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  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Let's see the term sheet, who pays what and when.
    Jul 12 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    No position long or short in energy. I don't think you grasp what I said about the BP wells not making a dime of profit for 8 years. Same thing with the overpriced Berry mess. Investment bankers make fees.
    Jul 9 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    Poor stupid BP, sold a long-lived cash cow to Linn for a handful of beans.
    Jul 9 11:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    Cabot has high-margin operations in the Marcellus and Eagle Ford. EOG is an excellent company with 600K net acres (90% in oil window) in the Eagle Ford (2Bbbl resource) and pioneering success in the Niobrara Chalk.

    Linn plus Berry? - pfft. No comparison.
    Jul 8 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Chevron: Profit From The Market's Oversight [View article]
    Dry hole costs are rising and CVX probably regrets being committed so heavily in offshore Western Australia. "Standard Oil of California" is an odd company. Highly regarded by the industry for their technical competence, but quite touchy-feely-greenie at heart. The single best thing Chevron could do is spin off their California refining and retail operations.
    Jul 8 10:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Juggernauts [View article]
    Did you produce any oil in Guyana?
    Jul 8 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    $4.3 billion for 3,500 mostly EOR "huff and puff" wells?
    Jul 8 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil (IOC) Produces [View instapost]
    As noted previously, any forthcoming deal will be between PNG government (not IOC) and an arm's length joint venture of Exxon and Oil Search to build and operate the PNGLNG plant, under the banner Esso Highlands Ltd PNG, so if it blows up Exxon can walk away with no deep pocket liability.

    But we're getting near announcement time, if there's going to be one. Here's a link to a Canadian press release about "results" of the IOC shareholder party.
    I personally didn't bother to read it. http://bit.ly/11wS2Cv
    Jul 8 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    I read they have 19,000 wells, of which 3,000 were acquired from BP in 2012.

    $1.162B / 16,000 = $199 per well per day 2011
    $1.601B / 19,000 = $231 per well per day 2012

    I think most of the gain was higher realized prices for gas. Please correct me
    if you have an alternate explanation for the YOY top line gain. Meanwhile I'm thinking of ROI.

    Linn paid $2 billion to add 3,000 BP wells, and let's assume that they're not profoundly different than the legacy portfolio. At $250 per well per day the BP wells payback $2B in about 8 years with a very small fudge factor for natural decline, maintenance, interest expense, and G&A.

    Not a dime of profit between now and 2020 on the BP wells.
    Jul 8 05:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    All I did was read page 79 and use YOY arithmetic. I think I understand Bryce's view of unrealized losses and your question about the ambiguity of pro forma results as if something had not happened, or happened in a different reporting period.

    I have failed in understanding whether Linn is or can be profitable as an operating company. Plenty of financial information about acquisitions, cash flow, hedges, and distributions. Nothing on a per-well or per-field basis by which I could assess legacy (core asset) production results.. Could be failing eyesight.
    Jul 8 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    Page 79 of the 10-K, Linn 2012 revenue down 20%, operating expense up 47%, swung from $640 million profit in 2011 to $340 million loss in 2012.

    Tell me again why this is a good company?
    Jul 8 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conditions Are Very Favorable For Syntroleum Restart [View article]
    Biofuel minus tax credits = $25 gal, correct?
    Jul 7 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    Sorry to intrude on a question directed to Richard, but I have a comment to make on reserves replacement or "reserves creation" on a BOE basis.

    It is imperative to disregard BOE (barrel of oil equivalent: 6mcf = 1bbl oil) as phony windowdressing . Today's most optimistic forward pricing of 6mcf at the wellhead might netback $30, compared to a barrel of oil selling north of $90.

    The fact that $10 million wells are drilled onshore that result in negative cash flows, and it's not atypical for a deepwater well to cost upwards of $50 million, the problem of "creating" reserves is too often a financial magic act aimed at fleecing investors (ATP, CHK) rather than a profitable industrial enterprise.

    The past five years were a boom in oil speculation, based on QE, ZIRP, IPO mania, and low-cost syndicated funding. If the Fed tapers, all bets are off.
    Jul 6 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    The wager still stands. Receivership by 2016.
    Jul 6 12:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Different Kind Of Oil And Gas Company? [View article]
    No competent third party independent assessment will certify any of those unproved acres as anything but contingent resources: 1C, 2C or 3C depending on Monte Carlo inputs of nominal recovery factor and an analog that they elect to use for a decline curve. That's why I cautioned in a previous conversation that companies and engineering consultants have wide latitude in projecting URR.
    Jul 5 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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