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  • Saudi Oil Meeting Scenarios [View article]
    Pursley intelligent? "Russia is the world's biggest oil producer not Saudi Arabia. This is because Russian geologists realize that petroleum comes from the mantle and not living organisms." He inadvertently supplies an excellent investment strategy. If there's a Russian abiotic geologist involved, short it.
    Jun 16 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Oil Meeting Scenarios [View article]
    Excellent stuff, sir. I very much enjoy reading your work. Only one quibble. You mentioned "a solution to above ground problems in Iraq and Nigeria," which I think is improbable.
    Jun 16 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Saudis Increase Oil Production? [View article]
    I don't fully understand this Reuters story, but it's pertinent:
    Asian Refiners Say No Thanks to More Saudi Crude
    Jun 16 07:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Saudis Increase Oil Production? [View article]
    Depends whether the added production is heavy sour. If so, there is still a significant shortfall in light crude to make deisel and a refinery shortage of all types, esp. in Europe.
    Jun 16 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: Uncertainty Fading [View article]
    I don't intend to read StockLemon. Our shop does geology. My remark about IOC's history referred to Enron's JEDI scam, which has nothing to do with valuing the Elk-Antelope exploration prospect.
    Jun 15 05:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: Uncertainty Fading [View article]
    Well, that was educational. I didn't know about StockLemon taking a position before they issued a research report. CWSX doesn't buy, sell, hold, short, or have any commercial relationship with the companies we cover. I don't personally have an axe to grind. IOC got added to my list of things to do this month, that's all.
    Jun 15 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: Uncertainty Fading [View article]
    The last thing I wanted to do this weekend was look at another impenetrable scam spawned by Enron and Merrill. Rather than comment here, I'll do a formal assessment.
    Jun 14 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outstanding Capital Efficiency at BPZ Resources [View article]
    Sorry, typing error, losing $20 million a year (not billion).
    Jun 13 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outstanding Capital Efficiency at BPZ Resources [View article]
    1000 bpd, total, correct? Negative roe, losing $20B a year. Throw out the Monte Carlo fantasy and all you have left is adverse geology and rusty platforms that were expropriated from Tenneco.

    Disclosure: no position long or short, no intention to buy or sell.
    Jun 13 02:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble? [View article]
    1. Speculators and traders perform a vital service, communicating and competitively adjudicating prices. You can't have an auction without bidders.

    2. The cost of oil production has soared, partly because easy targets are exhausted and partly because there has been secular inflation (taxes, standard of living, money supply, oil industry skill shortage and declining rig count, cash piling up in China).

    3. Tar sands, deepwater, Arctic 'reserves' should be discounted if not entirely ignored. Abiotic sourcing is absolute hooey.

    4. BP -- 'Beyond Petroleum' -- is about to get their financial butts sawed off in Russia, just like Shell and Exxon did. I interpret Mr. Hayward's press release as a plea bargain. Don't blame me, he says, because those selfish Arabs and Russians won't let BP grow and thrive. The new, improved estimates of world 'reserves' are a joke. The one and only thing that matters is production.

    5. It doesn't matter whether you play the momentum up or down. What's at stake is energy to produce food, heat homes, get from point A to point B in an airplane, 18-wheeler, or battle tank. That's why we're in Iraq. That's why we have a Strategic Oil Reserve, to power the gas-guzzling U.S. military. Economic history of World War I and II paints a clear picture of what happened last time nations fought nations for control of oilfields. War risk is $30+ per barrel today. I don't see that risk evaporating any time soon.
    Jun 12 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: Extremely Overvalued [View article]
    Well, I stand by my estimate. The Reuters quote pertains to wildcat appraisal drilling, part of the first $2 billion to assess what they have. Production will require fracturing, horizontal drilling, and special risers to resist corrosion. Mutiply times 10 platforms to explore and (maybe) produce Tupi's 1000 sq km prospect. Add transport, floating LNG or pipeline. Interest expense, overheads, mistakes and lost tools. It adds up in a hurry.
    Jun 12 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Nearing Crunch Time for Oil [View article]
    "If I'm wrong and oil came from dinosaurs..." No, jeez, not from dinosaurs. It comes from organic silt, mostly sea plankton and other oraganic goop deposited 30-50 million years ago. Doesn't bubble up out of inorganic magma, either, no matter what the Russians say.

    And there are no trillion barrel oil reserves in Venezuela and Canada. Trillion barrel asphalt reserves, yes. Perfectly good for repaving an infinite number of parking lots and low-traffic residential streets.
    May 5 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T. Boone Pickens Predicts $125/Barrel Oil [View article]
    Well, no. Watch supply decline in Venezuela, delay and shortfalls in Brazil, Khazakstan, Russia, Arabia. Pickens has it exactly right. We have a global surplus of natural gas, not oil.
    Apr 25 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Many Investors Seem To Think the Worst Is Over [View article]
    Grace Cheng - hubba hubba! Beauty and brains and bear-minded. What's not to like?

    I wouldn't call it a relief rally. Just too much hot money with nowhere to go. I also question the honesty of tech profits. Have y'all forgotten the channel stuffing trick of booking accrued sales that never happen?
    Apr 20 02:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Realities of Natural Gas [View article]
    Sure, invest in gas if you can separate the goats from the sheep. U.S. pipeline companies look good, for instance. I like producers in Canada and Michigan.

    Unlike other commenters, I very much appreciated this article.
    Apr 13 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment