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  • Transocean's Value Proposition, Part Two: Profit Soars, Macondo Settlement On The Horizon [View article]
    From the M&A Call:

    "We also announced our discussions with a major oil company for the potential construction of 4 ultra-deepwater newbuild drillships, which we would expect to be backed by 10-year drilling contracts. We currently have a nonbinding letter of intent that outlines most of the commercial terms associated with this project, including an estimated capital investment of $3 billion or about $750 million per rig. Contract backlog associated with this newbuild opportunity is expected to be approximately $7.6 billion, representing 40 rig years of work. The implied day rate for each rig is $520,000.

    These newbuilds will be state-of-the-art, having capabilities beyond those of the existing worldwide fleet or the newbuilds currently under construction. The ships will be in enhanced DSME 12,000 design and will feature Transocean's patented dual activity drilling technology and an industry-leading hoisting capacity. They will also be equipped with a second BOP, and each rig will be outfitted to accommodate a future upgrade to a 20,000 psi BOP system once such a system is available from the pressure control OEMs.

    ...The 4-rig opportunity would provide profitable growth in a notoriously cyclical industry. This investment opportunity would support our asset strategy to expand and upgrade our ultra-deepwater fleet, improve the fleet mix and provide growth opportunities for the company. We would expect rig delivery to occur at approximately 6-month intervals beginning in late 2015.

    To support the financing of these potential newbuilds, on Monday we took advantage of extremely favorable market conditions and issued debt in the amount of $1.5 billion. In the unlikely event that we are unable to reach a final agreement with the customer, we will use these funds to pay down existing debt and for general corporate purposes."
    Sep 13 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $90 Billion Glencore-Xstrata Powerhouse To Go Ahead After Increased Offer [View article]
    Let's agree to disagree on iron ore. I think most of the arguments are presented in the article, not a lot more to add. For the near term I think all these guys are dealing with weakening commodity prices, and yes iron ore in particular has fallen sharply as China demand has weakened.

    BHP (http://bit.ly/GCee27) (http://bit.ly/FRxViR) is delaying development of an Aussie harbour for ore exports, and Fortescue (http://bit.ly/OrQtPE) is truly on the ropes. BHP seems to be focusing on its Canadian potash project after delaying other major spending plans.

    On the other hand, Glencore bought iron ore miner Bellzone's (BZM.L) (BZLNF.PK) share of output from the Forecariah mine last month. China International Fund, BZM's partner, has tag-along rights, so they may also sell to Glencore. Glencore is on the prowl for discounted assets, as usual..
    Sep 13 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $90 Billion Glencore-Xstrata Powerhouse To Go Ahead After Increased Offer [View article]
    Thanks Jon,

    Also familiar with Smith and MFC Industrial, as it's now called. I was invested in MFC when it was still called Terra Nova Royalty (http://bit.ly/PZuKKG), at the time KHD Humboldt Wedag was spun off in several tranches.

    I still remember it clearly, that was quite an exceptional situation which turned out very nicely indeed. I didn't see a whole lot of value left after the spin-off, so both the TTT and KHD positions were sold. Sounds like Smith is still up to his old ways!
    Sep 11 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Value Proposition, Part Two: Profit Soars, Macondo Settlement On The Horizon [View article]
    Thanks for the link Mercy.

    The market seems dissapointed that Transocean is merely getting $1.05 billion for selling the 38 older shallow-water rigs, but the fact is you didn't have many alternative buyers besides Shelf Drilling. The wide bid-ask spread for offshore drilling rigs has been the largest reason that this and other anticipated rig transactions had not yet been completed.

    Transocean held out for a higher price for about a year, selling off rigs one at a time, but finally took the private-equity offer to get the deal done. Book value of the sold rigs was $1.4 billion and most of the rigs had 30+ years of service.

    Very interesting twist that Seadrill's current CFO Esa Ikäheimonen will succeed Gregory Cauthen as Transocean’s Executive Vice President and CFO on November 15. Wonder who will replace him at SDRL. .

    Transocean is talking to an IOC about funding construction of the four new ultra-deepwater drillships (10-year contract). They also plan to borrow $500 million to $1 billion to fund deepwater expansion.

    Transocean will have about 90 rigs left, with 9 more lined up to be built if all goes as planned, so 100 incl rigs under construction.
    Sep 11 09:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Value Proposition, Part Two: Profit Soars, Macondo Settlement On The Horizon [View article]
    Seadrill's dividend indeed is very attractive, currenty also holding SDRL along with ESV, NE, and RIG. Should be noted that HSBC downgraded SDRL from overweight to neutral yesterday. Credit Suisse recently initiated coverage on Seadrill, setting a neutral rating and a $57.00 price target. Natixis Bleichroeder upgraded Seadrill from reduce to hold two weeks ago.

