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  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    iinde> The amount of braking energy available to capture depends on mass and velocity and light rail is 'light' on both counts. Maybe capturing it is worthwhile but I expect there are plenty of lower hanging fruit than light rail in terms of cost/benefit to add battery storage, due to light rail's lack of an inefficient ICE.

    Heavy diesel equipment comes to mind and cranes we know have been looked at as a PbC application. A PbC bank paired with a stationary diesel generator could allow one to downsize the generator (exactly as ePower is doing). I'd love to see Axion partner with Briggs or somebody in this. They could go straight to market instead of waiting for years of testing by an OEM.

    The other problem I see is why use batteries at all for light rail? Carrying a couple tons of batteries around all the time requires energy that must be netted against the energy saved. If braking energy is captured I expect it could be simply fed back immediately to the grid instead of stored in batteries, which is less efficient anyway.

    For areas where there is no grid power I expect it would make more sense to extend the grid than to carry heavy batteries everywhere that aren't used all the time and take up passenger space, require maintenance, etc.

    Just my speculation -- if DOT decides to support PbC in light rail applications I'm all for it!
    Apr 20 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Thanks all. Just to clarify, by locomotives I was thinking freight trains. The opportunity there at 800 to 1700 batteries per unit is pretty incredible. If any passenger train ever uses PbC I'll consider it a bonus but that's not factored into my investment thesis at this point.

    My understanding of NS' needs for a locomotive is very poor compared to their understanding, but fortunately for us they have endorsed the PbC in multiple news releases and named Axion in various documents and a trade show as their partner in greening locomotives. The fact that NS does not mention lithium or other types of batteries or other battery manufacturers is huge IMO. If they were toying with other battery chemistries they would have said so, so by deduction we can say they are committed to the PbC. There is no indication they are testing any other battery so I'd say the odds of them changing horses at this point are extremely low.

    Given the above, that AXPW trades for $30 million it truly is a 'broken stock'. The NS writing on the wall alone, at 800 to 1700 batteries per locomotive, makes Axion worth more than $30M. That's if no other PbC application ever were to emerge.

    As for light rail, every instance I have seen was fully electric and grid powered so I see no real reason why batteries of any kind would be added. (No wasted ICE energy to capture and I doubt there's much braking energy to capture that would make it worth the trouble.)
    Apr 20 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    "We may be really really good at charge acceptance, but sometimes being good enough is sufficient."

    jmc>Sometimes, yes, such as battery storage for stationary power. For high state of charge applications -- FM, peak shaving, renewables backup; there are other options than PbC that do the work.

    However for the most demanding deep cycling, fast recharge (think regen braking) applications, PbC is the only thing that works. ePower has come out and said as much and they spent 2 years trying other batteries. They were in fact bent on using cheaper batteries but there was no way.

    NS tried AGM, to their great public embarrassment. Could locomotives go with lithium-ion? I am highly doubtful. An electric locomotive string is 1080 batteries. Imagine the nightmare of trying to get a BMS to keep a thousand batteries at the same state of charge! Think of the cost of having a union employee dedicated to the task of testing batteries in that massive string and swapping them out timely before they cause others to fail. Not to mention the down time. The benefit of a self equalizing (PbC) string is absolutely huge for an application like that. Plus lithium is more expensive, so what's the incentive? Then there's the hassle of thermal management to keep lithium in its happy zone, and the major risk of fire when you put 1000 batteries in a confined area.

    I cannot speak for something like the Kia's 48v BSG as to whether carbon additives will ultimately prove to be 'good enough', but I don't see the PbC currently having any competition in heavy trucks and locomotives.
    Apr 20 08:51 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    "I'd love to look back and eat crow if Axion does a placement higher than last years initial pps."

    zook> Nothing personal but my fondest wish is now that you will be dining on crow. :-P
    Apr 19 07:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    RBrun> News could surely fuel the fire and that is my hope. During the last year any little flicker that got started the PIPErs could and did dump water on it. That's no longer the case.

