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  • GT Advanced Technologies Bankruptcy Update [View article]
    CA,

    It's not unusual. When the debtor (GTAT) agrees with the motion, it will often be requested to file for it itself to so indicate. And it did.

    I am guessing that GTAT sees itself having a continuing relationship with Apple if it comes out of chapter 11 reorganized regardless of who the owners are at that time. So GTAT and Apple both want to preserve business secrets, like pricing for example, which both would not want competitors to know.

    Say Apple takes 49% of the new equity for its claim against GTAT, creditors get the rest except for say 20% in the form of warrants to executives. New GTAT will need to sell sapphire glass to
    Apple if it uses the Mesa facility to make it and Apple doesn't want Mesa. It wants the sapphire glass products.

    If you want to buy something, I'd say buy the debt, not the stock. I don't think the stock gets anything but the debt will.
    Oct 21 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Bankruptcy Update [View article]
    The "deal" was about extending Apple's deadline for filing its argument that its contractual arrangements and other written material should be filed under seal with a request that it remain confidential.

    Here is the order granting the extension to the deadline:
    http://bit.ly/1sLeHF3

    Apparently GTAT wants it kept confidential as well as Apple.
    Oct 21 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    One of your best, Russ.
    Oct 20 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DRAM Contract Prices Increase In October Despite New Capacity Announcements: Good For Micron [View article]
    *Very nice job.
    Thanks.
    Oct 20 11:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax: The Facts Are Shining Through [View article]
    rstran,

    >>Could it go back to where is was pre-google? That was below $3, no?<<

    I don't think we'll get that lucky. At $3, it would yield 9% at the current dividend rate.

    But, hey, you never know. I'll have some cash ready, just in case. I'll start buying higher than that.
    Oct 18 01:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Non-GAAP Signals [View article]
    k-kat,

    >>I suppose it also begs the question, was it always part of Apple's master plan to get into the Sapphire business with someone else, using GT technology that they obtained as a result of making unrealistic demands and putting GT out of business, also knowing they are secured by inventory and equipment?<<

    Given Apple's finances and the way the agreements are written, it seems more likely to me that GTAT made unrealistic promises which Apple did not fully believe but GTAT insisted and Apple secured itself to be able to find out just in case GTAT was right. It looks to me like GTAT was the unrealistic one.
    Oct 17 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 2) [View article]
    seeker,

    If the company was in difficult straights and had a revolutionary product line, it seems to me to be likely that the sales force wasn't very good.
    Oct 17 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 2) [View article]
    William,

    OK, we'll see if they can integrate a sales force, which was not selling enough of Fusion IO's strong product line to make Fusion IO grow, in a way that works for SanDisk. My intellectual examination of the idea of buying a company for its sales force which isn't selling well tells me that it will likely turn out to be a mistake.

    We'll find out in a year or two.
    Oct 17 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 2) [View article]
    I took a quick look and listened to the call.

    I do see some potential problems.

    Nine Months:
    Although Revenue was up 10% and Cost of Revenue was up only 5.5%, Sales and Marketing stands out as a potential problem as up 39.5%. That was the largest contributor to Net Income being up only 14%.

    Three Months:
    Although Revenue was up 7.5%, Cost of Revenue was up 13%, Sales and Marketing stands out as a potential problem as up 54%. That was the largest contributor to Gross Profit being up only 2%. Sales and Marketing was up a whopping 54%; G&A up 22%; which were the largest contributing factors to operating income and net income both being down 5%.

    I don't follow SanDisk but they look a little troublesome to me. Sales and Marketing expenses are skyrocketing. That could be attributable to the acquisition but, even if so, it looks like it is a continuing factor which will continue to hurt performance in the future. Fortunately, that would not be relevant to Micron.

    Management refused to break out Fusion IO from the results so I can't tell. She did say that Fusion IO had "a very large sales force" but she said that the Fusion IO gross margin was accretive to the SanDisk gross margin so Fusion IO is not the problem. Fortunately, neither is that relevant to Micron.

    ASPs didn't go up enough to reflect the supply/demand situation. SanDisk seems to be afraid to raise prices to its legacy customers. One of the analysts questioned why the legacy relationship wasn't a two-way street so that the customers chip more in when their demand exceeds available supply. I'd ask the same question. I'd call their answer "scared".

    As far as SanDisk goes, I wouldn't want to own it until I could get a handle on the impact of Fusion IO across the boards. Right now, it looks troubling and it looks like the trouble is continuing. If they can chop that Fusion IO sales force by more than 60%, I might get interested.
    Oct 17 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks, seeker.

    I should know better than to believe anything the analysts say.

    I'll have to take a look myself. Too bad. I was planning to get drunk on soju.
    Oct 17 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 2) [View article]
    Jaret,

    I think we all agree that maximizing profit is the goal. We just disagree on how to do that. I don't think that we have any disagreement on the theory, just on the input data.

    We all agree that $200/barrel oil is not good for me and my oil wells with a 20 year useful life. But I don't have any. We all agree that its good for me and my oil wells with a one year useful life. But I don't have any of those either.

    But how about the ones which I don 't have with a useful life of 4 years? 8 years? $105 oil? $95 oil? $121.76 oil?

    The problem is that we are all guessing at the degree of demand and its growth rate. We are guessing with more information now that Sandisk has reported stinky numbers and given stinky guidance. I'm lowering my outlook and I am now closer to Jaret's point of view. But I'm not there yet.

    If Micron can make a deal with Intel it feels is reliable that will get it a shell if it needs one, then I'm for not starting to build one. That would cost us the benefit of the Munich reminder which William refers to below. But maybe $6 billion is worth losing that benefit. Maybe.

    If Micron cannot come up with an arrangement with Intel that is reliable, I think it should start construction. $6 billion plant over three to four years will be something less than $1 billion the first year because shells are cheap (especially in Vietnam) gradually escalating to about $2.4 billion the fourth year. That leaves plenty of cash flow for convertible retirement, etc.

    If you have the plant, you can elect not to fill it. if you don't have it, you cannot elect to fill it and produce. I like keeping my options open. I'm also fond of sending messages to suppliers, customers, and competitors in subtle ways that are more believable than just saying that it's so.

    I could be way off. I never took a course in game theory though I do know how to play the game of brinksmanship.

    Brinksmanship my way is to push them off the cliff but hold tightly onto the rope I tied around them before I pushed and then be a little hard of hearing. I know you're not supposed to push them off but my way works too and it's a lot more fun.
    Oct 16 10:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Dorothy, Micron Will Not See $50 [View article]
    beechiegirl,

    mismatch #1. Subtle.

    >>It's volatile, for sure, but matters not to me which direction it takes, as all you need...<<

    Better: It's volatile, for sure, but matters not to me which direction it takes, as all I need...<<

    Best: It's volatile, for sure, but matters not to me which direction it takes, as all it needs...<<

    :-)
    Oct 16 12:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Dorothy, Micron Will Not See $50 [View article]
    beechiegirl,

    You realize that you just challenged all the readers here to read your every comment for noun/verb mismatches.

    Now write an article about micron which says nothing but contains three subtle number mismatches and watch the pennies roll in.

    Thanks for the fun. I needed that.
    Oct 16 12:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Profiting From Legacy Technology [View article]
    techy,

    I'm not so sure about "65% GM". That remains to be seen. But 35% would still be marginally profitable so there is room at 65% to miss.
    Oct 15 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 2) [View article]
    seeker,

    >>You don't even know what that fab will be used for!<<

    True. I don't think that I need to. Just like Samsung, I'll decide as we go along.

    >>I guarantee that Sammie is not building a $15b fab for DRAM alone. Much more likely NAND, if it is to be used for just one type of chip, but I doubt even that.<<

    Party we have a semantic misunderstanding here. I am calling both DRAM and NAND "memory". One is non-volatile memory and one is volatile memory. And we left out logic. it could be any or all of DRAM, NAND logic.

    And I don't think that it is necessary for Micron to know what Samsung's plant is going to be used for anyway, no more than Samsung does. It can bujild now and add equipment later.

    >>IMHO, Micron doesn't really have to do anything right now. Assuming that they are on good terms with Intel--and I assume that they are--they can always cut a deal later on for some of their unused space.<<

    I agree that they have done that and I disagree that they can always do it again at Micron's option. In the past, they did it when it suited them both. I don't want someone else, even my cousin, in control of my destiny. What if it is very inconvenient for Intel to give Micron plant capacity. Intel's own production is exploding (and, for the same reasons, e.g., IOT, mobile, etc.). No, I want my own electric train set. I want to be the driver.

    >>So I don't think it is important for Micron to announce any new space at all right now, in fact it would be counter productive at the moment.<<

    It's a good point and very arguable. I disagree though but my mind is open about it.

    >>Micron's first goal at this point is to get their balance sheet in order...<<

    Good argument and I still disagree. Micron's first goal is to make the money to accomplish this and the other goals, most of which take a lot of money. Preserving MIPO is essential to that goal. And maintaining a slight imbalance in the demand over the supply is essential to that, as William states above (or below, I can never get how SA places comments.)
    Oct 15 11:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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