    The company isn't overweight because of its valuation compared to peers, and debt. SDRL is a very attractive dividend income stock, but you should always keep in the back of your mind that the generous dividend is partly used make sure the other 75% of Seadrill's shareholders, outside of Hemen (JF), continue to support the company’s high leverage strategy. Hemen uses the generous dividends to reinvest elsewhere. Rinse and repeat so to speak.

    Seadrill has a history of borrowing on a drilling rig as soon as it can so that it can invest in an additional rig, just like J.F. did with Frontline in shipping. In fairness, so far it has resulted in an impressive deepwater drilling fleet, but debt does expose you as a shareholder to additional risks compared to peers if we encounter another Macondo-like incident, or dayrates take a nosedive for another reason.

    But dayrates for deepwater and ultra-deepwater rigs will likely remain strong for the next few years given the favorable supply-demand picture supporting dayrates. Just keep an eye out for rising interest rates and rising operational costs, not just the revenue side.
    Sep 11 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $90 Billion Glencore-Xstrata Powerhouse To Go Ahead After Increased Offer [View article]
    Happy to discuss SDRL vs ESV under the Transocean-article (http://seekingalpha.co...), it's a question preoccupying the minds of many investors interested in drilling contractors.

    Just let me know your considerations and concerns in that comment section. Given your desired minimum dividend yield of 4%, I'm currently expecting you to be leaning towards Seadrill..
    Sep 11 05:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noble Corp. Set To Deliver Alpha? [View article]
    Valuentum,

    Interesting article, it provides a level of insight into valuation sometimes lacking in other articles. Your DCF-model extrapolates Noble's future performance based on parameters like FCF and capex between FY 2009-2011.

    The one issue with doing this with Noble is that 2010 and 2011 were out of the ordinary, and that seems to have affected (lowered) your 5-year and long-term projections. That's the risk/problem with running a valuation model with a 3Y FCF analysis, without talking about the business side, the reasons for the (temporary) slump in cash from operations, or the underlying decisions behind the increased capex.

    Noble, like SDRL, is transforming into offshore driller with rapidly expanding deepwater ambitions. Frontier was acquired in 2010 (adding quality deepwater assets), 2011 was the very year Noble made several billions in jackup and deepwater rig orders. Then you also had the Gulf moratorium affecting the company in H2 2010 and FY 2011, meaning 2011 especially was a low-water mark in terms of earnings. It should just be noted that the new rig deliveries are expected to result in EPS in the region of $7 by 2015.

    For clarity's sake, long NE, RIG, ESV, SDRL
    Sep 11 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $90 Billion Glencore-Xstrata Powerhouse To Go Ahead After Increased Offer [View article]
    A 4% dividend should be achievable in the next few years. The plan is to steer Xstrata, which is the fourth-largest diversified miner, from an acquisition-fuelled first decade into a new phase of organic growth. Expectations are that Glencore-Xstrata will be able to boost Xstrata's volumes by 50% by the end of 2014. Average operating costs are expected to go down by 20%.

    Of course Glencore isn't 'just' the world's largest commodities trading company, its mining presence is already quite substantial as well. You can start to imagine the huge presence this combined group has in the commodity markets and that will only grow going forward.

    Glencore-Xstrata will be delivering some 20 projects by 2014, which includes several major sites, also the $5.2 billion Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, and Koniambo nickel mine in New Caledonia.

    I would not necessarily recommend investors to go for the U.S. pinksheet listings of these two companies, if you are able to purchase the London-listed stocks through your brokerage account.

    For clarity's sake, the author is long GLEN.L and XTA.L, not GLCNF.PK and XSRAY.PK. This was also mentioned in the pre-edited article send to SA, but they edited this sentence out. Seeking Alpha is not able process non-U.S. symbols.
    Sep 11 02:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Exxon Mobil? Rosneft, The Biggest Oil Company You've Never Heard Of [View article]
    The thing is that Sechin told shareholders on June 20 that the company will be able to pay additional dividends for 2011 in his presentation at the annual general meeting of shareholders.

    It remains a bit odd that Rosneft shareholders were not able to approve total 2011 dividends of 7.53 rubles per share straight away on that day - instead of just the 3.45 rubles paid on August 19 -, especially if Rosneftegaz (the state) as majority shareholder is not willing or able to approve the additional 4.08 rubles outside a GM.

    Time will tell when we receive payment on the remaining 4.08 rubles for 2011, but it seems dividend payments of 25% of IFRS net profit are here to stay for ROSN:LSE
    Sep 4 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Exxon Mobil? Rosneft, The Biggest Oil Company You've Never Heard Of [View article]
    The state holds 75.16% in Rosneft through Rosneftegaz, so I would hope that "the powers that be" won't decide to delay payment of the additional 2011 dividends until then, as AGM approval = Russian Government approval when it comes to Rosneft.

    http://bit.ly/N9UGpA > "The Company also sent a request to the Russian Government on preparation of instructions to adopt the decisions on 2011 dividend amount increase up to 25% of the Company’s IFRS net profit."

    http://bit.ly/OK6SLL > "Rosneft shareholders were given the good news at the beginning of the meeting that Russia’s largest oil company plans to pay additional dividends for 2011. In his presentation, Rosneft President and Chairman of the Management Board Igor Sechin told shareholders that the company will be able to pay additional dividends for last year and that total payments will reach the level recently recommended by Russian President Vladimir Putin of 25% of IFRS net profit.

    At the AGM, it was proposed that Rosneft shareholders approve 2011 dividends at 3.45 rubles per share, which is 25% more than was paid in 2010. This corresponds with a total pay-out of 36.564 billion rubles or 11.6% of IFRS net profit. The value of additional dividends could be a further 43.2 billion rubles. As such, total dividends could reach 79.8 billion rubles or 7.53 rubles per share.

    Through these pay-outs, Rosneft will pioneer large dividend payments. For example, Gazprom is planning to pay 25% of RAS net profit, which totalled 879.6 billion rubles, while IFRS net profit was significantly higher at 1.307 trillion rubles. Sberbank shareholders approved 2011 dividends at 15% of IFRS net profit or 15.3% of RAS, while VTB will pay out 38% of RAS net profit or just some 10% of IFRS net profit."
    Sep 4 03:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Exxon Mobil? Rosneft, The Biggest Oil Company You've Never Heard Of [View article]
    a_karmalito@rosneft.ru [mailto:a_karmalito@ro...

    The dividend record date is established as per meeting of the Board of Directors of Oil Company Rosneft. Currently there is no information regarding the date and/or time of such meeting.

    Additionally, the Board of Directors approves the agenda for AGM’s, which includes the issue on dividend amount, form and time of payment to be voted upon by the General Meeting of Shareholders.

    Information regarding Board of Directors meetings can be found at http://bit.ly/Tc9BQZ (Russian only), or http://bit.ly/Tc9C7f

    Should you have any further questions I will be glad to answer them.

    Kind regards,

    Alexey Karmalito

    Senior Specialist
    Shareholders affairs Division
    Sep 3 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons Not To Buy Drilling Stock Transocean [View article]
    Your title mentions 2 reasons why not to invest in Transocean. To counter I would submit 3 reasons (links) why you should consider investing in Transocean:

    Q2 Earnings Call Transcript: http://bit.ly/N1y0ry
    Latest Fleet Status Summary, July 2012: http://bit.ly/NZ0xPT
    Latest Fleet Update Summary, August 2012: http://bit.ly/NzaIdW
    Aug 30 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Don't Think SeaDrill's Dividend Is Sustainable [View article]
    The article is lacking in substance, pure and simple. It certainly doesn't do anything to live up to the title.

    Seadrill (http://bit.ly/u1d6zb) has 12 semi-submersibles, 4 drillships, 16 jack-ups, and finally 16 tender rigs in operation at this time. 48 units total.

    Seadrill currently has 2 semi-submersibles, 6 drillships, 5 jack-ups, and 5 tender rigs under construction this. 18 units total.

    Given a plethora of long-term contract announcements, tight supply, rising dayrates, and demand in deepwater and ultra-deepwater sector being driven by continuing success worldwide in exploration drilling, Seadrill will no doubt earn their target of $4 billion annual EBITDA by 2015, when the new units are in operation.

    I'm certainly not a fan of the leveraged balance sheet, but for the short- and medium-term SDRL's dividend is perfectly safe. Unless you have a Macondo-like incident, as experienced by Transocean (http://bit.ly/oeANwU), of course, but that's always a risk when investing in contract drillers.
    Aug 30 10:20 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Value Proposition, Part Two: Profit Soars, Macondo Settlement On The Horizon [View article]
    Hi Chicago,

    Agree with you on the risk of too much debt on any balance sheet, but I do think that SDRL is a better long-term pick than DO. Seadrill currently has something like 46 rigs with 18 ships and rigs under construction, 8 of which already chartered out on long-term contracts. It seems they are also negotiating for additional newbuilds.

    Q2 2012 earnings were in line with forecasts. EBITDA was $634 million compared to $579 million in Q2 2011, the mean forecast was $639 million. SDRL's target is $4 billion annual EBITDA by 2015, when the new units are in operation.

    SDRL sold 300 million shares in SapuraKencana Petroleum for around $200 million during Q2 and still holds 319.5 million shares. The $4 billion GoM-deal involves 3 rigs for 19 years starting in Q4 2013.
    Aug 29 11:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Value Proposition: Leading Driller Stays Afloat By Going Deepwater [View article]
    Hi Budavar,

    Just got back from my honeymoon in Northern Italy. I cannot help you with your posting issue unfortunately. I don't believe it's possible for anyone but yourself or SA-editors to alter or delete postings, but best to check with SA directly. Feel free to re-post your comment!

    BR,
    Ramon
    Aug 29 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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