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  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Hi Craig. Looks like you're going to win our bet about North Dakota topping 1MMb/d before 2015. Unfortunately, Blanco's closed last month and House of Pies burned down, so we'll have to pick another joint to settle the $100 bet. Sam's Boat on Richmond?

    http://1.usa.gov/1eJMgPL
    Jan 9 08:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Liquid fuel is more powerful, economical transport. Think aircraft. Then do the math on converting 300,000 big rigs, a million farm implements and bulldozers.

    'North American energy independent' means what? - more exports to Mexico? growing mountains of toxic asphalt coke from upgrading and refining Canadian dilbit? an environmental wasteland in Fort Mac?

    Your 10 year plan smacks of Stalinist thinking. What happened in Soviet Union when they confiscated private industry? - and that's exactly what you'd have to do, one way or the other, to force oil companies to cut off sales you didn't like and/or make products they didn't want to produce. Solyndra-ize Exxon? Hah.
    Jan 9 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Permian and South Cana could go the way of Mississippi Lime. I wouldn't count those barrels as a done deal. EOG's larger shorter laterals are as far as "new technology" will take us, if adopted by other drillers. I'm particularly worried about deepwater GOM. There have been too many projects scratched, and performance at Thunder Horse showed that digital reservoir modelling is in trouble. Finding oil with the drill bit (subsurface exploration) still matters, and the cost of drilling the Lower Tertiary in ultradeep water is a 'bet the company' proposition for all but the biggest IOCs. Okay for reserves windowdressing, but not necessarily development. Lastly, I'll mention delivered price and cost of rail transport. $70 kills North Dakota. Another train wreck might kill it. Price and availability of HY debt matters. Maybe you have better data than I do.

    Lower 48 could grow another notch, but not enough to fix anything financially. Banking on Ohio to pay for itself is an Aubrey fairy tale. EIA is using rose-colored glasses.
    Jan 9 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Petrobas [View article]
    "The US government allowed the financial crisis to happen... then fine the hell out of the big banks and take the cash... Over and over this pillaging happens."

    Good thing you're not worried about your credibility.
    Jan 8 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Antero Resources - Nearly 50% Upside From Current Levels, Street Estimates Too Low, Midstream Assets Undervalued [View article]
    Meh. COG is a better bet. http://bit.ly/1ghY5Of
    Jan 8 04:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Petrobas [View article]
    Agreed, your thesis is 'in tact' and you're not the smartest tool. The giant institutions are buying PBR debt, hedging currency risk. Unless you look under the hood at the Chinese priority claim on pre-salt and the goofy sand castle of directional drilling and gas reinjection, PBR chart technicals are meaningless. Petrobras is dead money, dude.
    Jan 8 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Changing Course? [View article]
    My suggestion is to look at Marcellus producers and midstream blue chips on the chance we'll see secular gains that lifts all boats. Me? No position long or short in energy.
    Jan 8 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Changing Course? [View article]
    Gumby has a good point, more natgas power gen http://1.usa.gov/1ddW1c2
    Jan 7 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Changing Course? [View article]
    Stocks were 562 Bcf less than last year as of Friday, December 27, 2013 and
    289 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,263 Bcf. http://1.usa.gov/ofCrGW

    Next EIA data release is Jan. 9 and subsequent reports will tell the tale in working storage and drawdowns as winter grinds on. Solar Cycle 24 may be a 'Dalton minimum.' http://bit.ly/1drNEnL

    Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow pack larger this year http://bit.ly/1drNEnN

    UNG has option decay that makes it a false indicator of supply and demand.
    Jan 7 12:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Changing Course? [View article]
    Natural gas for Tuesday delivery rose as high as $90 a million British thermal units at a pipeline delivery point in New Jersey where New York City gas prices are set, according to IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc. On Friday, gas there traded at an average of $13.6102/mmBtu. Two other trading hubs, where natural gas is bought for states from South Carolina to New Jersey, each saw prices reach a record of $95/mmBtu. [WSJ]

    Last week's natural gas storage report revealed that stocks fell by 97 billion cubic feet during the week ending Dec. 27, according to data from the Energy Information Administration released Friday morning... Heavier drawdowns are predicted for the two weeks ending on Jan. 10, Richard Hastings, a strategist at Global Hunter Securities, said in a report on Monday. Hastings put the drawdown at up to 430 bcf over the 14-day period. [Reuters]

    In oil [and gas] fields from Texas to North Dakota and Canada, the severe cold threatened to disrupt traffic, strand wells and interrupt drilling and fracking operations... In Cleveland, Ohio, the temperature was minus 3 degrees F and was forecast to drop to minus 6 degrees F overnight...The National Weather Service issued warnings for life-threatening wind chills in western and central North Dakota, with temperatures as low as -60 F. The U.S. cold snap mirrored or outdid freezing weather in parts of the world as Almaty, Kazakhstan where it was -8 degrees F, in Mongolia where temperatures reached -10 degrees F, and Irkutsk, Siberia, where it was -27 degrees F. [TD Waterhouse]

    Global warming? - pffft.
    Jan 6 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil Sell-Off Provides A Big Opportunity [View article]
    12 Nov 13: IOC jumps to $80 on heavy volume, tops at $90 three days later.
    I commented: "Nice exit price. Don't forget to sell on the news, kids."
    http://bit.ly/1eZrgsM
    Jan 2 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Look At InterOil's Deal With Total SA [View article]
    Widely reported Total will carry the cost of drilling for appraisal well program.
    Dec 30 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Look At InterOil's Deal With Total SA [View article]
    You first.
    Dec 29 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Look At InterOil's Deal With Total SA [View article]
    An estimate of contingent resource is at issue. No matter whose estimate is ultimately accepted, the Final Investment Decision will be based on projected cost of development drilling, completion, well control, gathering, dewatering, disposal, injectors, cryogenic separation, compression, pipeline construction over rugged terrain, electric power generation, communication, accommodation, security, indigenous training and supervision, landing docks, and 150km road construction -- just to get gas from Antelope to shore. Forget the LNG project. How big a financial gamble is it to produce the contingent resource?
    Dec 29 05:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Look At InterOil's Deal With Total SA [View article]
    "Of all gas fields discovered prior to 1982, 228 (5.6 percent) accounted for 75 percent of gross gas reserve growth... Rather than a common characteristic, effective reserve growth in terms of substantial volumetric change is actually the minority effect of a few fields... Statistical aggregation methods should be used with great care and a high level of understanding of the follow-on effects when dealing with the highly skewed distribution of volumetric reserve growth in fields." [Cook, T.A., 2013, USGS]

    A bid by SandRidge Energy Inc. to dismiss an investor lawsuit that claims the Oklahoma City operator provided misleading information regarding natural gas drilling programs has been rejected by a federal district judge... The Pinon Field, which in 2007-2008 comprised more than 60% of SandRidge's proved oil and gas reserves, is but a small part of the company's overall portfolio today. Production in the field has declined rapidly, from 153 MMcfe/d in 2008 to just 47 MMcfe/d in December 2012... SandRidge's lawyers argued that the "factual allegations in the complaint constitute nothing more than a claim that SandRidge was wrong in its predictions of future profits and outputs, which does not suffice to create a strong inference of fraudulent intent," said Thompson in his ruling. "The plaintiffs contend that they have alleged facts constituting strong circumstantial evidence that the defendants were, at the very least, reckless in making false and misleading statements. The court agrees with the plaintiffs." [NGI Daily, July 8, 2013]

    Tullow Oil failed to meet production targets at the Jubilee oilfield at the end of 2012, causing problems for the firm and the Ghanaian government. The declining productivity led to declining revenues for the government who had budgeted for oil revenue of more than $650 million. The corresponding shortfall was more than $410 million. [Wikipedia]

    Reserves growth? --- pfft.
    Dec 29 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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