Ricard

Three Myths About Business in China

Perhaps it is the media bias in the US, but I will need a lot more than a well-argued, but unsubstantiated article, to convince me that these three points are not true.

Perhaps the point is that the extent to which these points are no longer wholly dominating is significant. If that is the case, I can subscribe to that point of view.

Finally:

"Gone are the days when knowing the right people guaranteed riches."

Those days are never gone. The right people will always guarantee success. That's what makes them the right people.

How Apple and iPhone Blew It in China

I've suspected that pirating will take its toll on the iPhone in China, and it seems that has already proven to be the case, given the cracked phone phenomena.

In order for the 'official' roll-out to be successful, they'll have to differentiate between it and the cracked phone. Seems according to this article, that will be one tall order. It didn't even touch upon the edge the cracked phones have as far as wi-fi.

Finally, for Apple, what about the Apps store? How profitable has it been for them to run its Apps store servicing 3.5 mil cracked phones? People smart enough to get such devices are probably smart enough to circumvent 'proper' channels in getting accompanying software. I don't see a savvy Beijing social-elite able to pony up close to $1000 US for a cell phone being any different.

In this sense, the iPhone has already debuted in China, and as the author pointed out, it has already been a huge success popularity-wise. Now comes the also-ran 'official' Unicom iPhone. It seems from the article that Apple, due to the delayed roll-out, missed its chance to 'properly' profit from the iPhone's potential in China. Of course, that's assuming it ever had the chance to do so.

Cramer's Mad Money - The Correction Is upon Us (10/28/09)

"The 5-7% correction Cramer has been predicting seems to be here..."

I can predict that the sun is going to rise tomorrow, but that wouldn't be saying much either.

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

Great article.

"As long as rates remain low, liquidity high and the animal spirits alive, there is a risk that the scenario I described plays out. "

This is the same conclusion I've reached in the past several months. Our economy is centrally planned by the Fed, and as long as 'god' is good, then greed will reign.

I also agree with your assessment that (attractively priced) small caps may have quite a ways to go as well. Along that vein, I've taken a large position in ETFC - I find it to be one of the last opportunities left to profit off the fallacious 'doomsday scenario' from Oct 08. At first I thought it to be highly speculative, but upon finishing my DD, it looks more and more attractive as a solid value play. I'll post something up early next week.

Why Palm Shorts Will Be Disappointed

LOL, my Palm shorts expire in two days. Luckily, it was a very small position.

I'd like to agree with LaChic, but Marc Faber has a good point:

Never underestimate the power of printing money.

I'd like to point out that a major revenue driver, as well as a major source of customer satisfaction(euphoria), is the Apps store. Apple is following a model it has pioneered since the iPod - cornering content through hardware innovation. I remain unconvinced of your long arguments.

Good article nonetheless.

Five Reasons Apple’s iPhone Will Succeed in China

1) There are millions of people here in our country that speak French, German, or Spanish. Yet, all the apps here are in English. To Trent Hauck - I acknowledge your point, but please look at 2)

2) There ARE a lot of smart developers in China. Too smart. Smart enough to figure out how to keep the money that should have went to Apple (or in Trent Hauck's case, American software developers). They don't have to worry about intellectual property rights like we have to here.

3) Apple is a foreign brand, selling in a very nationalistic country.

4) 600m people are not going to be buying an iPhone. Apple will probably be happy with just 6m.

Still, I realize that I may be right and it may not matter. Apple and CHU's stock may go up just on pure euphoria.

Ball's in your court.


On Oct 14 12:45 PM VK9141 wrote:

> Ricard, in response:
>
> Point 1 - so are you saying out of 600m subscribers (possibly relatively
> wealthy, educated people) none speak English?
>
> 1 and 2: there are a lot of smart Chinese speaking developers throughout
> the US and the western world who could easily develop such apps from
> outside China.
>
> Given this, point 3 should follow.
>
> I think it could be big. And how fantastic that the US potentially
> has a blockbuster product it can export to China (and not the other
> way round). Way to go Apple!

Five Reasons Apple’s iPhone Will Succeed in China

This article ignores the most fundamental aspect of the iPhone - the App Store.

1) Apple will have to get an entirely new set of developers to tag along. None of the app store's voluminous English language apps will be of much use in China

2) These developers will have to be trusted not to pirate, or be subject to pirating, in the country with the most notorious reputation for lax intellectual property rights

3) Apple will somehow have to turn these apps into $$$.

Good luck with that. This is a non-story.

50 Four-Day September Expiration Option Ideas

If I were you, I would exit C now.

online.wsj.com/article...

Good luck with your trades.

Buy Apple Long, Sell Palm Short

Not sure about the AAPL long argument. It is priced well beyond its cash hoard. I do agree about its management's execution, well done on painting the picture.

On PALM, I'd say that if you're gonna short this stock, do it big. Buy out of money options expiring this winter. This company's been a dog ever since it got bought out by 3Com (another dog). They both have the same fleas.

38 Reasons the Google IPO Isn't the Big Deal Some Are Making It Out to Be

That should say 'projects like google anything outside of search'...dunno why SA's text editor can't process a simple like like that...


On Aug 20 01:50 PM Ricard wrote:

> Now GOOG is heralded as a white-hot category killer...IMHO it's only
> a matter of time until the magic fades - projects like google-anything-outsid...
> better return $$$ before fickle investors (those that buy into the
> great fads of the era) get bored.

38 Reasons the Google IPO Isn't the Big Deal Some Are Making It Out to Be

I totally agree with this comment's conclusion. eBay was hot, white hot, being one of the only dot-coms that actually posted consistent earnings that grew yoy. This may sound boring and stodgy but most dot-coms couldn't even meet this minimum criteria. Now that the growth has hit a wall, so has eBay stock.

Now GOOG is heralded as a white-hot category killer...IMHO it's only a matter of time until the magic fades - projects like google-anything-outsid... better return $$$ before fickle investors (those that buy into the great fads of the era) get bored.


On Aug 20 01:03 PM Emilio wrote:

> I have to agree with Mr. Donkey Kong.
> I also want to remark that on the 5th year anniversary of going public,
> eBay was up over 1100%. eBay went public in September, 1998 at $53.50
> and in September, 2003 it's price was mostly the same $54,80....but
> after 3 splits (3x1, 2x1, and 2x1). And you have to consider that
> it had to face Internet Bubble collapse.
> As you probably remember, eBay used to be called "the next big thing"
> (just like Google) and look at eBay now....

Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors

"Buffett has said that it is much better to buy a good company at a fair price rather than a fair company at a good price, but my performance to date and results from screens and tests I’ve performed show that maybe Buffett got it backwards."

I'm not sure where you are going with this quote. If you are saying that AAPL is a 'good company at a fair price', please demonstrate a 'fair company at a good price'. It's quite possible that despite your misgivings about AAPL, it may out-perform 'fair companies' even at today's lofty valuations.

BTW, I am short AAPL. I think this is a good company at a lofty price.

What Drives Consumer Adoption of New Technologies?

I think it also needs to deliver a perceived benefit. New technology may sounds fascinating, but if it's not useful, geeky. I think this is why the Iphone is not perceived (too strongly, at least) to be a geek gadget.

Computers had been around for decades before they became a solid consumer product. Once people got around to graphics based word processing (MSWord vs Wordstar) and an OS that did not require programming familiarity/expertise (Windows vs DOS), the computer suddenly flooded every store and household in town.

Apple and RIM: The Spoils Go to the Smartest

I just noticed that this is a SA 'editor's pick' as well. Wow.

Apple and RIM: The Spoils Go to the Smartest

I do not follow the cellphone market. I have no investments related to it, although I used to. However, even with my lack of familiarity, I can recognize how this article is completely distorting the size of this market, for what reason I do not know, nor do I care to know.

Here's Wikipedia's opening paragraph on Nokia:

Nokia Corporation (pronounced [ˈnɔkiɑ] in Finnish) (OMX: NOK1V, NYSE: NOK, FWB: NOA3) is a Finnish multinational communications corporation that is headquartered in Keilaniemi, Espoo, a city neighbouring Finland's capital Helsinki.[4] Nokia is focused on wireless and wired telecommunications, with 128,445 employees in 120 countries, sales in more than 150 countries and global annual revenue of EUR 50.7 billion and operating profit of 5.0 billion as of 2008.[1][2] It is the world's largest manufacturer of mobile telephones: its global device market share was about 37% in Q1 2009, down from 39% in Q1 2008 and unchanged from Q4 2008.[3] Nokia produces mobile phones for every major market segment and protocol, including GSM, CDMA, and W-CDMA (UMTS). Nokia's subsidiary Nokia Siemens Networks produces telecommunications network equipment, solutions and services. Navteq is part of Nokia's strategy of focusing on mobile navigation.[5]

50 billion euros in annual revenue. Now look again at the first chart of this 'article'. Even if the US market only accounted for only 1% of Nokia's revenue (which it doesn't - it accounts for a lot more), you'd get something closer to one billion, not 20 million, for Nokia ALONE.

Really...the quality of this article is shameful.

On Jun 01 02:02 PM Almoney100 wrote:

> I agree with Ricard here seeing that the whole cell phone industry
> was over 300 million for fiscal year 2008.