Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Retired Aviator  

View Retired Aviator's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Axion Power Concentrator 396: Apr. 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Lack thereof, agreed. Let me clarify. Last September the shares traded at 9 cents pre split or $4.50 post split. Company performance has been lousy since, but not lousy enough to rationally turn $4.50 into $.04. The B game did that.
    Apr 18, 2015. 01:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 396: Apr. 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    isthis> The claim made was that Farley's letter requesting restraint would actually result in mass exodus, so the relevant figure is the ~800k unconverted B's existing when the letter and announcement of being within 5% of limit were issued. The 2.1M original B's aren't relevant.

    Yes there's been a stampede that had its initial seed when the B terms first came to light in October, but that's a different story. When a stampede gains enough momentum it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy because you cannot win going against it, except in a lucky short term trade. Once you take the path of going along with the stampede you just make it worse.

    I myself recognized when the B window opened on Feb 23rd that share proliferation was going to destroy the price, so with some sorrow I sold my core position I had built over 1.5 years for $.43. In that moment I became part of the problem, but I wasn't about to martyr myself for no purpose in a practically hopeless situation.

    Therein lies the problem: I felt the shares were grossly undervalued upon the IPO at $2.00, so I bought some then. That feeling never changed. But tricksters created a game afoot where even though I was sure $2.00 was too low to sell, I felt I had no choice but to sell for $.43. It's like an altered state of reality. Fear, plain and simple. They made a new game of investing with their own rules where you're either with them in destroying the share price or you get destroyed. Company performance hardly matters.
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    figure of speech
    Even Axion who invented it refers to it as a battery sometimes.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 396: Apr. 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Of the 840k B's reported as of April 14, by my calculation @150 shares per B the additional 25M newest shares represents about 160k of B's converting. Some of those would be converted April 15 before the letter was posted after hours, so maybe 120k was the "rush" to get out bringing the total within 5% of 100M. That means that about 720k of B holders did not immediately "rush for the exits". Logically then the "rush" did not prevail but the "restraint" prevailed in a big way, in fact by as much as 6 to 1. (720k vs 120k)

    But hey, some people will paint every single thing Axion as black as possible, and then be sure to pat themselves on the back about it.
    Apr 17, 2015. 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 396: Apr. 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    IIRC management and directors are indemnified from managing badly and squandering shareholders assets foolishly (like shares). They are only obligated to act to the best of their ability, however low. But certain exceptions apply:

    cronyism, related party transactions
    illegal activities
    lies and intentional misinformation
    certain actions or failures to act that are deemed gross negligence

    I think that failure to call a timely meeting to vote to increase auth shares (or R/S with same effect) could be such negligence under these circumstances and open them up to personal liability rather than corporate liability for shareholders' grievance. In fact I left a voicemail for Trego a couple weeks ago asking why they hadn't announced a vote to increase the auth shares and pointing out their personal liability. Perhaps that got their attention and prompted Farley's letter or perhaps they would have done so anyway.

    Still, the delay of at least 2 weeks seems like one more blunder. Now conversions are already halted and 10 days notice is required for a shareholder's meeting and vote. Sheesh.
    Apr 17, 2015. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Bob> I just assumed mostly hedge funds sit opposite the Maxim table from tiny struggling companies strapped for cash. From our perspective I'm not sure the classification matters, though in future financings I'd be very wary of any investors that call themselves hedge funds as they can be incredibly devious as we have seen. Not investors at all in any normal sense of the word.
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    "The motivation for the B's to drive the price down to this .03-.05 level was not all that great UNLESS as you say they can exercise @ $0.03 and sell @ >$0.05."

    Bob> Yes in a sense. Perhaps they don't have a particular price target. But the evidence says that the hedge funds dumped their shares and A's from the IPO quickly, recouping the lion's share of their $3.25. Those proceeds could then be redeployed immediately which is a compelling plus for a hedge fund. Holding only B's then, the incentive is to move the price toward zero, from $2 or whatever.

    You're right it's not essential for them to get it to a certain price to maximize profit. Converting at $.30 and selling at $.50 is equally profitable as converting at $.03 and selling at $.05. But I think the odds favor the latter happening as traders psychologically will pop their bids from 3 cents to 5 cents much easier. That we never got such a daily share or dollar volume explosion until we got under a nickel supports that theory.
    Apr 16, 2015. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    jpau> No, because the really lucrative game was to play the B warrants to death spiral. That's because the shares and A's were dumped post IPO (which the chart and lack of 13G filings for over 5% ownership supports). That alone nearly recouped all their principal and then the B's were practically free. Recall that even a Maxim broker or two spilled the beans and said to dump the shares and A's while holding the B's. This selling pressure killed the price pretty soundly as well as any positive hopes from the IPO, which set up the mood for death spiral.

    Once the shares and A's had been dumped by the gamers, killing the price further brought enormous benefit to them while even a huge price increase would only bring a moderate benefit to them. Cashless and multiples.

    They definitely wanted the death spiral. They mint money like crazy when VWAPs are 3 cents and the price spikes to 5 cents on high volume as it has recently.
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    ngs> So you think. If I predict rain next October 12th, and that day it rains, it doesn't mean I was right.

    Your position has always been that death spiral had a 100% chance of success. I know that is wrong. We can only guess at the chance but it sure wasn't 100%. Things could have intervened.
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    indy> Semi-agree. Selling a new battery concept to OEMs to re-engineer their products is nothing like selling hamburgers though. Impossible to say from the outside what progress has been made, but the stock price damage has no doubt infected the business prospects.
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Amouna> Agreed that the insistence on NASDAQ was a friggin set up by Wall Street sharks. Shorting ease plus liquidity.

    I was saying pre IPO that they shouldn't have gone to Wall Street for $ but main street and should have just stayed on OTC. This whole debacle says my instincts were very right.

    indy> If Axion had delivered nothing of value then we wouldn't be here and APC wouldn't exist, let alone be the #2 blog on SA.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    ngs> No the writing was not clear in October. You will recall one of the last minute changes the B gamers made was to shorten the pre B day period from 9 months to 121 days or 4 months. My take on this is that they eyeballed the size of the $6M deal ($12M originally) and felt that it did not provide enough "ammo". What I mean by "ammo" is shares that would be sold regardless of price falls, i.e. shares automatically sold post IPO plus shares in savvy hands who understood the potential for devastation growing with a falling price. Capitulators rather than the buy and hold crowd.

    Basically, if the share price held up around $2.00 or so there was no worry of terrible dilution. But if it got low enough it would surely be sucked into the black hole gravitational pull of zero once the games began, due to multiple shares per B. NOT a certainty back in October though.

    So what could buoy the share price, the gamers worst fear? 1. Anything like very good news bringing in buyers. 2. Running out of ammo well before the B conversion period, in which case the shares might have run back up upon good news. So they shortened the period from 9 to 4 months based on their estimate of the amount of "ammo". It was no random change but a very critical piece of the game, because the black hole scenario we got was NOT assured. The game only worked because there was sufficient dumping and shorting pre conversion to get near enough to the gravitational pull.

    Given that the gamers could expect to double or triple their money easily if the game worked, but be stuck with illiquid equity in a battery they didn't understand if the game didn't work, throwing a hundred grand at some paid trolls would be some very cheap insurance.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    He could have been strongly nudged to resign. Never read an SEC filing yet that said an executive was fired, or one that said s/he stepped down due to "being sick of this bullshit". LOL, plenty of that at Axion no doubt, starting with Buiel in 2010.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Amouna> I still disagree and so does the person who knows the PbC better than anybody else, Dr. Buiel.

    My position as I said is based on my own understanding of the advantages of supercaps and the particular advantages of AC negative electrodes, which Axion has developed alone. Not so much second hand claims.

    Third party evidence however is mixed; 1. Norfolk endorses PbC wholeheartedly and VW here confirms this. I believe VW is not a pumper as he generally is no Axion cheerleader for sure. 2. I believe the ePower PbC anecdotal reports, but if someone wants to discount that as a conflict of interest that's fine. 3. Lack of Power Cube sales is simply a big mystery to me: is it just glacial pace or "No"? Is it herd mentality where no utility wants to be first? Is it that with the death spirals (two) that they are afraid to bite due to warranty/going concern, or battery replacement fears? Are there many bureaucrats who simply side with Goliath every time and never David? OTOH Bysolar did give PbC a strong endorsement publicly, and Keares. PEV did take it on. Was the Cube payback calculation from TG a lie or just padded? I still believe the numbers for a well located Cube in FR should be good to excellent. And solar/wind storage is growing fast and PbC fits well. Buiel sees the value and nobody knows better. Yet almost no takers to date. I call that mixed evidence. 4. Auto s/s was always a hope but PbC is not a clear winner for that. Requires a second battery and high up front cost; supply chain concerns. Disappointment here does not mean the PbC doesn't work as claimed. 5. Other apps: Axion's damn fault for failure to sell direct to end users ANYTHING.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:17 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    baz> I am confident that the B gamers hired pervasive negative commentary even here on APC to talk the stock down post IPO, deep into rich B conversion territory, and destroy the old holders.

    Terrorizing longs combined with dumping all their shares from the IPO worked; seems nearly every fan of PbC here capitulated and sold his shares, driving the price even lower in the process. Think about it; even raving fans sold out. Exactly what they wanted.

    Now with 150M shares or more out soon the 7.1M out from the IPO are trivialized; 100% interest is now down to probably under 4% with zero cash from issuing all the new shares. Great job Trego.
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:39 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment