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Ricardo Espinosa  

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  • Blood in the water: As confusion reigns over Navistar (NAV -1.8%) over whether the company will ever be able to produce a compliant market ready engine technology, Herb Greenberg notes something has to give. Management has a shorter leash than ever with Carl Icahn snapping up shares, while the sharp selloff has would-be-acquirers crunching the numbers to see just how bad the company's pension and warranty obligations look. [View news story]
    Can´t wait to get my hands on their 10k.
    Jun 14, 2012. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Certainly:
    1) Revenue growth was assumed at 19% for 2012, -10% for 2013, 21% for 2014, 15% for 2015, 11% and then 10% for 2017.
    The profit margins were pretty constant around 27% for the 5 years analyzed, so I kept them and substracted 1% each year to "punish" the price.
    The CAPEX growth factor was slowed by 3% each year, the long-term sustained growth was assumed at 3%, the discount factor was the 10% WACC that the company says it has.
    Terminal value adds the $38 billion in current assets at the end of 2011, NPV of company assets was $66 billion.
    Cash flows for DE from 2012 to 2017 were relatively on the positive side: 5.8, 6.5, 8.0, 9.8 and 8.3 billion each year, can be modified, when modified to 5.0, 5.8, 3.0, 3.5, 7.0 and 8.3 cash flow per year, it gave me an $88.96 valuation.

    2) The 8.5 on the formula was the P/E of another stock, it´s meant to be replaced by the company´s P/E.

    3) True, I saw that and am only keeping the other 3 metrics for my next analysis, also adding many other I think are very useful for comparison purposes in the sector.
    Jun 14, 2012. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Thanks Skizz & bajj, those will be valued in the following weeks.
    Jun 14, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Share Valuation By 4 Methods [View article]
    Thanks Ron, any suggestions for stocks to get valued next? Next on my list is DE, then CRM & LNKD.
    Jun 14, 2012. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund: Not Necessarily The Best Dollar Play [View article]
    Good breakdown of why UUP is not the best long-dollar bet.
    Jun 13, 2012. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let 'Best Market Days' Mantra Derail Your Tactical Investing [View article]
    Excellent article, and the "missing the best day" propaganda is very extensive, best advice for investors would be: if there´s a bear market (-15% is fine for me), sell your stocks and wait for much better entry points, even if you miss the best days, wait for the rug-pull and buy when nobody wants to buy, we´re months away IMO, only time will tell if there´ll be a plunge or just a head-fake.
    Jun 11, 2012. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan on what may be a Spanish bank bailout request this weekend: "A banking support package (will be) a stepping stone to a broader package of support for  Spain" by summer's end, i.e. Spain will be in the same ship as Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. Meanwhile, would a Spanish rescue overwhelm the EU rescue funds?  [View news story]
    Nothing less than 300 billion euros will be effective. 40 billion bailout will be like trying to knock down an elephant with a feather.
    Jun 9, 2012. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Trading Plan For A $10,000 Summer Portfolio Using Options [View article]
    TEF is right now above its fibonacci pivot @12.08, a close above that is very bullish, it also indicates TEF will go for the next pivot @13.86, there´s still time to buy.
    Jun 8, 2012. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    Macro: Gold has attempted to rally, but until it breaks above its 50wma, GLD is technically still bearish, if it does go above 163.10, equities will follow in a few weeks after that. However, I don´t think this decline in equities and gold is over, because if it were, the dip to buy is too shallow for me, I like my risk/reward rigged.
    Jun 6, 2012. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    Derek, TLT does have a lot more downside than upside, I´d sell my position if I were long, I´m still waiting for higher TLT prices, I find it hard to beleive 130 was the top, I´ll wait until 135 to short (or higher), if it doesn´t come, don´t chase it.
    Jun 6, 2012. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    That´s why the first trade would be to short TLT (or long TBT), if everything goes fine and a REAL plan that the market likes happens, TLT should come back down from 130 to around 110-115 in a month after the resolution is passed, better risk/reward than going long now IMO.
    Jun 5, 2012. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    Not only can GLD go back up, but in fact it´s very likely that it will starting rallying months before equities take the upward slope straight to Uncle Ben´s house.
    Jun 5, 2012. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    Timing sounds about right, in 2008 it took 1 month for the upward explosion, this time is no different, the first trade to come will be shorting TLT, the long SPY trade will have to wait 3-6 months.
    Jun 5, 2012. 12:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    Uncle Ben WILL bend over and print, hope it´s not too soon, so we get a better buying opportunity, stocks going on sale!
    Jun 5, 2012. 12:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Treasuries, Gold And The S&P 500 Are Saying: Houston, We Have A Problem [View article]
    Thanks Ron, hope you enjoyed the history lesson.
    Jun 5, 2012. 12:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
459 Comments
356 Likes