Ricard

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

This is an excellent breakdown of the day's news.

I've never paid much attention to this column, but maybe I should in the future.

Intel's Eurofine

LOL, no one has a rebuttal? No one?? I'm still smiling...

Intel's Eurofine

I own INTC stock. I believe this will be at worst a small setback. I see a company with a balance sheet profile similar to MSFT, but with a product mix that will probably be much more robust in the next decade or two. Unlike MSFT, INTC has a sterling track record in product innovation, and in cooperating with other large companies in strategic sectors.

Barriers to entry are huge, and INTC is holding nearly all the keys to the kingdom for this industry, which will be one of the most important in the world for this century. IMHO, of course.

INTC will be for the 21st century what GM and GE were in the 20th century. If anyone thinks they can drill any holes in this argument, I'm all ears.

Will Intel's New Processor Be a Game-Changer?

If indeed AMD and Sun aren't able the catch up, this may indeed spell another golden age for INTC processors. Without serious competition, they can then re-charge serious prices. That's fine for me - I own more INTC stock than I do computers and etc.

Big Debt and Big Returns Could Be Spurring This Rally

I don't think CIEN deserves to be lumped with this crowd. I sold JDSU to add to my CIEN stake due to better financials, both income statement and balance sheet-wise. Fact is, it was posting a healthy profit before July of last year for a good six straight quarters, and given those earnings figures, is a downright steal at these prices. This translates to a full recovery from the dot-com bust IMHO. It has enough CASH on hand to retire its debt if it so chooses, but otherwise has years before its next maturity in which to weather this storm. It's holding quite well compared to competitors such as Nortel or ALU - the last earnings statement corroborates this viewpoint.

I realize that it's in your 2nd best decile of balance sheet performers, but I don't think it deserves to be lumped in a crowd to include BofA, Citi, and MBIA.

Mean reversion for this stock should be around $2/share pre-reverse split, or around $15. That would take it to the low that it reached in the dot-com bust, when it was hemmoraging capital. Tertiary industries such as Ciena's have been unduly hit by the outflow of capital in the past year.

Cramer's Mad Money - Madoff Is a Serial Killer (1/8/09)

I am not a day trader - this article appeared on my watch-list due to CIEN. From a long standpoint, CIEN is a great stock to dollar-cost-average down. If it reaches 5 again, I will sell puts to go double long.

Four Dying Silicon Valley Companies

Nice to hear some conventional wisdom during these times. Especially agreed on Palm and AMD.

Question for you: What do you think about GRMN? My guess is that they are still well capitalized, but do you see them going the way of PALM? I still kick myself for not shorting that and (unrelated) SBUX last year.

Please post more "no-brainers" if for nothing else a sanity check.


On Dec 21 04:15 PM Joel West wrote:

> Sorry about the tickers — that happens at the copy desk, not by the
> author.
>
> I don't forget that IBM was in trouble — I teach this class in my
> corporate strategy class. The difference is, IBM got a good CEO who
> had a real strategy and held people accountable. Perhaps Yahoo and
> Sun will someday have both as well. (As for Palm and AMD, they look
> like a losing hand that would be hard for anyone to win with).<br/>
>
> I would agree this is a commentary on conventional wisdom, which
> is why I posted it to my blog (which is more homey and personal than
> the SA website). Whether it's interesting enough to run by Seeking
> Alpha (they pick up 3-4 of my 10+ posts/week) is up to the editors
> — if you don't think it was substantial enough to be worth picking,
> please let them know.
>
> Joel
>

Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's

@this comment string:

This is essentially saying that tech is maturing. Perhaps...IMHO, it all depends on how bandwidth hungry we all get. I agree that HDTV is reaching the "who cares" point, but what about live video streaming? True video on demand? This alone would require an exponential infrastructure commitment, i.e., another tech boom, and it is not even imaginative. I think tech has hit a big pothole, but I wouldn't discount it 5-10 years out. Else, I agree that it will probably get hit a lot harder than most people currently predict in the short run.


On Dec 22 11:15 AM Red Green wrote:

> LilBob is exactly right. Not just tech but all products and services.
> How many people would like an automobile that is priced economically
> and get good mileage. No GPS, no side airbags, (in fact, make airbags
> optional for those who want them)--a heater, A/C, steering wheel
> and gas pedal. I'd take it over the expensive status symbol cars
> of today. This economic collapse is going to change the way a lot
> of people think and look at the world--or course, there are going
> to be some who will demand government step in and take more from
> those who earn it and give it to the deadbeats. Behold what is about
> to come.

Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's

Correction - AAPL WAS a good short. Was at 175 just a couple of months ago...


On Dec 21 05:05 PM sr9web wrote:

> Looks like AAPL might be a good short...