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  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    April 7, 2014. Gazprom management recommends 20% dividend rise, increasing dividend to 7.2 RUB per share from the 5.99 RUB paid on 2012 results.
    Apr 8 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    Gazprom 2014 Investor Day Presentation (73 pages)
    Apr 8 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell confirms profit slump; targets $15B of asset sales [View news story]
    Shell's 2013 increase in spending was largely because of certain major acquisitions; Repsol’s LNG assets $6.7 billion, a $1.4 billion signature bonus for Libra, and because of delayed divestments.

    $130 billion CapEx in four years, two years and $55 billion left, with $15 billion of divestments targeted. Shell is sitting on a pipeline of big projects, investing heavily, with that comes big increases in CF.

    Precisely why there wasn't any drop in share price. This business is long term, big picture..
    Jan 30 08:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    Pay-out on FY 2013 IFRS net income will still be at 25% level for Rosneft and Gazprom, with record date around end of April / beginning of May 2014, payment date in August.

    On Brazil, I also feel there's opportunity there, but it's like a minefield thanks to Dilma Rousseff's government policies and price-controls strangling corporate profitability across all sectors, so the only exposure I've dared to take were Telefonica Brasil at the end of last year, and Petrobras more recent selling Puts.

    There's some deep value in PBR / PBR/A around $12, but the problem you currently have is their push to develop offshore crude, plus negative price controls, have starved the refining part of the equation of necessary funds, with planned refineries being postponed. The problem has never been lack of oil, as PBR has huge offshore reserves waiting to be tapped, with oil output finally set to rise this year, two years later than expected.

    The old refineries are already running at problematically high rates, +90%-95%, to keep up with increased local demand, and they say substantial increases in capacity are still a couple of years away. PBR shareholders have been left holding the bag, watching their investment vaporize to current $12-$13 levels, as Petrobras is required to fulfill local demand, thereby having to sell imports 20% below cost. All the while Rousseff refuses to let PBR raise domestic prices in line with international prices.

    Brazil is now firmly behind Russia and China in the World Bank’s index. CEO Graças Foster has continuously said that the $237 billion expansion plan is impossible without higher fuel prices, so something's got to give sooner or later. The new fuel-pricing policy negotiated at the end of 2013 should help somewhat, but given the non-disclosure it's impossible to judge the precise impact.
    Jan 24 07:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    It's certain something Russia has got to deal with effectively, certainly more effectively than the last decade. I also agree that it’s not unique to Russia. I think examples like Detroit's bankruptcy at local level, or California's enduring debt issues at state level, show the issue isn’t limited to the EU or Russia. U.S. state governments owe well over $4 trillion including unfunded pensions, budget gaps, etc. China's local government debt has hit $3 trillion.

    Russia's sheer size makes proper regional governance & financing particularly difficult, but I suspect they’re starting to realize a chance is needed. Your comment seems quite timely, as this report hit the wires this morning 24-jan-2014: ‘Davos experts urge Russia to focus on regional development - A report unveiled at Davos suggests that regional development is the best economic growth strategy for Russia’

    Excerpt: "In previous years World Economic Forum (WEF) analysts focused on the achievements and problems of Russia as a whole. This year a group of experts led by former Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin decided to focus on individual Russian regions, which they said should become the new engines of the country’s economic growth.

    According to a new report unveiled by the Russian division of the WEF Global Agenda Council, “Russia's Regions: Drivers of Growth,” in eleven Russian regions, economic and investment climate indicators are better than the national average. They can serve as an example of best practice that should be emulated in the rest of the country, the report said.

    Russian provinces should become the engines of economic growth,” said Igor Koval, the head of the investment policy and public-private partnership department at the Economic Development Ministry. “We need to increase the number of regional investment hubs. The mechanisms of attracting investors in order to foster new growth points in the Russian regions include greater cooperation with investment funds and banks, international development institutions, and specialized financial organizations.”

    Full article:
    Jan 24 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks 2014: Investing For Growth - The Power And Protection Of High Compounding Earnings Growth - Part 2 [View article]
    NFLX is overvalued based on metrics, agreed. I'm just trying to convey that when you're talking about new and/or highly innovative companies fundamentals often take a backseat in the short-term. And that there may well be a solid underlying consumer trend / change behind the rise and rise of certain stocks like NFLX, TSLA, AAPL, SAMS(UNG), GOOGL, FB, LNKD.

    Some cash flows aren't there to be seen or properly calculated yet, but you sometimes have reasonable evidence that increased cash flow will materialize in the future. Most projects in new markets are NPV negative first, but when resulting projects are NPV positive you of course still decide to invest in that first project, to establish presence and lay the groundwork.

    Shorting mentioned stocks based on fundamentals is at your own peril. I mostly tend to you use options for selling OTM covered calls on € and $ holdings, how far OTM of course depends on how bullish you are. I think most value investors consider themselves risk-averse instead of risk-neutral, using puts primarily to sell ITM to get assigned. Due to the received premium you get exposure at a lower price then just buying shares outright at market price.
    Jan 23 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks 2014: Investing For Growth - The Power And Protection Of High Compounding Earnings Growth - Part 2 [View article]
    I can't disagree with you, even MSFT, SAMS, & AAPL eventually returned to another, lower valuation level. But you also tend to find out pretty quickly that trading against the big HFs or broader market often isn't wise either. You still see too many value investors trying to catch a falling knife, sometimes loosing their shirts, or sitting on dead money for far too long just focusing on certain fundamentals. This morning's earnings crush by Netflix is evidence enough, +18%. I would not open a position now, just maintain if you bought below $100.

