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Ricardo Espinosa

 
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  • Jesus, Bob Dylan And Expected Returns: 8 Indicators Of Long-Term Equity Returns [View article]
    Excellent work Bard, nice to see the big picture expected returns so clearly.
    Jun 15 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Get Ready For Liftoff [View article]
    You just gave me a great valuation idea, SODA shall be valued soon! Nice article Krause.
    Jun 15 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Deere: Valuation Of Share Price By DCF And Analysis Of Metrics [View article]
    True, the financing part of DE was a minor headache reading through their 10k, but since the parts are so interconnected; financing is a very important part of their operations, which helps their core business, so I wouldn´t put them as separate economic entities. It does change the leverage ratio and profitability, but since it´s all within the same company, you have to take all the moving parts.
    Jun 15 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Deere: Valuation Of Share Price By DCF And Analysis Of Metrics [View article]
    Ivar: Thanks for pointing it out, the formula was used like that, (ROIC-WACC)= Economic spread, which is 1.8% * Capital Employed =$0.512 billion. The mistake was only on the formula I wrote, not the one I used, thanks for reading.
    Jun 15 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Thanks sandy, much appreciated. It´s almost done and a lot more complete. It´s about DE.
    Jun 14 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    I´m aware of that, and I suggest selling when it gets to that level, short at that level is very risky. Shorting should be done when DE is above $115, the top it hasn´t been able to maintain twice.
    Jun 14 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    I´m going to include many more indicators in my next analysis, which is DE, don´t get dizzy but they are, so far:

    Current Price
    Share Value w/DCF Valuation

    EBITDA (in billions)
    Company Value w/EBITDAx7
    Share Value with EBITDA x 7

    Graham Formula Share Value
    P/E
    Price/Sales
    Price/Sales Ratio
    EV/Sales
    Current EPS
    EPS for next year
    EPS growth
    FCF to Sales
    Earnings Yield
    Price/Book
    ROIC
    CROIC (4 year average)
    ROE (last 4 years avg.)
    ROA (last 4 year avg.)
    Liquidity: Current Ratio
    Liquidity: Acid-Test Ratio

    Capital Structure: Total Debt/Assets

    Capital Structure: Long-Term Debt/Assets

    Working with EVA and others too, can´t wait.
    Jun 14 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood in the water: As confusion reigns over Navistar (NAV -1.8%) over whether the company will ever be able to produce a compliant market ready engine technology, Herb Greenberg notes something has to give. Management has a shorter leash than ever with Carl Icahn snapping up shares, while the sharp selloff has would-be-acquirers crunching the numbers to see just how bad the company's pension and warranty obligations look. [View news story]
    Can´t wait to get my hands on their 10k.
    Jun 14 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Certainly:
    1) Revenue growth was assumed at 19% for 2012, -10% for 2013, 21% for 2014, 15% for 2015, 11% and then 10% for 2017.
    The profit margins were pretty constant around 27% for the 5 years analyzed, so I kept them and substracted 1% each year to "punish" the price.
    The CAPEX growth factor was slowed by 3% each year, the long-term sustained growth was assumed at 3%, the discount factor was the 10% WACC that the company says it has.
    Terminal value adds the $38 billion in current assets at the end of 2011, NPV of company assets was $66 billion.
    Cash flows for DE from 2012 to 2017 were relatively on the positive side: 5.8, 6.5, 8.0, 9.8 and 8.3 billion each year, can be modified, when modified to 5.0, 5.8, 3.0, 3.5, 7.0 and 8.3 cash flow per year, it gave me an $88.96 valuation.

    2) The 8.5 on the formula was the P/E of another stock, it´s meant to be replaced by the company´s P/E.

    3) True, I saw that and am only keeping the other 3 metrics for my next analysis, also adding many other I think are very useful for comparison purposes in the sector.
    Jun 14 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Thanks Skizz & bajj, those will be valued in the following weeks.
    Jun 14 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Thanks Ron, any suggestions for stocks to get valued next? Next on my list is DE, then CRM & LNKD.
    Jun 14 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund: Not Necessarily The Best Dollar Play [View article]
    Good breakdown of why UUP is not the best long-dollar bet.
    Jun 13 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let 'Best Market Days' Mantra Derail Your Tactical Investing [View article]
    Excellent article, and the "missing the best day" propaganda is very extensive, best advice for investors would be: if there´s a bear market (-15% is fine for me), sell your stocks and wait for much better entry points, even if you miss the best days, wait for the rug-pull and buy when nobody wants to buy, we´re months away IMO, only time will tell if there´ll be a plunge or just a head-fake.
    Jun 11 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan on what may be a Spanish bank bailout request this weekend: "A banking support package (will be) a stepping stone to a broader package of support for  Spain" by summer's end, i.e. Spain will be in the same ship as Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. Meanwhile, would a Spanish rescue overwhelm the EU rescue funds?  [View news story]
    Nothing less than 300 billion euros will be effective. 40 billion bailout will be like trying to knock down an elephant with a feather.
    Jun 9 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Trading Plan For A $10,000 Summer Portfolio Using Options [View article]
    TEF is right now above its fibonacci pivot @12.08, a close above that is very bullish, it also indicates TEF will go for the next pivot @13.86, there´s still time to buy.
    Jun 8 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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