Ricard

Dubai: Gauging the Impact

This rhymes perilously close to the Bear Stearns events of 2007-2008. No ideas on the extent of exposure, possible lead domino to fall, high profile case of profligacy.

Three more Case-Shiller-based measures - price-to-rent, price-to-income and real prices - give hints that home prices may still have a ways to go to the bottom.

Maybe not hyperinflation, but double digit inflation, sure.

That would also be a positive development, in that it will get more 'underwater' Americans into a more advantageous situation.


On Nov 24 02:14 PM MarketGuy wrote:

> I see the eye of a storm in those charts. With rising unemployment,
> credit defaults, foreclosures, etc this event is only half over.
> Wait until hyperinflation kicks in a few years down the road too.
> No false hope here.

Three more Case-Shiller-based measures - price-to-rent, price-to-income and real prices - give hints that home prices may still have a ways to go to the bottom.

The charts are IMHO actually a positive development. We are nowhere near the bubble levels of 2-3 years ago, although one could make the argument we are a bit above the mean. Regardless, it's easy to see that prices have fallen to a manageable level.

bbro also made a really good point about affordability. Perhaps taking that into account, things are OK right now.

Pros and Cons of the South Korea ETF

Well, something to think about regarding Samsung is that it IS 20% of the Korean economy. More than likely, it will be the last pillar to fall if the Korean economy hits the skids.

If you're bullish on Korea, it would pay to be even more bullish on Samsung. It has a reputation in Korea that resembles Apple's in America.

Is the Market Reversal Already Happening?

Good article, good reality check. This expected-inflation-rel... bull run can only go so far without more telling signs of real inflation.

Regarding your points:

1) Haven't seen this. Most number-crunchers pin the P/E ratio between 18 and 25. Where are you getting your number?

5) One thing to remember (at least about China) is that their stimulus package was an enormous percentage of their GDP, and that their currency reserves are a good half a year's worth of GDP (compared to our national debt of 100% of GDP). This is huge, and the effects of their current stimulus (and any future attempts) will on a whole be much more effective than anything we will be able to muster.

Things to consider when picking an online broker.

I'm also very satisfied with Fidelity.

I also have a ScotTrade account, with which I'm also very satisfied. By far the most important thing to me is the fee structure, and Scot makes it enticingly simple, with almost no hidden fees of any sort. Many institutions could learn a lot from how Scot treats its customers.

The only qualm I have with both institutions is the abhorrent pricing on options trading. Not only are the spreads ridiculous at times (not their fault), the per contract fee comes dangerously close to a double digit percentage of principle committed. It makes me want to switch to IB, if not for their minimal trading limits.

Regarding tools, I'm satisfied with just the S&P STARS reports. "Real" research should involve 10Ks and digging through the accounting statements along with the qualitative elements (news and etc) - the STARS reports give an investor a good start to see what else they may want to look at regarding the company in question. No research report besides your own should determine how you invest.

E*Trade Takeover Chatter: How Should an Investor Respond?

As someone holding LEAPs at 2.5, I am a bit apprehensive about a merger at this time. If it is forced, I'll need a price above 2.90 to break even on the calls. Given the 1.65 price of the stock right now, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

I'd much rather ETFC organically grow its way out of this mess, and get to its justifiable market price around $3 - $3.5 THEN have this takeover happen. A 20% premium above that would place it around $3.5 - $4.25.

Ten Reasons I'm Buying Activision Blizzard

I disagree. They're shipping Starcraft II in three parts so that they can book three times the revenue, with even fatter margins.

Then, they can release expansions on each of these three segments, in a grand experiment to see if they really can ruin a franchise with a nearly religious following of fanatics by price gouging.

They need to have each and every segment more or less aligned with the other segments before pushing even the first segment out the door, all with the same graphics engine, and with all three races intact (or whatever they are planning). The fact that they are splitting it into three pieces does not mean that they are given themselves time to perfect their product. Blizzard would ruin their good name if the second segment with, say, the Zerg, replaced half the units you saw in the first segment. However, I'm guessing they will ruin their good name plenty by charging full price for 1/3 of a game.


On Nov 18 01:09 PM Asif Suria wrote:

> @Shaftsinker I am well aware of Blizzard's track record of not shipping
> products on time. A game that I personally looking forward to called
> Starcraft Ghost was scrapped altogether and I addressed this in my
> original article about Activision Blizzard last year. That said they
> were originally planning on launching SC2 in time for Christmas this
> year but decided to move it to first half 2010. I think the primary
> reason they are splitting the game into three parts is to try and
> ship it out without pushing the release date out by years. They are
> also making changes to Battle.net to accommodate WOW as well as the
> new Starcraft.

Can Options Spikes Be a Coincidence?

"And one other thing: if you did have inside information that 3Com was being bought by Nokia, you’d make more money simply buying the stock than you would buying the options. The only reason to buy the options is if you simply don’t have the cash to buy the stock."

This statement is incorrect. The main reason for using options over stocks is to LEVERAGE the cash you have on hand. This LEVERAGE is what makes options trading more lucrative when presented with 'sure thing' opportunities such as these insider trading transactions. The LEVERAGE will almost always ensure you make a LOT MORE MONEY than just buying the stock, given the same amount of initial capital.

Chinese Wind Power Plant Coming to U.S. Soil

Great comment.

1) Perhaps I am not seeing your point here. If the Chinese invest in a project in America using American dollars today, it will prove to be a misstep economically if they do decouple the yuan, as future profit streams would come to them in the form of devalued dollars. That leads to your point #2:

2) Agreed that this move seems to be much more politically motivated than by other factors.


On Nov 18 05:33 PM Mark Bern wrote:

> John - This is a very positive story, so I don't want to ruin it
> with a negative spin. One thing I do wonder is that if the Chinese
> are interested in making investments in manufacturing on US soil
> there must be a reason. Two reason, I think.
>
> 1. If China decouples the yuan from the US$ their investments here
> may become cheaper for them than investments in their homeland.<br/>
>
> 2. The obvious political gains they make with such a huge project
> could open doors for them to make additional investments in the future
> with less scrutiny and questions about why now.
>
> After all, they want to make money from US consumption, one way or
> the other, so they can use their profits to continue their efforts
> to increase domestic demand. A third motive could be to shore up
> their biggest customer through a more direct investment approach
> to ensure that we are able to pay the interest on their Treasury
> investments. They need our economy to strengthen for their economy
> to run on all cylindars. The Chinese are not stupid.

Join a Seeking Alpha User Group

I think by far the most appealing aspect of this site is its ability to attract an informed opinion.

Second, the opinions it attracts are diverse - if I read the WSJ, I tend to get what is increasing a far right opinion on business news. T'was not always so...


Outside of the content, I like the various features, such as the stock talks and instablog. Once I got used to them, I found the 'journal-like' aspect of those services to be very attractive. I've also noticed I can just do a search either on SA or even on Google with some key words, combine it with my profile name, and voila - I can easily track articles that I've responded to (and thus I've found interesting). I've found this to be the most powerful feature when it comes to blogging on a site like SA (I don't have my own proprietary blog).

As far as the user group is concerned, I'm a bit of a Luddite myself. What exactly would that entail?

Thanks, keep up the good work.

Why You Can't Short This Market: The Expectation Ratio

1) "Much like Japan, we cannot create the foundation for a new secular bull without dealing with the underlying problem of debt. On the bright side, we are 10 years into our bear market. "

There are a couple fallacies here. Yes, we are 10 years into our bear market, but the original 'bear' was not fueled by excessive debt. In that sense, the current debt-related recession is a very young phenomenon. I'd be apprehensive about lumping the dot-com bust with the housing bust just because the Dow and S&P say so. What is encouraging about our scenario is that we implemented QE immediately, whereas Japan waited 12 years before doing the same. That, and our asset bubble is completely dwarfed by what Japan went through.

2) "In terms of my micro outlook I continue to maintain the position that the fundamentals no longer support the v-shaped recovery that equities are pricing into the market."

I don't think the fundamentals ever supported a v-shaped recovery. What equities are pricing in, IMHO, is a nominal recovery where GDP shrinks significantly, one we don't feel due to dollar devaluation and inflation scenarios.

Best Performing Stocks of the Decade

LOL, HANS...almost impossible to predict the 'monster' surge.

TD Ameritrade-E*Trade Deal Needs to Happen

I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

AMTD has cold feet due to ETFC's 'problems'. What's interesting is that once those problems go away, ETFC's market cap will probably exceed AMTD's cash hoard. If they buy then...well, ETFC shareholders (like myself) will certainly be amicable to the 'right price'.

Also, including the convertibles, ETFC's current market cap is around $4.5bn.

L-3 Communications: Growing Dividend, Priced at a Bargain

I bought this stock several years ago and flipped it for a 50% gain.

It's high leverage and zero tang book, balanced by an earnings machine fueled by both acquisitions and organic growth. I haven't looked at it since the first "L", Frank Lanza, died.

I guess the story has changed little since then.