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Ricardo Espinosa

 
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  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    Yesterday was a great shakeout of weak hands holding USO or futures.
    Still long USO via short puts sold yesterday in the midst of the panic.
    Buy fear, sell greed.
    Oct 1 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: Learn The Success Secret Of All Great Value Investors: Part 2 [View article]
    Excellent article, especially the Graham quotes, they ring true now more than ever when stocks are extending their valuation multiples. Great read.
    Sep 23 12:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Share Valuation [View article]
    It is feasible, as you can see on the "Pessimistic Scenario" that $55-56 is a feasible price, but at that level, with $2 dividend per share, at 3.6% dividend, I would be a buyer with both hands. The downside when (if) that level is achieved would be very limited. I hope the stock gets punished hard soon, but it seems the price is stabilizing and yesterday´s action got all the weak hands out of the stock. Let´s see what happens from here to the end of the year.
    Still holding and yesterday I sold $LVS put spreads which are now Out-of-the-money.
    Sep 4 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Share Valuation [View article]
    I am waiting for $65 to buy more, maybe with tomorrow's GDP numbers we might get it. If not, I will still keep the long position. At $65, the dividend yield alone would be 3.08% (because of the $2 per share current dividend per year).

    I think anything above a 3% dividend yield (because of the lower price) would be absurd not to buy, unless a serious issue with the future cash flows of the business were in jeopardy. I, in the meantime, will be selling puts while the stock is below $70.
    Aug 27 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Fund Benefiting From Backwardation [View article]
    Thanks for the info Ivan, I recently went long USO because of its oversold condition and it held its fibonacci pivot at 34.69. Although the rebound might be temporary, so is my investment.
    Aug 26 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Share Valuation [View article]
    The effects of the St. Regis hotel are not addressed, along with the ancillary revenue streams like the shopping malls in order to have a more conservative valuation in case the company's gaming (VIP and mass market) cash flows don't materialize as planned. That's also why I use a 10% discount rate for all my investments, it's not their WACC but MY hurdle rate.

    I adressed the growth of the Macau market:

    "Macao is the largest gaming market in the world and the only market in China to offer legalized casino gaming. According to Macao government statistics, annual gaming revenues reached $45.3 billion in 2013, an 18.5% increase over 2012."

    This means a market share of around 17.6% in the Macao market, considering the company's revenues in Macao in 2013 of $7.97 billion (from the company's 10-k) and the Macao government statistics taken from the same filing." End quote.

    I share your views on LVS increasing its market share, especially once the Parisian Macao is completed in late 2015.
    Regarding CAPEX, for maintenance CAPEX, which includes all the expenses that the company incurrs to replenish its assets each year, I used a growing $1 billion per year, depending on the DCF scenario, plus the remaining +$4 billion to finish constructing and begin operating the Parisian Macao for 2014 and 2015 only.

    Hope this helped clarify some of your doubts, cheers.

    Ricardo.
    Aug 23 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Share Valuation [View article]
    IF Japan gets to open up to gambling. In a culture like Japan, I doubt it, and if it happens, it will still take years for them to be up and running at full occupancy. I don't quite see them as a direct competitor quite yet, but thanks for the comment.
    Aug 22 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    All fundamental analysis aside, I shorted $TSLA 255/265 call spreads, now that they gained around $360 per contract, I rolled down to 245/265, mainly to hedge against this week´s events.
    The market has been advancing very fast and I have been way too long for the past few days, gotta protect those gains!

    Their cars are great (if they don´t explode), but yeah, the valuation is way ahead of itself, but the market will stay irreverent longer than you or I can stay solvent.
    Stay hedged!
    Aug 19 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Imposing Minimum Unit Pricing On Alcohol Helps Curb Alcoholism  [View instapost]
    Maybe in the UK...in Helsinki, even with very aggressive taxes on alcohol (making bottles cost double or triple its regular price), all the finnish do is take a ferry to Tallinn, take their car and fill it up with bottles and beer for the rest of the year (or months, they DO drink really heavily).
    Aug 6 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon EPS in-line, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Surprise, surprise. Overoptimism strikes again!
    Aug 5 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa and Amazon weigh on averages [View news story]
    Finally Amazon is being started to be dropped like the expensive stock it is...took years, it was making me think this day would never come.

    "The market can stay irreverent longer than you can stay solvent".
    Jul 25 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A red flag on Wal-Mart's U.S. sales? [View news story]
    $92.50 per share based on what? Its earnings or expectations would need to go up +20%...please ellaborate on your calculations for your price target.
    Jul 8 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    Hold your horses, this is the FIRST quarter of declining GDP (annualized). So no recession yet, unless the release on July 30th for Q2 2014 is also negative.

    Q4 2013 GDP was +2.6%, Q1 2014's GDP was first estimated at -1%, then re-stated to -2.9% because "the increase in personal consumption
    expenditures (PCE) was smaller than previously estimated, and the decline in exports was larger than previously estimated"...

    Link: http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y
    Jun 25 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Holdings Ltd.: The Gold Standard In The Retail Sector [View article]
    In a DCF scenario, with revenues doubling by 2018 and maintaining margins, discounting growth CapEx, KORS would be worth around $85-100 if the growth "normalizes" below 10% by 2020.
    EPV says KORS is worth around $86 with $2 billion EBITDA (double what is has).
    Price/Cash flow is 29, while COH has 8.
    So yes, market is expecting high growth from KORS (double in 4 years) and only 1% revenue growth for COH forever.
    If you disagree, go long COH or short KORS. I will sell COH puts for Nov, probably 35 strike, with a 20% annualized yield or being forced to buy.
    KORS is attractive for me around 70. Above 90 there is not much margin of safety.
    Jun 23 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE Seeks To Make Big Deal; We Still Like Shares [View article]
    Excellent work Valuentum, very clearly presented, saved me a lot of work. Keep up the good job. Going long GE with deep ITM call spread.
    Apr 29 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
458 Comments
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