    I do agree that there are many lurkers and in the event that a clear path to PbC sales emerges LOTS of buyers will be scrambling to leap onto the caboose of the train that is accelerating away from the station. It will be fun indeed.

    I think the real fun will be when some institutions decide they want to own high six or seven figure stakes. Take a look at the stunning lack of institutional ownership: http://yhoo.it/1hVySMP When they buy an illiquid micro-cap they don't quibble over share price like we do; they drive it up quickly in sopping up shares. Some will own Axion as a growth play but it will also be attractive as a hedge. That is, if you own LAB or Lithium production then by owning PbC too no worries if PbC starts gobbling market share.

    So I do believe at some point we'll see action in AXPW not too unlike PLUG's run. I just think a big run up of hundreds of percent is unlikely without the news we've been waiting years for -- some sustainable PbC sales.

    It won't take much water on the parched lips of Axion investors to get them excited. In a sense the years of sales drought is a twisted blessing. It has got the market cap down to an extremely pessimistic place when we all know the PbC has developed into an extremely promising technology. We also can fairly assume that the chief objection to PbC -- high cost -- will come down dramatically with scale and manufacturing experience. Last time I checked coconut waste wasn't too pricey.

    While we continually split hairs over the details, in the broad view from 1000 feet the major ducks are lined up perfectly, leading me to make AXPW a close 2nd behind my largest individual stock bet ever.
    Apr 19 01:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    I think that the expectation that ammo-less PIPErs means that the price must take off is flawed. Especially with new financing in Q4 hanging over this stock. The old supply/demand simple explanation of market prices is very comfortable, but it tends to cause complacency in any further thought.

    A good example was a few years ago with the unprecedented massive QE by the Fed. A popular theory said that the massive Fed buying was "artificially" holding Treasury yields down and that an easing or exiting of QE had to mean that yields would rocket (bond prices fall precipitously). That the Treasury market was getting addicted to the money spigot being on full blast and the 'withdrawal' would have catastrophic consequences. Krugman saw differently and it turns out he was right. http://nyti.ms/1eQYmeY

    His argument, which has a lot of merit, is that asset prices are not determined by total supply and demand curves. They are determined at the margins -- the willingness of buyers and sellers at the 'near' price to place a bid or ask. Any potentially willing buyers or sellers at a far price is irrelevant. Total demand and total supply in existence are not relevant; only totals near the current price are, 'active' supply and demand if you will. Thus asset pricing (of investments) is unlike commodity pricing of necessities.

    I agree, and as a result I tend to believe that while AXPW probably shouldn't revisit its lows anytime soon, lacking good news I doubt it will spring up in leaps and bounds either.

    The good news however is that good news is getting closer and every day the odds of an announcement go a little higher.
    Apr 18 01:49 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    JP> What's the status of the $1 million borrowed from insiders? Have they been paid in shares now or is that to come still?
    Apr 17 11:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    1:35 remaining until market close today. Volume of 768k with no "late day weakness" yet that would be suggestive of PIPEr selling. This may bode well for the future. Hopefully they are sold out. So I just upped my sell limit and reduced the order size for my trading shares on hopes of .13 having been a bottom and strength ahead.
    Apr 17 02:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 323: Apr. 14 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    "FWIW, today's FINRA short sales were 44.15% of total volume, which is exactly what I'd expect from three PIPErs who each wanted to sell 15% of daily volume. "

    Could be PIPErs chasing themselves down and getting into a little frenzy today. Could also be some shareholders selling to raise cash to cover their April 15th income tax due. For many, yesterday they had to pay 2013 tax due plus a Q1 2014 estimated tax payment. With stocks having such a banner 2013, capital gains 2013 tax could have loomed larger than expected, especially for anyone getting pushed up in income to where the AMT kicks in.

    If I were surprised by a big tax due yesterday and had to raise cash quickly to cover it I might sell my most speculative position, i.e. 'that crazy penny stock'. That one that can't seem to sell any batteries.