    On more example, TSLA. Tesla has done for electric cars what FB did for social media, taking something to the next level in terms of user experience, accessibility, quality, etc. But most important, make a product or service trendy & cool. The Model S is a hit over here, you see them more and more not only in Amsterdam, but through the whole of Northern Europe, helped by favorable taxes on clean cars.

    They look fantastic, but the 400km max radius on a battery pack made a trip to the Alps or Southern EU impossible, so Tesla has now opened quick charge stations every 250-300 km to solve the issue. These developments plus future potential helped TSLA become a successful investment last year, while IMHO too many (in this comment section) may have been focusing too much on P/E, P/B, P/S and watching in wonder..
    Jan 23 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    FCF in H1 2013 was approximately $7 billion, $4.5 billion (142 billion RUB) in Q2 alone. FCF will be less in H2 2013 due to increase in CapEx, but safe to say I would have little worry about a potential overdraft on a loan of $240 million, seen in prior 2012 reporting.
    Jan 22 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    MTL has $9.4 billion debt, of which they need to repay $2 billion this year alone, with only $400 million in cash and credit lines. They want to sell the remainder of their non-strategic assets, but that will only bring in approximately $1 billion. It's going to be tight, and you don't want to be confronted with additional share issuance resulting in dilution.

    Mechel spend way too much on assets when the global economy was still revving, and now they can't dispose of them, at least not against attractive prices. I think a current comparison of total assets versus liabilities says it all. The question is also how much leeway Sberbank and VTB will continue to give regarding the debt covenants. That 5-10 bagger may take quite a long time Doug, if it ever happens. If you ask me I wouldn't risk it, and would stick with a GLCNF or BVN instead of MTL at this time.

    If you do decide to go for MTL, better to be a bit late to the table instead of too early and loosing your shirt. Just as with gold (precious metals miners) for example, people are now starting to dip their toes back in, but only because the $1200 support seems to be holding for some time now. Wait until you see leveling off and retracement first, instead of trying to catch a falling knife..
    Jan 20 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks 2014: Investing For Growth - The Power And Protection Of High Compounding Earnings Growth - Part 2 [View article]
    It's strange how markets work sometimes, but on the other hand sometimes the market looks much more at unrealized potential, while valuation models are screaming not to buy.

    When Netflix hit $70-$80 I commented on one of Chuck's article that I did consider it a good buy given the company's potential, I think this was about 18 months ago. 1.5 years later the share price has risen to over $300, and all the way up people have been trying to convince me it was and is a bad holding, especially for value investors, which I consider myself to be for the most part.

    Although the original position has been reduced during 2013, I still see potential for the company going forward, while conscious of the information also shown in Chuck's F.A.S.T Graph. I base this on the fact that more and more people in my immediate vicinity are signing up to Netflix, with increased pace actually, and I'm not living in the U.S., but in the Netherlands.

    Increased demand on this side of the pond does show that their business model/service has potential reach to over 190 countries, and with increasing consumer access to high-speed internet it only makes it easier for NFLX to rapidly increase their global presence..
    Jan 20 07:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pharming's Ruconest Triggers Value Creation: Chinese Collaboration Joins U.S., EU Partners [View article]
    PHAR.AS from € 0,15 to € 0,35 in little over six months since writing the article, closed three-quarters of the position this morning. Will let the remaining part ride, watching what Ruconest brings Pharming in the future.
    Jan 20 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    I think €, $, and £ is enough different currencies at present, but beyond that RUB via MICEX or $ via LSE makes little difference in terms of underlying asset..
    Jan 19 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]

    Just as with Gazprom, Rosneft GDRs are available through the LSE.

    I think Rosneft is making all the right moves at the moment having become the world's largest oil company. $8.8 billion 3Q2013 profit, $5.2 billion coming from revaluation of TNK-BP assets, acquired for $55 billion. Revenue growth over 15%, EBITDA growth 41%, FCF times 2, Net income times 8.

    In 2013 they also consolidated Itera, have an expanding JV with ExxonMobil, acquired Morgan Stanley's oil trading unit, almost $16 billion worth of deals between Rosneft and BP alone to sell crude oil and products, and an exchange for Novatek's Sibneftegaz share.

    Finally a $270! billion deal with CNPC to supply crude oil for 25 years, plus a $85 billion deal with Sinopec for the next 10 years. Pre-payments of $70 billion, with the first tranche received this week actually. It's easy to see why Rosneft announced it will increase its dividend payments by 50%, and why I also consider them undervalued at a P/E of roughly 5.
    Jan 19 09:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell warns of plunge in profits [View news story]
    Watershed quarter for Royal Dutch Shell. Ben van Beurden finally replaced Peter Voser on January 1st, a Dutch CEO again four (long) years after Voser succeeded Jeroen van der Veer in 2009.

    Shell will step up divestments this year and next year after 2013 CapEx peaked at $45 billion. Some Nigerian oil blocks, Shell's stake in Woodside (OTCPK:WOPEY), some North Sea assets, about $15 billion worth of assets total.
    Jan 17 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: This Oil And Gas Large-Cap Could Yield 10% By 2016 [View article]
    I simply prefer to trade through centralized exchanges opposed to OTC (over-the-counter) whenever possible given liquidity. Being based in the Netherlands means LSE is available.

    But I must say that OTCMKTS:OGZPY (Gazprom OAO ADR) seems to follow the LSE listed GDRs very closely, so fine for U.S. investors.
    Jan 17 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment