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  • Intel Developer Forum 2014: Investment Theories Confirmed [View article]
    Bruce,

    I knew you couldn't resist for long. :-)
    Sep 14 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Earns Green Light To Double [View article]
    Fourth.
    Sep 14 12:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: A Historic Turn-Around In The Making [View article]
    Nice job, Soid. Thanks.

    I would love to see you do some numerical projections for AMD. Your previous article on Micron proves that you are quite capable of doing excellent financial projections.
    Sep 14 07:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown! [View article]
    I'm satisfied that the iPhone 6 has 1GB and the iPhone 6 Plus has 2GB. I'm also convinced that this will create an additional imbalance in the world mobile DRAM market of about 3%. That's substantial in an already supply constrained market. The result will be:
    1. Higher prices for mobile DRAM not under long term contracts;
    2. Even higher prices for DRAM not under long term contracts when the long term contracts under 1 above expire;
    3. Bidding wars for OEMs who need DRAM to sell products costing 50 times or more than the cost of the DRAM. So what if we double the price of the DRAM cost. It only increases our cost for the product by less than 2%;
    4. Higher prices mean higher profits across the oligopoly; and
    5. Higher profits mean higher predicted EPS and higher prices for the stock of the supplier.

    Anyone see a flaw in this analysis?
    Sep 13 04:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    oldbeachlvr,

    Occam it is then.
    Sep 13 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Determining Micron Technology's Fair Value [View article]
    chicagotim,

    >>First, is it fair to say that INTC is a very different company than MU<<

    Yup.

    >>Second, hasn't the niche that MU operates in been subject to consolidation, with MU surviving as one of the stronger players?<<

    Yup again.

    >>So, my thesis for potentially investing in the company is that I think they are a good candidate for multiple expansion. <<

    I think so too.
    Sep 12 10:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Has Almost Doubled In The Past Year, But It's Still A Good Investment [View article]
    Good summary. Thanks.
    Sep 11 11:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Thanks, Dixon.

    That's nice to hear.
    Sep 11 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Thanks, Cool Bow Wow,

    Worked.
    Sep 11 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown! [View article]
    William, Phred,

    >>if Apple went ahead and released the phone without enough memory (say 1GB)...<<

    Looks pretty clearly like it did exactly that.

    >>...and performance suffers...<<

    We don't know if it will but it does seem likely that it will. Larger screen real estate requires larger memory.

    >>...causing a big PR stink...<<

    It will

    >>...then Apple will do whatever it has to do to fix the problem...<<

    Now for the $64 question:

    WHATEVER COULD THAT BE?

    It takes too long to do anything that might work. An IPhone recall? An increase in NAND to 512GB? Any ideas?

    >>...and that could get really ugly fast (though good for short term profits) - significant over demand is the most threatening scenario to industry cohesion.<<

    Yup.
    Sep 11 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown! [View article]
    kjjerome,

    Nope.
    Sep 11 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown! [View article]
    When I was a kid, I wanted to be a doctor so that I could cut people open and see what was inside of them.

    I never grew up.
    Sep 11 08:32 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown! [View article]
    magia,

    Yup.

    >>Whatever is the case they can not produce additional DRAM. They are tapped out.<<

    That's the point. And you make it.
    Sep 11 08:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    http://bit.ly/ZhO94n

    My dream did not survive the cold hard facts of maybe reality .
    Here is what really happened (My newer dream):

    Apple goes to Micron Asia, formerly Elpida, and says:

    "Have we got a deal for you. Sell us all your production of mddrxxx for Y cents a piece, and we'll take everything you can produce and prepay some so you can build a new plant to fill our needs."

    Elpida: Sorry, we won't sell you more than yyyy Bytes and you can't have all our production. We have to save some for other good customers.
    Apple: OK, we'll take what you're willing to sell and see what we can get elsewhere.
    Elpida: We wish you good luck but we don't think that you can get that much DRAM anywhere.

    Apple goes to Samsung and says:

    "Have we got a deal for you. Sell us all your production of mddrxxx for Y cents a piece, and we'll take everything you can produce and prepay some so you can build a new plant to fill our needs."

    Samsung (in Korean): Sorry, we won't sell you more than yyyy Bytes and you can't have all our production. Our phone division comes first and we have to save some for good customers.
    Apple: OK, we'll take what you're willing to sell and see what we can get elsewhere.
    Samsung (in Korean): We wish you good luck but we don't think that you can get that much DRAM anywhere.

    Apple goes to Hynix and says:

    "Have we got a deal for you. Sell us all your production of mddrxxx for Y cents a piece, and we'll take everything you can produce and prepay some so you can build a new plant to fill our needs."

    Hynix (in English): Sorry, we won't sell you more than yyyy Bytes and you can't have all our production. We have to save some for good customers.
    Apple: OK, we'll take what you're willing to sell and see what we can get elsewhere.
    Hynix (in English): We wish you good luck but we don't think that you can get that much DRAM anywhere.


    Oopps.
    Sep 11 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Confusion Of Ideas - Micron And The DRAM Industry [View article]
    OK, my dream did not survive the cold hard facts of maybe reality http://bit.ly/ZhO94n
    .
    Here is what really happened (My newer dream):

    Apple goes to Micron Asia, formerly Elpida, and says:

    "Have we got a deal for you. Sell us all your production of mddrxxx for Y cents a piece, and we'll take everything you can produce and prepay some so you can build a new plant to fill our needs."

    Elpida: Sorry, we won't sell you more than yyyy Bytes and you can't have all our production. We have to save some for other good customers.
    Apple: OK, we'll take what you're willing to sell and see what we can get elsewhere.
    Elpida: We wish you good luck but we don't think that you can get that much DRAM anywhere.

    Apple goes to Samsung and says:

    "Have we got a deal for you. Sell us all your production of mddrxxx for Y cents a piece, and we'll take everything you can produce and prepay some so you can build a new plant to fill our needs."

    Samsung (in Korean): Sorry, we won't sell you more than yyyy Bytes and you can't have all our production. Our phone division comes first and we have to save some for good customers.
    Apple: OK, we'll take what you're willing to sell and see what we can get elsewhere.
    Samsung (in Korean): We wish you good luck but we don't think that you can get that much DRAM anywhere.

    Apple goes to Hynix and says:

    "Have we got a deal for you. Sell us all your production of mddrxxx for Y cents a piece, and we'll take everything you can produce and prepay some so you can build a new plant to fill our needs."

    Hynix (in English): Sorry, we won't sell you more than yyyy Bytes and you can't have all our production. We have to save some for good customers.
    Apple: OK, we'll take what you're willing to sell and see what we can get elsewhere.
    Hynix (in English): We wish you good luck but we don't think that you can get that much DRAM anywhere.


    Oopps.
    Sep 11 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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