    To put the day into perspective, if today's VWAP were say $.14, the 1379k of volume would represent only $193,000. It felt like a mass exodus the way the price dropped but the 1379k was only two thirds of 1 percent of Axion's outstanding shares trading hands today. If a lot of those were PIPEnd or cash-for-taxes sells, I'd conclude it was a buying opportunity.
    Apr 16 07:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 323: Apr. 14 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    "I'd also be very shocked if LAB's w/ carbon added to the NAM are what is utilized on the Kia application when they launch. I'd be very surprised."

    indie> Does this mean you think the odds of PbC in the Kia are better than even? If so is there data behind carbon additive or Ultrabattery that lead you to such conclusion?

    In a general way I believe LAB+carbon additive would be a false economy for a demanding PSoC application such as a BSG but I cannot say I understand enough to put odds on Kia's using LAB+C versus PbC. Any meat on this bone you have me gnawing would be illuminatingly helpful.

    I do believe that if Kia has decided on PbC they haven't told Axion yet. If they had inked a contract with Axion I'm sure there would have been a much more upbeat feel to the last cc, even with an NDA.
    Apr 16 07:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 323: Apr. 14 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    AXPW traded in a large range today -- .13 to .155. Heavy selling of large orders has dominated the afternoon, down to .133 now (with 20 minutes to go). This could be a last hurrah of the PIPErs.

    So I'm just doing a survey of the buyers. If you bought shares today 4/16 please click "Like". If you did not buy today please abstain. I bought so we can add 1 to the Likes total.
    Apr 16 03:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 320: Apr. 02 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    " ... a buying opportunity at least 10 or 15 percent lower than the .1797 closing is likely later in April. "

    For better or worse, said buying opportunity has come to pass. I bought some today and then watched in awe as the opportunity quickly arose to buy a further 8-10% lower. Wish I could pick bottoms with greater accuracy!
    Apr 15 03:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Investor> Incredibly patronizing and dead wrong about me. I'm incredulous all that you would infer from a couple of my personal choices and even more incredulous that would choose to publicly insult me based on that ignorance.

    The experience of bicycling with a helmet is not quite the same. I like the freedom. I also utilize sidewalks heavily and bike/ped paths. My routes I can avoid highways. I don't take untoward risks and a lifetime of biking without incident is my proof in the pudding.

    If you want to be utterly logical about it then you should cast off the cheap bike helmet which is nothing but a bit of styrofoam and bicycle with a motorcycle helmet to get some real protection. That would be a safety "advance" as you put it of orders of magnitude better protection. You could wear full leathers on your bicycle too. How 'bout that Mr. Logical?

    As for sunscreen, if you lack any intuition regarding your own genetic strengths and weaknesses there's really nothing I can say. Some of us do have good instincts.
    Apr 14 10:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    "before the dawn of political correctness, bicycle helmets and sun screen."

    This strikes a chord. I still can't bring myself to wear a bike helmet as I grew up before they existed. We tore up the streets on our bikes every day after school. Today I still bike all the time, day and night, 4 seasons in Wisconsin. The helmet just collects dust.

    Oddly though I'll wear my motorcycle helmet to take the scooter out for 1 mile and that's with no helmet law.

    "Savage times" is definitely a chuckle HTL. The days when "Children are to be seen and not heard" ruled instead of constant coddling and attention. And God forbid that many evenings were actually not taken up with chauffeuring us to every conceivable extracurricular activity. Parents' needs were considered on par if not greater than childrens'.

    As for sun screen, nah I never use it either. I suppose technically I'm at risk but somehow I just know that skin cancer is not a particular weakness that runs in my genes. The best defense against disease is plenty of minerals and vitamins from diet.
    Apr 14 10:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    iindy> If you mean a plug-in refresh option yes maybe that would make sense. I am very hopeful that it wouldn't be necessary as a normal maintenance measure.

    IIRC on the test trip to Iowa and back the PbC batteries were every bit as charged upon return as when they left. A thousand miles or something. OTOH when they tried test runs with LAB, the batteries were in bad shape quickly and needed lengthy plug in charging after just hours of duty on the road.
    Apr 12 09:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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