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Retired Aviator

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  • There Is No Recovery! [View article]
    Coins> You have a rare talent for being basically 180 degrees away from the truth on pretty much everything you say. It's stunning, really.

    I think your strategy of eschewing productive equity investments due to their fiat nature to buy gold will continue to hurt your net worth for a long time. You think it's low risk but it's actually very high risk due to gold still being inflated and due to correct. When gold goes into a serious secular bear market it tends to stay there for many years as industrial demand surges cannot bail it out like with other commodities.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Recovery! [View article]
    Krugman advocates for huge stimulus, not QE. Stimulus can take existing money and create growth by just moving it faster. No printing necessary. I can't remember Krugman ever advocating for money printing as policy in itself, e.g. the 'helicopter effect.' He wants infrastructure spending and putting laid off teachers back to work.

    The faster velocity also generates more taxes as it amounts to necessarily more income to tax.

    He's right of course. More money movement equals more income and more goods and services and more tax receipts to fund the stimulus, in circular fashion.
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Recovery! [View article]
    "There were people back in 2009 who where predicting that all that money printing wouldn't be inflationary and the large public sector deficit wouldn't raise interest rates, nor collapse the dollar."

    I was one, but I sure felt alone at the time. For example when Bowles-Simpson later came out as a reaction to the trillion dollar deficits I wrote an SA article saying that the deficits would not spiral but would rein themselves in with no cutting (since revenues would jump). The article was met with disbelief I would even suggest such a thing; jeered by some readers and supported by no one.

    In 2009 the most visible pundits (television) and basically every politician during interview or debate either argued that "austerity immediately" was the most important policy, or to kick the can down the road and "austerity later" was the way to go. But everyone I saw interviewed except Krugman was saying government spending badly needed slashing at some point, and that inflation was a primary danger.

    Can you point to some non Krugman articles from 2009 that support your quote above?
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For $20 A Barrel Oil [View article]
    What this article missed on the supply side is that much of the US shale oil drops off in oil production rapidly. In other words, producers don't have to trim the spigot as wells will necessarily reduce their oil ouput on their own.

    The boom started in 2011 so 2015 should mean a lot of wells 'maturing' to where they produce less liquids and more natural gas. Wells that produce both oil & gas tend to start out with the gas pressure lifting the liquids and then later as the natural lifting power fades they produce gas only.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    Thanks Rugged. Utilities finally starting to get a clue. Bureaucrats.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    ngs> Very interesting. I've always regarded your views highly. I too am looking at rental property as the surest option now with other asset prices being what they are -- I put in an offer on a foreclosure last week but alas did not get it. In my area there are great deals to be had in terms of cash flow to purchase price. Gotta be willing to be a landlord though.

    I still have most of my long term retirement money in stocks as I've got 20 years to let it grow. Be foolish with that horizon to try to time the market with every penny. I did take some off the table in June thinking summer/fall would bring a correction and reentry point. Wrong, but I did take a slightly better reentry point in commodity stocks and a much better in oil stocks in particular. Now commodities are down further, so those positions are underwater and I'm quite strapped for cash. From feast to famine in 4 months. I may have to sell some ePower shares next year as one of the few bright spots in my non IRA portfolio that is sitting on nice gains rather than red. There is no market though; if anybody is interested let me know by PM. I won't sell any shares before February though and only if cash is not forthcoming from elsewhere.

    I'm convinced that the Saudi no-production-cuts news is very oversold and at some point the price of oil will recover sharply so that's the easy money opportunity I see presently. Any thoughts on that? Anybody know a good focused yet diversified vehicle to play an oil bounce? There are a bunch of oil ETFs but maybe there is one that is more compelling than others.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    ... gleaning Ed Buiel's comments ... here are all of Ed Buiel's posts on the yahoo AXPW board. Some good stuff in there that coming from the CTO had assured me that I was right about the PbC being special. So I bookmarked this way back.
    Dec 17, 2014. 05:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    "more advanced" in sales only.
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks [View article]
    American Express which is AXP not AMX is still a major holding of Berkshire today 50 years later so it is totally in line with Buffett's philosophy -- his favorite holding period being "forever".

