Retracement

Value, dividend growth investing, foreign companies, special situations
Retracement
Value, dividend growth investing, foreign companies, special situations
Contributor since: 2011
Company: V€LUE
I agree with you on the low marginal extraction cost MFITZ, but the elephant in the room is that Sechin was right when he said that debts of US companies involved in shale oil extraction have reached $150+ billion. Time is ticking..
Shell announced that dividend will remain as is for the whole of 2016. First priority is to get cost synergies from the RDS-BG merger now it's been approved.
They will review the dividend starting Q4 2016 (ex-date in Feb 2017) depending on oil and other factors at that time. They haven't cut since 1945, so they want to wait it out a bit longer..
@apt10
No 'rational' oil analyst predicted $25 oil 1-2 years ago either, they were all screaming $100-150 at least.
Let's say your crystal ball is right, what do you think will happen with US shale during the next 12-18 months if WTI stays near $30-35..
$0.47 dividend = for 1 RDS share in Amsterdam, trading @ €20,20/$22.56 at this time. That's an 8,33% annual yield, not 4,5%.
RDS in the US is an ADR consisting of two shares..
No, they're sending out a signal that the power struggle between executive and legislative branches in Brazil is hurting PBR and the whole economy badly..
Brazil’s Supreme Court ruling last month cleared the way for impeachment proceedings to move forward against Rousseff, but under conditions that may increase her chances and makes it easier for her to stay in office in the meantime.
Just to throw something out there..
It's also possible, although rarely discussed, that BHP decides to largerly maintain the current payout level, but chooses to move from a standard cash dividend to a SCRIP dividend.
Companies do this all the time to conserve their cash reserves.
Certainly a positive development for all parties involved, the people of Minas Gerais, and the employees of Samarco which need to get back to work.
Should also help clear some overhang on BHP & Vale stock.
Iran has the world's 4th-largest proved oil reserves, which are cheap to produce. It also has the biggest proved reserves of natural gas at 18% of global total.
The country has already announced it would offer contract terms to 7 IOC to come back to its O&G fields: BP, Shell, Total, ENI, Statoil, Exxon and ConocoPhillips. Shell was in Iran since '99 before sanctions and should be back sooner rather than later..
Especially when you suddenly have better, and more importantly cheaper opportunities close by.. Hassanzadeh won a scholarship from Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) to pursue a master's degree in law at Cambridge in '08-'09.
"Elham Hassanzadeh: The woman shaping Iran's oil future": http://bloom.bg/1KpgFSK
Well, I only wrote ITM calls on 3/5 the position, as Shell is and will remain a core holding. Assignment at profit & premium aside, you were perhaps the one better off, selling a full position @ 45% above current price.. Certainly more cash in the bank to go bargain basement shopping in commodity stocks during 2016!
I'm a buyer of Shell stock at these levels, but the same people which disagreed with me about trimming position around €30 will again disagree with me about adding in the low €18's, if you buy at today's price. When it comes to value investing, and investor psychology specifically, it's usually rationality that is the first thing out the window.
Even professional investors tend to exhibit herd-mentality. That's why in financial markets, when the best time to buy or sell is at hand, even the person who thinks he should take action experiences a strong psychological pressure to refrain from doing so. If buying low and selling high was easy, everyone would be doing it..
Pretty big difference between Blue Origin's suborbital trail and SpaceX landing the Falcon after an actual orbital mission with 11 satellites..
Bezos just seems a wee bit upset that Musk is hitting the headlines again, even though Blue Origin's attempt was a trial while SpaceX nailed it during an actual mission.
PayPal, Tesla, Solar City, SpaceX... You've got to hand it to Elon Musk, he's visionary to say the least.
It may not be very profitable at this point, but slowly changing the world with mass-marketed electric cars, a solar energy leasing company, and a fully reusable rocket deserves high praise in anyone's book!
The Chinese are not known for paying the 'asking' price, even during the best of circumstances.
I still think Putin and Sechin will take the easiest route with Moscow instructing Bogdanov to put Surgutneftegaz's $32.5 billion cash pile to use.. Time will tell
I think your mixing up 'having good odds' with 'beating the odds'
I'm sure you have good odds with Seadrill, great odds actually.. of additional equity financing that dilutes existing SDRL shareholders!
Spend the $4k on a great vacation and think it over
Value destroying ATM, sure. But haven’t we seen this before?.. Take the 10Y chart: $35 in 2004, 2009 and currently. In between we had $150 oil before the crunch and $90-110 WTI for most years since 2010.
The big difference, ten years ago U.S. production was around 5 MMbpd, now with increased shale 9-9.5 MMbpd with high break-even and production costs compared to OPEC’s 31.5 MMbpd (Saudi Arabia 1/3 @ 10.25) and Russia’s 10.75 MMbpd.
With hedges running out and U.S. shale producers drowning in $150+ billion debt you can expect Riyadh and Moscow will keep producing to maintain market share until the opposition really starts to buckle..
You're exaggerating MFITZ
The offer is for each BG Group share to receive 383 pence cash & 0.4454 share RDS B. This valued BG shares at more than 1360 pence when announced, when LON: RDSB was trading @ 2200 pence. Today RDSB is trading @ 1460 pence..
As an RDSA shareholder I think the deal is an overall good strategic fit for Shell, staking their future on deepwater and LNG rather than unconventional oil. With low oil prices buying new reserves is currently more attractive than finding them, especially after betting enormous sums in the past on expensive oil production from oil sands or Arctic fields.
Can you imagine the upside potential in PBR stock if Brazil was to get a market-oriented, centre-right government sometime during the next few years..
FT, your only focusing on the oil.. For the Saudi's it's a means to an end.
The core of OPEC (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) is Sunni.. Iran, Syria (Assad), Iraq's majority is Shia.. ISIS is a Sunni-led and funded sectarian group.. The Middle East is burning and the West is following suit
Do you really think that nobody is pulling certain strings?.. Oh well
I agree AR, the Saudi's are trying to change the political balance in the Middle East - Syria, Yemen, Iraq - with their funding and influence, and at the same time destabilizing oil markets with their supply push.. They are very determined and know exactly what they are trying to achieve long-term, watching from a safe distance while the West waivers
The recovery may (or may not) be robust for low-debt competitors Ensco & Noble.. Seadrill & NADL may be BK by then
A+ for this management team, again, from this long-term shareholder
"New test results published today showed that dozens of diesel cars from multiple manufacturers fail to meet specified European emission targets. Vehicles from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo, and Jeep were all tested in real-world conditions — and all of them found severely wanting. The average Mercedes Benz produced at least 2.2x more NOx than the official Euro-5 level and 5x more than the ecological Euro-6 emission standard allows. Honda’s diesels emitted between 2.6x and 6x more NOx than allowed.
Mazda and Mitsubishi both failed the test as well. Out of 50 vehicles that supposedly met Euro-6 levels and 150 Euro-5 diesels, just five vehicles out of more than 200 emitted real-world particulate levels that matched their in-house lab tests. The difference between these manufacturers and VW, thus far, is that none of these other companies stand accused of using a so-called “defeat device” to hide their failures."
.. The US typically perceived Europe as having stronger consumer protections and tougher restrictions on pollution, but this is as clear a case of regulatory capture as you could ask for. The EU’s actual emissions and air quality are far in excess of what the law says because an obsolete and abused driving test has been kept as a gift to the automakers themselves. When the Guardian reached out to automakers to comment on the discrepancy between their real-world test results and the EU standard, virtually every single manufacturer stressed how important it was for them to comply with regulations. Mitsubishi had the audacity to note that “The NEDC (New European Driving Cycle test) was never intended to represent real-world driving.”
http://bit.ly/1SIy6CF
There is no quick fix, the emission standards have simply become too stringent too fast.
VW's R&D spending in 2013 alone was $13.5 billion. If they aren't even able to meet the current standards, you can be sure the same is the case for all other major car companies.
Time for the Fed to pull out the tube and let the patient get back to living a normal life..
Depends on your definition of same space I guess. RIGP is 100% offshore. SFL is far more diversified, and therefore a better overall play this last year
RIGP: three offshore rigs, no debt, and around 13% current yield
http://tinyurl.com/oaz...
SFL: four offshore rigs (chartered by SDRL, NADL, Apex), tankers, bulkers, container vessels, and around 10-11% dividend yield.
http://tinyurl.com/o39...
I still think RIGP and SFL were the best/safest plays for the last 1 - 1.5 years (slightly biased of course) in this space, but at the same time I feel increasingly tempted to re-enter Ensco, quality company with great management team.
Some of these stocks, except the high-debt ones, seem to be bottoming since the summer, very tempting..
Wow pretty impressive to say the least
There's more than enough demand for Saudi, Russian and Iranian oil produced at $5-$15 a barrel.. it simply means more trouble for US shale & Canadian oil sands
Rosneft (+5 mln bpd) & Surgutneftegaz Pref (+$30bln cash pile, no debt)
Glencore Xstrata is a steal at current levels IMO. I think even the most bearish of analysts Nomura has a 120 pence target, 70-90 pence seemed overdone. From personal experience it's been a profitable trade several times in the past, and after the recent sell-off it looked pretty attractive to re-enter when the market was basically throwing the baby out with the bath water.
The need to address their level of debt is clear, which they are tackling at the moment I believe, but underlying you can have little doubt about the inherent quality and long term value of their diversified asset base, and in my opinion equally important the significant benefit of Glencore's in-house trading division.
They did feel the need to put out a PR to set the record straight after Investec;
"Our business remains operationally and financially robust - we have positive cash flow, good liquidity and absolutely no solvency issues."
http://reut.rs/1KWlgL7