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  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    IIRC FB popped nicely on IPO day then fell later?
    Oct 30 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 377 Oct. 30 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    HTL> The clause changes the impact of the B warrants from being almost certainly trivial to hypothetically speaking being so powerful as to virtually obliterate non-B shareholders. It all depends on the stock price 9-15 months from now.

    NGS did a spreadsheet of hypothetical scenarios. At a stock price of a penny we would all be wiped out. I posted that I don't think market butchers could or would want to get it anywhere near that low.

    For example, suppose shorts drove it to say 25 cents to try to transfer maximum equity from shareholders to B warrant holders. That would be risky as hell to sell short at 25 cents ($1.7 million company valuation!) because a strong sale announcement could rocket the stock to over $2.00 in one day, easily. Maybe much higher because with a 50% plus short interest a short squeeze would be extreme, piled on top of new longs coming in due to an OEM win or other positive catalyst.

    So while the pennies scenario in 9-15 months I am sure is not credible I guesstimated that a pessimistic low would be "closer to $1.00 than a penny." Hopefully we won't find out and we're near the low now.

    Makes me sick how this one paragraph has turned the stock into something other than an investment in PbC technology. The stock held by legacy owners who in some cases have followed this company nearly a decade has now been transformed into a speculative instrument that's value depends wholly on the market price for it at the arbitrary time range of T+9 to T+15. And that market price is subject to manipulation. That's what you own now; a speculative option thanks to those scheming bastards.
    Oct 30 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 377 Oct. 30 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    It behooves us all to not let shorts commandeer the stock. There's a ton riding on this.

    My understanding is that shareholders can contact their broker to mark their shares as not borrowable. Shares must be borrowed to be shorted, so if we all contact every brokerage where we hold shares to put our shares off limits from borrowing we may be able to hamper short selling.

    Please let's all make a phone call or send an email to customer service and do this! Then follow up a couple days later to make sure your shares are marked off limits.
    Oct 30 08:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    "the antidilution B warrant clause got slipped in 11th hour as a matter of pure trickery"

    I went back and doublechecked the S-1's filed with the SEC. The version on 10/22 was the first iteration to have the antidilutive paragraph for the B warrants, LESS THAN 48 HOURS before the offering went off. The last prior version from 10/6 and presumably all earlier versions did not contain that killer paragraph that radically changes everything.

    Before yesterday I was confident in my huge overweight investment. Since alsobird pointed out that nasty paragraph that got slipped in 11th hour now I have to wonder how bad dilution will ultimately be. Impossible to say. Before that paragraph I knew exactly what the B dilution would look like should the shares be below $3.25 for 15 months. And if they stayed above $3.25 there was no need for concern as my investment was doing alright.

    *****************

    No question was the sneaky insertion of that paragraph on 10/22 for the 10/24 offering a deliberate act of last minute trickery for the purpose of wresting large amounts of equity from shareholders. Only time will tell how large.

    With luck good news will buoy the stock between 9 and 15 months so the problem will be modest but who knows.

    No question is the paragraph the reason the shares have tanked so badly since opening on Friday at $3.00 to close at $1.94 today, a loss of 35% in 4 days! /Another/ 35% I should say after the other steep losses leading up to the reverse split and anticipating another financing.

    Right now we're at under 4 cents on a pre split basis! With the wild card B warrants I have absolutely no way of handicapping what the share price /ought/ to be right now. I have an idea about what market cap fully diluted should be but without knowing how this turns out in terms of number of shares to be printed there's no calculating.

    I'm in favor of a bunch of us filing a complaint with the SEC about deceptive practices in slipping in new terms unannounced last minute. Might do no good but it just might focus regulator's attention on this kind of behavior.
    Oct 29 10:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    If somebody sees bids/asks on the B warrants CUSIP in their brokerage please share the info.
    Oct 29 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    "they probably had a gun to their head. "

    What head?

    Apparently the antidilution B warrant clause got slipped in 11th hour as a matter of pure trickery when the B's were changed to $3.25 and 15 months. Not mentioned in the red herring changes was the real pith of this whole deal, that one paragraph.

    Lenny on the phone today admitted as much saying something like "the real value here is in the B warrants". The B's are worth a ton if the shares tank horribly and they're worth a lot if the shares soar.

    They knew exactly what they were doing with that buried clause.
    Oct 29 06:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    "So many great lessons here"

    My enthusiasm for the PbC's prospects has not dimmed but grown ever stronger. The market has been wrong in assigning ever lower market caps from nearly nine figures a few years ago down to barely eight.

    Half the problem was perhaps overly optimistic expectations on sales time frames and some management missteps but IMO the outstanding data coming in on the PbC should more than make up for the delays or marketing errors.

    So why the death spiral? One reason; one huge "lesson". That is: **When executives are offered equity terms that essentially grant immunity from a falling share price to the new investors they must fight it tooth and nail.** These investors are predators who will try their best to kill the share price knowing full well that the more they kill it the more shares they will receive. Now that I've seen what these terms can do to healthy capitalism I think that death spiral antidilution terms should be illegal.

    It takes a lot of gall to sit at the table and expect a guarantee on the backs of legacy owners (who never got such guarantees) that your shares won't lose value in the market; to say that if they do the company has to grant you ever more shares. That's not how equity is supposed to work -- what happened to potential reward commensurate with risk?

    What's most infuriating is that once these predators have their antidilution guarantee they and buzzard traders deliberately crush the price as a way to steal as much of the company as they can from the old guard.

    No, it's really ONE main lesson: That is that before signing on the dotted line management needs counsel experienced in these types of deals negotiating. You'd think drawing mid six figures that CEOs/CFOs should be more savvy but obviously when it comes to financing, Axion's managers and BoD have been rank amateurs all too eager to sign the papers. Twice now, shame on them.
    Oct 29 05:53 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    gg> In 2013 I think it was they drove the sleeper truck from Florence to New Market, Iowa and return trip the next day. They reported solid MPG's (forget exactly), flawless performance of hybrid drivetrain, and impressively that upon return the batteries were in the same full state of charge as at departure. It's a brutal work cycle on the drivetrain and batteries just handing stop and go and elevation changes. It has passed with flying colors.

    At this stage we cannot know long term durability though so just forget it.
    Oct 29 03:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    I got a phone call from Lenny. Obviously Maxim trying to do 'damage control' and sooth subscribers watching their new stock plunge before their eyes. Talked with him almost 25 minutes and that guy is quite a talker. He is slick.

    I kept bringing the subject back to the anti dilution ratchets of these last 2 financings and how draconian they are for wresting equity from legacy shareholders and he kept blaming management for the plunging shares, saying they need to get off their duffs and start producing sales so the stock can go to a fair valuation of around $50M he says. He paints that as a happy land for all interest holders whether old or new. Kind of a carrot he likes to dangle, $50M market cap, sometimes higher. I would not disagree about the company being worth $50M but I blame these financings for it not being so!

    He tried to deflect my complaints about Maxim's terms over to blame Axion management. I said the shares have plunged so badly for 2 years not because of management but because the market is scared to death of share printing due to draconian financing terms. We kind of hit an impasse but I give the guy credit for being quite a salesman. You want to like the guy.

    Interesting developments: The deal terms (both 2013 and 2014) are not dictated by Maxim. They shop the investee's prospects out to their 150 or so institutional investors, of which 25 or so submit term sheets. Maxim he says picks the best terms in the interest of the company, Axion in this case.

    This time we now know that the terms included a Trojan horse B warrant provision. As a result those who decided to make the seemingly innocuous decision to forgo the offering to try to get a little better price in the market for shares and A warrants may be royally screwed. It's not right.

    Another development: There is institutional interest in buying B warrants; the bid level he said is $1.25 to $1.50. A far cry from the 25 cents we all estimated before the Trojan horse was discovered! Of course Lenny pointed out that given that B's current value subscribers are actually ahead of their $3.25 cost for the sum of parts. It's like the whole debacle is planned to keep their clients happy enough to remain clients.

    He says since the B's already have a CUSIP that they want to get them listed on NASDAQ to "stabilize" the market. There are no obstacles as they are registered. I think it may work to stabilize the shares; to get an interplay of market forces going on between the 3 different securities. Anybody have thoughts on that?
    Oct 29 01:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    Mr. I> How is taking the A and B warrants a tell for Maxim's near term stock expectations? At a cost of just a penny per warrant seems they would automatically take them all to sell if nothing else regardless of expectations, no?
    Oct 29 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    Mr I> Do you think a MAXM bid is likelier clients' bidding or MAXM on its own account?
    Oct 29 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    "Only a dolt like Trego has proven himself to be, run circles around by the Pipers, could have approved such a clause…"

    Rugged> I share your extreme disgust over this new development. One little paragraph unearthed by almostbirdman has huge implications for this stock over the next year. In fact, as the shares today trade below $2 for the first time, I feel certain that without that one buried paragraph they would now be closer to $3 than $2!

    What aches the most is knowing that shrewd negotiating I am certain could have eased shareholders' pain tremendously. Just think what a difference it would make if instead of 125% of [3250/(.85xP)-1000] we had management covering our backs by insisting on 80% of [3250/(.85xP)-1250] or some such.

    Maxim = devilish indeed. They are two faced hyenas.
    Oct 29 11:09 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    "So anyone who sold the package to keep the B warrants has every incentive to short this all the way down to a penny."

    It won't go anywhere near that low in the B's time frame. With 6.8 million shares out, at even $.50 the company would be valued at just $3.4 million so the temptation for buyers especially deep pocketed strategic ones would put a most pessimistic floor closer to $1.00 IMO. There are many people representing big money in aggregate out there interested in energy storage who are watching this tech and this stock just waiting for a sign the train will leave the station. The cheaper the company gets the more shares every $1000 buys, sopping up shorted shares ever faster.

    Second, while it's true that a B holder who owns no shares gets "full ratchet" antidilution protection, i.e. cannot be hurt by a falling price and can benefit from a falling price to effectively wrest more equity away from non B equity holders, "shorting" it becomes an extremely dangerous game the lower the price. At below $1 ($6.8 million cap) shorting it means the proceeds become paltry and upside risk looms very large indeed, like bankruptcy large for the trader. The amount of shorting it would take to get it well below $1 and keep it there for months would put the shorts in an extremely precarious potential squeeze situation. Short interest probably 50-75% range. They'd have to beat down all the new longs every day (truckers discovering ePower, industry types seeing the writing regarding lead-carbon tech, etc).

    This company has partnered with major OEMs in secret testing programs. If just one announces PbC adoption for a single hybrid model the stock price from current levels could multiply in a single day on the news and never look back. We saw a hint of what can happen to this stock when Kia announced a "lead carbon" win for the 48V Soul even though it turned out it was not Axion's. Just think if Axion had been named in that release.

    A company with a breakthrough product going from basically zero revenues into the spotlight in a single news release is not a wise short. A company possessing a tech worth $100 million selling for $15 million is like a compressed spring. At $5 million (74 cents) I can only imagine. A penny in 15 months? No way.

    B holders would be a lot smarter to just sit on the B's which pay off in virtually all scenarios rather than to get greedy and expose themselves (by trying to manipulate the price to oblivion) to a risk that could wipe them out.
    Oct 29 10:32 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    Ad van> Let me guess, you are short and trolling here because you fear a squeeze, thinking maybe you can scare us to not buy?

    This blog is for people interested in investing in a particular company with a particular technology. If you have no actual knowledge of such, nor interest in such, then go away.
    Oct 29 09:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 376 Oct. 26 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    APH> Very cool, appreciate you going above and beyond!

    I think those 2 posts may help some Axionistas feel better about the situation or maybe even gain courage to buy at the lowest prices ever for this stock. Both posts I believe contained the word "Buffett". One did for sure. If you can't find them quickly don't trouble yourself searching.
    Oct 28 10:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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