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  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Don't forget the wild card potential. That is why I am a shareholder and bought more today. LCB was a wild card that came completely out of nowhere in June. Not even in anybody's wildest fantasies, yet it happened.

    Axion has been planting seeds for years and so far only a few withered fruits have formed but IMO the PbC seed is good and it is only a matter of time before PbC generates significant commercial interest and ultimately sales. While the risk of 99% loss from here is quite real, so is the potential for 1000% plus gain. I like the asymmetry.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    ePower issues regular updates to shareholders without public announcements. ePower in fact sent out an update today. I actually like the insular communications as APC and yahoo have proven that too much public information, commenting, and troll misinformation can actually impact a company's efforts negatively.

    Perhaps John will again update his instablog with copy and paste of the latest from ePower? I don't want to step on copyright toes by doing that myself. OTOH John is likely so sick of the incessant abuse that he takes here that he may no longer care to provide new information. I wouldn't blame him as there as those who will take whatever he says and automatically turn it around to make him into their punching bag.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    nbtf> You still apparently do not get it that Gesang is NOT purchasing any common stock per the LOI. He is lending to Axion per the Note and purchasing Preferred stock. To be clear, once again, Preferred and Common are totally different things: think of one as say horses and the other as dogs. Now do you get it??

    The term that allows conversion of the Note and the Preferred into Common in the future makes those securities to have warrant-like provisions. Warrants are simply options issued by the company. The "strike" price of such warrants need not be anywhere near the current market price so your argument rings completely hollow. Heck, right now Axion has publicly traded warrants to purchase 1 Common share at an incredible $17.50 and the market deems those to be valuable. So your idea that Gesang with his convertability at around $1.50/share isn't a valuable term is absurd. The LOI terms already baked in that number based on a formula based on market just prior to the LOI announcement.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Haha, such a great example of just how much pessimism is burned into your DNA. You truly have soot colored glasses when it comes to all things related to Axion.

    What you call "collapsing" according to your own linked article is actually a 3% auto sales growth projection. It is way down from 2014's growth but it is still *growth*, not "collapsing" as you say. GM is definitely a buy right now at $28.
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    EM> As I said, the mere fact that Gesang is spending all this time and effort negotiating with Axion for months in a hugely complicated multi part agreement is all you need to know. BTW when he told Al at the annual meeting that the Axion deal is small potatoes for him that smelled of b.s. Maybe in the sense that when he worked for GM/Delphi he was working with larger sums as part of those organizations but for LCB or his other PE partnership ("Orpheus?") I don't believe for a second that he's doing deals routinely that dwarf the Axion deal. I think it's a very big deal for him, pun intended.

    P.S. Nobody "avoids the use of relative words" in description. I'm sure if I mined your comment history I could come up with dozens of examples. :)
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    EM> The mere fact that LCB is interested in PbC to the point of spending a ton of time and money drafting the agreements is enough to say they are very interested in the IP. Other than IP, what does Axion possess? Nothing really.

    Obviously LCB sees a lot of value in PbC or they wouldn't pursue it. They did "extensive" market research in China and concluded that PbC was the solution they wanted to go with, or at least one solution. Even in the most pessimistic scenario where LCB would be nefariously planning to default from the get go, they still do want PbC technology. There is no other possibility than that LCB sees a lot of value in PbC and believes they can sell the batteries. It's not been often at Axion's many fateful crossroads that clearly only one possibility existed.
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Killa> Is your position that PbC is not a good and competitive solution for any application and thus the reason for the NDAs is to get customers to swear silence so they don't "spill the beans" that it's no good?
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    EM> No worries. Guess I took it the wrong way.

    I do not begin to understand the technical details of PbC or its manufacture or any other battery for that matter. I have merely concluded from all I've read that Axion has significant patent protection around PbC and also significant proprietary know how; call it "secret sauce". It would be great if I had the technical expertise to be more specific but I do not.

    It's a hunch and I could be wrong. Perhaps their patents are worthless and the PbC is easily reverse engineered in no time at all. But clearly Gesang thinks Axion's IP has a lot of value.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    It's ironic when GA abhors "baby talk". Edmund is actually the one pioneering the "baby talk" here by coining that very phrase. :) Spare us the unproductive condescension. What I said were merely generalizations, generalizations being what every human being uses at various tmes for the sake of brevity.

    I have no expertise in battery materials, chemistry or construction. I stated that I believe that Axion's PbC *may* be difficult and resource consuming to reverse engineer. I'll continue to believe it likely until I see evidence to the contrary. Why I am attacked and ridiculed for expressing my own mere belief that something is likely suggests that common decency is at this time lacking here.
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    markmang> That's for your expertise. I have none really but I do believe that it took years of development work to get the PbC to perform as well as it does. The theory behind the negative electrode IMO was pretty simple, getting it to work in practice another story.

    Also, manufacturing efficiency is a big factor. Somebody reverse engineering the carbon sheeting, for example, might figure out exactly what it is but be perplexed on how it was fabricated. It must be done reasonably efficiently and economically. That could take a lot of time to figure out. Any wrong turns could be very costly. So while reverse engineering of the PbC is surely doable and perhaps inevitable, it may take years and many millions of dollars of trial and error.

    That is my theory behind "secret sauce"; basically that it is worth a lot of time and money to have Axion lend a helping hand setting up a manufacturing line vs trying to reverse engineer the PbC. The other evidence of a valuable "secret sauce" is that during at least one past annual meeting that involved a tour of plant it was noted that very few employees had access to certain of Axion's trade secrets and they did not include at least some executives and directors. Clearly Axion has tried to keep a very tight lid on certain proprietary methods, i.e. "secret sauce" if you will. I am not qualified to say how valuable is the sauce or how difficult it is to replicate PbC, but FWIW I believe it is likely formidable.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Rick> You and I agree for a change and my biggest worry is that Gesang might be just playing Axion without intending to go through with it. However I'm sure he got a hold of PbCs long before this batch of 100 so reverse engineering in China has been possible for a long time IMO. OTOH he could have realized it would be a long road of trial and error so much faster and easier to just negotiate with Axion for the secret sauce.

    Still, if his intent is bad, would it be worth it to get the secret sauce and rights to 4 Chinese patents (nobody seems to know what these patents are specifically) but risk expensive litigation while losing out on everything but China? IOW is Axion worth more to him alive or dead? If it dies somebody with deep pockets could buy or outbid him on Axion's IP, assuming liquidation, and with patents in hand litigate the hell out of LCB causing great expense and even cease and desist. So maybe it's better to partner with Axion legit, which also means getting their tech support to boot. Plus as an equity partner all the royalties LCB ever pays to Axion it is largely paying to itself while enabling LCB to benefit from PbC sales globally.

    Considering the risks and difficulties in getting the manufacturing set up it seems to me that LCB may be better off owning a chunk of Axion going forward than trying to go it alone. It would have to share, but a global pie is way bigger than just China.
    Aug 24, 2015. 05:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Ranma> I agree that the LCB deal is much more likely than not to go through. Both parties really want it and have expended massive amounts of time on it as the deal is insanely complicated with its many parts. Backing out doesn't seem at all likely. But until the deed is done and the checks start flowing from LCB to Axion IMO you have to allow for the possibility of cold feet.

    The wild card that I like is that Gesang's interest at all in PbC cannot be a fluke. As an electrical engineer by training he is seeing something very valuable in Axion's IP. He can't be the only one out there seeing what the battery can do. More interested customers and/or partners will emerge seemingly out of nowhere (as all of them have in the past -- NS, BMW, ePower, Navy, Bysolar, ). The fun part will be when a critical mass of good news starts to build up and reverse the market sentiment. I'm not banking on the old market cap of $100 million returning but I wouldn't take it off the table either.
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thing to remember about AXPW now is that unlike pre split when there were up to 94M shares out, there are now just 3.5M. The supply just doesn't currently exist for the kind of dumping to get the price to repeat what happened six months ago. As shares at these levels move from weak hands to strong (longer term) they effectively reduce the float. (Not technically but for all intents and purposes they are off market.) So sorry Freya but you won't be getting anywhere near your $.10 buy target, barring terrible news like bankruptcy filing or something else big.

    This post is probably as strong as I go on predicting things but I do feel pretty confident. At 3.5M shares out, even $.25 would be a company valuation of under a million dollars which seems awfully unlikely unless the Gesang deal falls through since that deal is slated to bring in multi million revenues.
    Aug 24, 2015. 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 402: August 1, 2015 [View instapost]
    virtual> I don't have any answers. I just recall that long ago JP and others who knew more than me about PbC emphasized that it is not a drop in replacement for any application that currently uses LAB. But I don't recall exactly why not.

    If you discover PbC is a good drop in for existing non hybrid autos, then with the ability for deep discharge without being damaged I'd say that Axion colossally missed the boat in not simply marketing PbC as a car battery that can take abuse and last a long time without annoying maintenance. As an owner of just 3 motor vehicles one of the maintenance hassles is making sure I don't let them sit undriven for long as any voltage drop starts to encourage sulfation which can wreck a battery over a single winter of non use.
    Aug 22, 2015. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    It's a buying opportunity. P/E's are reasonable and remember that earnings growth has been robust despite coming from a weak economic recovery since the Great Recession. Just think what earnings will do when growth actually picks up. Sooner or later it will (no predictions other than that).

    My brother dumped his stock funds as the Dow was plummeting in 2008. Sold at around Dow 8000 IIRC. I pleaded with him to buy not sell but he wouldn't listen. I explained that given even weak growth with positive inflation and a bit of corporate leverage as slight tailwinds, that over the 35 years he had before retirement stocks simply had to move much much higher and grow their dividends too.

    I told him the question then would be whether the Dow would be closer to 50,000 or 100,000 with his foolish sale at 8,000 but a distant memory. I stand by that crude prediction of closer to 50k Dow or even 100k than 20k.

    Timing to get out before dips and then back in may work a few times but if you miss a big run up you may never get back in.

    All the negativity is actually a buyer's friend. Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment