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  • Petrobras gains as investors hope no more surprises ahead [View news story]
    Huge short covering going on with the common stock PBR. You can actually buy the preffered stock PBR/A at a $0.75 discount to the common stock today, gotta love these markets!
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: BP readies defenses against takeover following Shell’s raid [View news story]
    Not to mention that BP owns a 19,75% stake in Rosneft. Exxon and Rosneft both want to further cement their relationship in the coming years, with Rosneft having the world’s biggest reserves + output and Exxon having the largest market cap. ROSN & XOM will certainly progress with their plans to continue drilling huge oil discoveries together in the Russian Arctic's Kara Sea. Given the strong dollar it would seem good timing for Exxon to make a play for BP..
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Would Buy Ensco Now [View article]
    Recently (re-)initiated positions in the same stocks you mention. Next to Ensco also Shell and BHP. Stock prices will move with the underlying commodities, but the South32 spin-off with its own dividend while maintaining similar dividend under the 'new' BHP gives you a couple of reasons to hold in a diversified portfolio currently.

    Also again looking into Glencore and Fortescue, a bit of a waiting game at the moment. Rosneft also looks good value, they will be increasing development of in-house drilling service capability I expect
    Mar 9, 2015. 08:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco - Excellent Operational Metrics Mask A Weaker Fleet [View article]
    Ensco's 120 series, enough said.. http:// http://bit.ly/1wIyZ7X
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell to launch new scrip dividend program [View news story]
    Exactly the same SCRIP program as they had til middle last year. On mainland Europe you always received A, also on the RDS-B shares. Anyway, good move by Shell
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Ensco's Dividend Cut [View article]
    It's useful to add that the majority of the impairment was due to almost completely removing goodwill from the balance sheet. Goodwill was reduced from 3.27B to 270M in, dealing with the Pride-elephant in the room. Assets are now 16.9B, 8.2B net equity, current P/B 0.7. It always better to buy cyclicals like BBL and ESV with good EPS, valuation, balance sheet, rating when their at the lower point of the cycle. They cpuld have maintained $3 dividend for a long time, even with increased coldstacking, but they learned from Pride. HERO, SDRL, NADL are in bad shake, providing possible opportunities in the next 36 months
    Mar 2, 2015. 02:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ensco's 10% Dividend Is Built To Last [View article]
    Ensco's board didn't cut the dividend 80% because they can't sustain $0,375 - $0,75 quarterly now or during the next quarters. It's an entirely different situation from SDRL and NADL with their balance sheet issues (..apples and oranges) .

    ESV decided to cut it because they are currently expecting two very, very difficult years for the entire sector. Revenues and profit margins are going down for everyone and visibility is terrible. Given that, the main thing to do now is keeping rigs working, cost control and reduction, and maintaining a healthy balance sheet through this downturn.

    There's nothing wrong with bracing yourself for the worst. If it gets to that I can think of one or two sizeable players who may well go belly-up or face restructuring within 24-48 months.. but Ensco won't be one of them.

    "David Wilson - Howard Weil, Inc.
    Okay, great. Thanks for that, Jay. And then just I guess the follow-on, on the dividend cut. Just running through some iterations and sensitivities on my forecast, I've got even if you did cold-stack every rig that rolled off, that you would have been able to maintain the prior dividend for quite a while. Just kind of curious as to the timing of doing it now versus maybe doing it later and seeing if the market improves and you wouldn't have to cut it. Just I know you guys talked about the rationale for the cut, but just wanted to get a little bit more color on that.

    Carl Trowell - President and Chief Executive Officer
    Yes, Dave. It's Carl here. There are a whole series of issues that have come up in this decision and reasons why we've done it. If I go back to the prepared comments, one of the first things that really came into our decision-making process was the rapid deterioration we saw in the market conditions as we went through the end of Q4. But even at that time, we had a relatively opaque view on what our clients were going to do and what our customers were going to do in 2015 and a little bit into 2016.

    And as we came to the end of the quarter and really over the last four weeks to eight weeks, we've had chance to be able to now see some of those announcements and actually sit with most of our customers and really see what the demand outlook was and their drilling plans were going to be and we've very much focused on not just 2015, but going through into 2016. And so, we've really tried to look at the company in terms of where we want to be one year to two years down the line not just today.

    And we looked at several things. The first was the risk and opportunities involved in an extended market downturn and from that, we decided that increased liquidity and the flexibility for our capital management was something we wanted to do earlier rather than later, one to manage the risk, but also, to be able to be in a position to take opportunities if they came and we felt that were appropriate.

    The second is that we wish to maintain our credit rating. And thirdly, we still wish to maintain to pay a meaningful dividend that was comparable to other S&P companies, but to give us more flexibility in what is, we think, quite clearly going to be a multiyear down cycle."
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco beats by $0.32, revenue in-line [View news story]
    After the goodwill impairment current P/B is now 0.75
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco beats by $0.32, revenue in-line [View news story]
    EPS good, 5th beat in 6 quarters, and divi is fine. The big point is they have now dealt with the elephant in the room.. impairement for almost all the goodwill! Goodwill from 3.27B to 270M, total assets now 16.1B, total net equity now 8.2B
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big investors cut stakes in Petrobras as corruption scandal weighs [View news story]
    so far..
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big investors cut stakes in Petrobras as corruption scandal weighs [View news story]
    And surely some are increasing their stake again now PwC is being signed for another 2 years, audited Q3 has been announced for end of March, and audited Q4 - including writedowns - has been announced for end of May. No complaints about new management software far
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm After The Storm: Royal BAM Group Offers Value At The Bottom Of The Well [View article]
    ING raises price target for BAM to €4.00 http://bit.ly/1CSrEPP
    Friday, February 20, 2015 | Source: AB Media

    ING's target for BAM Group significantly increased from 1.85 to 4.00.. According to analyst Tijs Hollestelle BAM came with solid figures for 2014 ... cash flow and balance sheet "clearly" improved in the second half, greatly diminishing the worries about the stock.

    Hollestelle pointed to the cash position of BAM, which has enough space to accommodate the reorganization in 2015. ING is removing BAM from its Benelux Least Preferred-lijst. BAM closed Thursday 4.2 percent higher at Euro 3.70

    BAM Groep (BAMNB) current average target price: http://bit.ly/1CSrEPR
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ensco's 10% Dividend Is Built To Last [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1E5kiww
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ensco's 10% Dividend Is Built To Last [View article]
    Ensco's greatest strength has been and still is the company culture and management team, understanding the cyclical nature of this business. A sound balance sheet, an uncomplicated corporate structure, prudent capital spending, growing but not at the expense of the bottom line.

    A key part of their strategy in recent years has been standardization of rig design with focus on customer demand and satisfaction, streamlining operations, increasing efficiency. That 's how you achieve great net income margins.

    2015 does see a peak in capex before dropping of sharply, and of course a difficult operating environment. On the other side you now have the benefits of a completed upgrading program, FY impact from contracted premium jack-ups delivered last year + new two contracted drillships with delivery later this year.


    ESV provided a great value proposition in the mid- and high-20's IMO, regardless of dividend yield, and in the end its the total return that counts. So far it's looking quite good. I certainly expect them to go back to the 40-50 range by year-end 2016.


    If they maintain the full $3 dividend annually for 2015 & 2016 that's a bonus, but I would not be surprised or have a problem with them cutting the annual dividend to $1,80 ($0,45 per Q) for 2015 and $2,40 next year. All depends on what happens with contract renewals and dayrates, management has all the information to make the best decisions at any given time, for all the stakeholders. 
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dutch Buffett: Hal Trust Outperformed Berkshire Hathaway Past Quarter Century [View article]
    HAL has been holding steady above €135 since their IPO of GrandVision, trading between €135-€140 since that time.

    In the latest PR HAL Holding did mention that its pro forma NAV as of December 31, 2014 - whereby GrandVision is included based on the IPO price of €20 - amounts to approximately €160 per share, up from 103 and a bit. Since February 6th GrandVision's has been trading tightly around that €20 mark.

    Given the large jump in NAV, due to the large discrepancy between conservative book value pre-IPO and GrandVision's current value, you now have HAL trading at an 18% discount to NAV.

    Someone recently posted an interesting comment on HAL's share price on a Dutch investment website. HAL Trust evidently tends to trade within 95%-105% of NAV around year-end for most years, except for the end of 2003 when the share price was 11% below NAV and 2005-2007 when the share price was up to 20% above NAV at year-end.

    That would imply some nice upside potential during the remainder of 2015. I guess we will find out soon enough if the correlation again turns out to be true this year.
    Feb 17, 2015. 05:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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