Ricard

What's the Fair Value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Please change the title of this article. Not only is it misleading, it is somewhat offensive as well.

Aluminum's Future: A Mixed Bag

I would think that anyone long aluminum should no longer be looking at AA...ACH is the up-and-comer. China has given numerous hints that this company is tied to its political fortunes. That means that if you are long China, then ACH would be an obvious bet.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

What I don't get about the 200 day moving average is why people use it as a stock buying indicator.

Stocks are a leading indicator for the market, and something like the 200 day moving average is about as close to the definition of a 'lagging indicator' as you can get. If I used technicals at all (and I'm glad I don't), I would correlate breaking 200 day MA to a sell signal. BTW, I am long C, and not because of technical factors.


On Aug 20 12:33 PM Marc Courtenay wrote:

> I did want to disclose that after I wrote and posted this article,
> I decided late Wednesday (right before the closing bell) to nibble
> on some shares of Citigroup (seekingalpha.com/symbol/c) at
> $4.12. Today I'm glad I did since C has broken above its 200-day
> Moving Average. My thesis in the article still stands, and if I get
> my 20% or so profit on C I will take my profits with gratitude. Knowing
> when to sell is harder than knowing when to buy in my estimation.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

I also have made a very handsome profit since the 'troubles' began late last year. However, it is exactly the fact that I have made these profits that has me worried right now.

Fundamentals for a significant minority (if not outright majority) of stocks were excellent around the new year, but now, I'm hard-pressed to find any real deals out there. Or, at least, deals that I have already acquired in the past several months.

Good luck with your trades.


On Aug 19 10:36 PM Novice Trader wrote:

> I'll maintain my trailing stop of 8% across the board. You guys can
> jump into the market at anytime. When you do, I might be willing
> to sell you some of shares that are up 500%+ (GNW for example). :-)
>
>
> Frankly speaking, I enjoy reading your pessimistic perspectives.
> As I've said before in a different post, it gives me (and others
> like me) perspective, especially after watching my stocks go up day
> after day and then watching Cramer.
>
> You guys offer a good balance to the positive that I take in everyday
> and your insight keeps me on my toes, leaving me to be ever so watchful
> of whether or not I need to sell or tighten my trailing stop. <br/>
>
> However, sometimes I do (honestly) wonder if many of you aren’t just
> pissed off at the world that you’ve missed this sustained rally and
> all you know how to do is complain and/or short the market. I honestly
> wonder this sometimes. Perhaps I’m naieve, perhaps it’s due to me
> being a novice. I suppose only time will tell. Hopefully none of
> us will get hurt waiting to find out.

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

Every once in a while Cramer will say something intelligent. Then, there are times like this when you wonder whether or not the drugs his psychiatrist prescribed to him actually went down the hatch.

Alcoa Sheds Costs, Should Benefit Greatly Once Recovery Begins

You're pumping the wrong stock - AA is the high-cost producer.

ACH is better on nearly every valuation metric. Furthermore, China is poised to become for aluminum what Japan and Korea mean for steel - it already is the largest producer in the world, and ACH is the government-mandated monopoly to represent the industry. AA, like US Steel, probably will have its place as the local producer, but it will not be a global force as it once was. Of course, anything can happen and AA may cut costs to compete, but probably not enough to compete with China on most fronts.

The Dogs of the Dow Can Keep You Out of the Doghouse

One word:

WOOF!!!