FEMSA - Diversify Into Latin America With Little Risk And Sustained Growth [View article]
I like FMX more because of its diversified business operations, but some KOF would also be a great addition to a long-term portfolio. I would wait for a pullback in KOF because of its price-triple in two years.
14 Charts On Money Supply, Deficits, And Housing Prices [View article]
Very good graphs, interesting to see the real inflation in the U.S. and the Japanese almost falling into deflation by not "printing" much more than 2% per year. Hidden tax on the public should be more visible to everyday people
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
I really hope this company does turn around and your investment goes well, the marketing efforts are going well so far. The problem I see with BB10 is the shares are going up and will continue their way a couple of more bucks with help of short-squeezing, and the higher it goes, the better the sales will have to be to justify the share price. It`s really ok with me if nobody changes their mind, as everyone is free to think whatever they like about the upcoming release of BB10, this is just a DCF exercise to see what the company would need to do in order to justify a $14.29 price tag, which I do expect and hope to follow in January. Many people have and will continue to disagree, and it`s fine with me, there must always be two sides to every trade, I currently have no position and will gladly change my mind if I see BB10 is a smash hit like many people are expecting. Good luck!
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Yes, at this price, short-sellers face the very real risk of a "face-ripping" rally, that´s why I posted the short interest rise. Current share price is not only dangerous for late-coming RIM buyers but also for late-comer short-sellers. That´s why I do not recommend taking a short position until the short interest drops with the share price going up to around $14 or even higher. And when I go short, it will be using call spreads, limiting the risk in my favor, risking no more than $1.8 to earn no less than $2.2 per spread. If somehow the price does not rise, I will be happy doing absolutely nothing about it.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
No problem Wilson, and of course it is possible for RIM to sell even 15 million devices per quarter, but it´s difficult for the company to achieve those numbers again. It would mean a complete turn-around of the dying brand (because most of its users have switched to iOS and Android) and it would probably be the most impressive turn-around of a company I have ever seen. For those who really think the BB10 can revive this company and stop its decline, look to buy the September 2013 calls for $3.45 ($345 per contract). As long as RIMM stays above the trade´s breakeven price of $13.45, you have a profit, and yes, the upside is a lot higher than the downside right now. I will still be waiting for RIMM to reach $14 to sell September 2013 $10/$14 call spreads for no less than $2.2 per contract (they are currently around $1.6 per contract).
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
In my "business as usual" scenario, I expect an average of around 10.3 million devices to be sold per quarter in fiscal 2014, I had it in my article but must have deleted it in the final version for no good reason. What did stay was the "optimistic" scenario, where around 12.7 million devices would be sold per quarter on average. More devices may be sold, but I do think the average selling price would have to come down (negating most of the higher volume with lower selling prices) with BB10 discounts, which RIM must definitely do if it wants to regain some of its lost market share and ultimately get more subscribers, not only sell more devices.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
The company as an entity in the three scenarios is worth: $3.94 billion in the "business as usual" scenario, $7.49 billion in the "optimistic" scenario and $3.47 in the "negative" scenario, the per-share value just divides the Company´s discounted cash flows at present value (not the assets or a sum-of-parts analysis, but the power of RIM to generate cash flows) by the number of shares outstanding.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
It´s dangerous to bet on a company that has been losing brand loyalty left and right, and I will sell call spreads for June or December 2013, currently looking at strike prices and waiting for another short-squeeze to do it. Outright put-buying is way too expensive because of the time premium.
Gold gets a downgrade at Goldman Sachs, the firm lowering its 2013 end-of-year price forecast to $1,800/oz., and 2014 to $1,750. "We see growing downside risks ... the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in U.S. real rates on better U.S. economic growth." [View news story]
Silver also downgraded by Fitch to BBB- from AAA on massive long-term debt increase, high payroll costs and market share loss to its competitor: "Gold".
Profiting With Apple Weekly Options: Week 3 [View article]
I also see the risk this week to the upside so far, but I want to see first if AAPL crosses above 596.58, its 50dma, which should help rocket the stock above 600 and make me sell 600/595 weekly put spreads, b ut so far it hasn´t broken that level, so I´ll keep watching for a rejection of breakthrough of that level before placing the trade.
Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
FEMSA - Diversify Into Latin America With Little Risk And Sustained Growth [View article]
I would wait for a pullback in KOF because of its price-triple in two years.
14 Charts On Money Supply, Deficits, And Housing Prices [View article]
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
The problem I see with BB10 is the shares are going up and will continue their way a couple of more bucks with help of short-squeezing, and the higher it goes, the better the sales will have to be to justify the share price.
It`s really ok with me if nobody changes their mind, as everyone is free to think whatever they like about the upcoming release of BB10, this is just a DCF exercise to see what the company would need to do in order to justify a $14.29 price tag, which I do expect and hope to follow in January.
Many people have and will continue to disagree, and it`s fine with me, there must always be two sides to every trade, I currently have no position and will gladly change my mind if I see BB10 is a smash hit like many people are expecting.
Good luck!
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Current share price is not only dangerous for late-coming RIM buyers but also for late-comer short-sellers.
That´s why I do not recommend taking a short position until the short interest drops with the share price going up to around $14 or even higher.
And when I go short, it will be using call spreads, limiting the risk in my favor, risking no more than $1.8 to earn no less than $2.2 per spread.
If somehow the price does not rise, I will be happy doing absolutely nothing about it.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
For those who really think the BB10 can revive this company and stop its decline, look to buy the September 2013 calls for $3.45 ($345 per contract). As long as RIMM stays above the trade´s breakeven price of $13.45, you have a profit, and yes, the upside is a lot higher than the downside right now.
I will still be waiting for RIMM to reach $14 to sell September 2013 $10/$14 call spreads for no less than $2.2 per contract (they are currently around $1.6 per contract).
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
What did stay was the "optimistic" scenario, where around 12.7 million devices would be sold per quarter on average.
More devices may be sold, but I do think the average selling price would have to come down (negating most of the higher volume with lower selling prices) with BB10 discounts, which RIM must definitely do if it wants to regain some of its lost market share and ultimately get more subscribers, not only sell more devices.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
$3.94 billion in the "business as usual" scenario, $7.49 billion in the "optimistic" scenario and $3.47 in the "negative" scenario, the per-share value just divides the Company´s discounted cash flows at present value (not the assets or a sum-of-parts analysis, but the power of RIM to generate cash flows) by the number of shares outstanding.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Outright put-buying is way too expensive because of the time premium.
Gold gets a downgrade at Goldman Sachs, the firm lowering its 2013 end-of-year price forecast to $1,800/oz., and 2014 to $1,750. "We see growing downside risks ... the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in U.S. real rates on better U.S. economic growth." [View news story]
Profiting With Apple Weekly Options: Week 3 [View article]