    The salad oil scandal was a one time one customer event. It was a case of a big headline causing an irrational market buying opportunity. Not comparable to oil stocks today as this is far less predictable. The value of oil E&P's today is not knowable like AXP's value was, more or less.

    Oil company stocks should be valued on future production revenues less costs but with nobody knowing the future prices they will get for their oil it is much dicier than AXP was. That said, Buffett did take a large position in XOM, I would guess because he likes their reserves and attractive cost to produce.
    Dec 14, 2014. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The End Of The 'Shale Oil Bubble?' Or The Beginning? [View article]
    "I don't think the question is "if". The question is "when" will crude prices rise."

    In the long run this has to be correct. That means an oil producer, whether a country or a company, has a strategic decision to make during low oil prices: either, (a) hold or increase production to keep the cash flow coming if net positive (regardless of accounting profitability) or, (b) curtail production to leave reserves in the ground in order to sell it later at much higher prices. Human nature being what it is most executives will probably choose (a).

    But the lower the price goes, the more (b) will makes sense for those producers who can afford to wait it out. So there will be for this and other reasons a strong support level somewhere and the price will bounce back hard at some point. What point is the big question.

    As an aside, IMO Charlie Munger was right when years ago he said that domestic oil should be treasured and left in the ground for distant future generations when oil will be far scarcer and more valuable. Better for the long term to use foreign oil now. The shale oil boom is really a squandering of the future so while it feels painful now this correction is probably good for the country long term.
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    naked> Because for one thing most of the report would be irrelevant to the niche where PbC would fill a need.

    I'm not interested in JCI. I'm interested in matching PbC to one sliver of automotive where it fits, whether with JCI or any of a number of potential acquirers.
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    FWIW diesel hasn't fallen much. National average is now $3.53/gallon.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Mr. I> Spare us your patronizing tone and nonsense drivel. I am talking about a completely different issue which is that you continue to drop strong innuendos that you just /know/ the end game. But you've never taken even a small position on the short side, not at $4 or $3 or at any point in the financing news cycle.

    There's a high probability that this ends disastrously for shareholders but it's not certain. Not even close. Every time you imply that it is certain I want to vomit at your arrogance, especially in light of the fact that you've failed to ever put a single dollar of your money with your mouth (on the short side).

    Ok, I'm done ranting now. You can have the last shot if you like as I'm going to discipline myself to not reply lest I become the one getting on people's nerves.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Mr. I> I have gotten over any pain of seeing my shares drop. I barely even check to see where it's trading most days. I'm not taking any losses unless one day it is zero. If I end up with a total loss so be it.

    I fail to see any emotionality in my analysis, but I am getting increasingly annoyed by your self congratulatory air of certitude of the future.

    Your not shorting penny stocks 'rule' is just an excuse. Truth is after the split it was /not/ a penny stock. It traded at $4.50, then in the $3's for a while, once on NASDAQ in the $2's and now a buck and change. If you truly had the foresight as to the end game that you are ever implying, you would have shorted at $4 with your 'certitude' of knowing it was going down.

    It wasn't a penny stock at 3 or 4 bucks and you knew for certain that a NASDAQ listing and ugly financing was just around the corner. Even then you took no action. Because you didn't know what would happen any more than the rest of us and you still don't.

    Nobody here needs somebody to extrapolate the past for them. It's easy enough to see the current trajectory. Question is does something come along and change it.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:01 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    "shorting any penny stock is too risky even for me"

    In other words you're not sure what the stock price is going to do, exactly as I said.

    Yet at least half of your APC comments take an undertone that you *are* sure that 'this sucker is going down'. Frankly I'm getting sick of it. Anybody can see the looming risks and that something needs to change the current trajectory before Axion's cash runs out. We don't need reminders of that trajectory and your continual beating that horse strikes me as more than a little self congratulatory that you've apparently had the end game all figured out for some time. Yet you won't short the stock so you don't.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:01 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment