 2013 cut the market price _in half initially_ and much further down from there later on due to their relentless selling pressure.

    Supposing just half of outstanding shares get subscribed when recent VWAP is at a $30 million market cap, as was the case when the 2013 deal was announced:

    -half of the 114M shares is 57M X 1.5 new shares = 85.5M new shares. 114M shares @ $30M cap = $.263 per share at market. 30% discount is the opportunity to temporarily buy a limited number of shares at $.184. If half of outstanding shares were subscribed, Axion would issue 85.5M new shares @ $.184 generating nearly $16 million in cash.

    Instead of the 236M issued to PIPE jerks for a mere $8.3M cash net, we might have had just 85.5M issued for nearly twice as much cash and those shares would have gone to deserving legacy owners instead of jerks. Further, nobody at any time would have the ability and incentive to kill the share price. This whole past year of getting brutalized down as low as $.08 would have been avoided. This brutalization (low market price) is the chief reason that the next round will also be brutal, as the effects of a bad financing compound to the next one.

    Thoughts? Anybody see an Achilles heel in something like this where it wouldn't work?
    Aug 15 03:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    iindy> You're quite the gentleman in your use of "dancing partners" to refer to those who've sodomized us.
    Aug 15 01:59 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    A bit of math based on the 10Q just filed: the 2013 PIPE deal in the end gave 54.5% of the company away (136.5 million shares) in return for IIRC $8.3 million net. While we've seen the end of shares issued (finally!) the damage is not done as surely the remaining 29.5 million PIPEr shares are in weaker hands that will pressure the market for a while yet, despite the selling limitations.

    I'm sorry but I have to gave management an F for the 2013 financing in terms of caring for legacy shareholders, communicating with them, and taking proactive steps that could have ameliorated the hell that this deal wreaked for a mere $8.3 million. And here comes another deal on the horizon with, amazingly, Maxim brokering again.
    Aug 15 03:54 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 356 August 7 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    Thanks alsobird. My thoughts on ePower's model generally paralleled your takeaway from that hour though I was guessing since I've seen nothing with my own eyes. That the in house fabrication of a few guys could be so good is not something I expected and is great to hear.

    I was able to buy shares non-accredited when that window of opportunity existed before the selling shareholder became a Director which closed the window (COI).

    My guess is that trade shows won't generate that much excitement but real world truckers getting some 30% better fuel economy certainly will. Barring unforeseen reliability or longevity issues I don't see how ~30% better cost performance on a trucker's biggest expense can not be a winner. As in many things the grapevine can go viral and be the best advertising that money can't buy.
    Aug 10 12:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 356 August 7 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    alsobird> Is there a trip meter mpg readout? Any idea what mileage you got?
    Aug 9 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Upped My Gold Short: My Market Outlook [View article]
    ugly> Your bar for respect is superhuman omniscience. Timing both the buy and sell perfectly (with 10 years in between yet never pulling the sell trigger) is a tall order for your respect.

    I did buy gold at near $300 but very little. I was ready to buy in earnest when it got back closer to $250 which it never did. Silver had looked better to me at the time and between 2000 and 2002 I amassed one of the biggest overweight positions of any investment I've owned -- in silver bullion. Average cost $4.50/ounce. I did extremely well in silver and held most of it for a lot of years deep into multibagger territory. The biggest chunks I sold were in fact during the April 2011 skyrocket past $45/oz. I thus in effect called the top on silver but not with the entire investment. (The top of gold I missed by a long shot.) So maybe these facts will earn just a little of your respect.

    I have no opinion on silver from here at $20 but gold at $1300 needs to fall. I believe gravity will sooner or later claim the heavy metal like a riffle in a sluicebox.
    Aug 5 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Upped My Gold Short: My Market Outlook [View article]
    Coins> Thanks. Cherrypicking with hindsight certain numismatics that have appreciated fantastically as collectibles is not the comparison that counts here. It's like saying if somebody had stuck all their money in Tiffany lamps or Stipe teddy bears in the 1920's they would have had a fantastic run. Nobody knew it at the time. Other items from the era are next to worthless.

    We are debating in these comments about whether "gold bullion" is a top way to preserve purchasing power long term, not particular date/condition scarcities of coins. This brings up a good point though and something I have written on in the past at length; that if one fears paper and wants to own hard assets in one's own possession, then antiques, real estate, and other physical assets look /far/ better than gold bullion at $1300/oz. If somebody likes obsolete collectible coins then by all means invest in numismatics which generally are not so precarious and risky as gold bullion.

    As for shorting gold, I'm very sure I've got the big picture right on this. It may take years to play out though. I'm not a risk taker so I rarely short anything. I might trade 100 times in a year and of those typically 1 or 2 percent might be shorts. When I do short something my position size is always small as I do like to sleep nights and losses can exceed 100%.
    Aug 3 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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