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Ricardo Espinosa

 
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  • Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
    Exactly, I was trying to make the point that even under my most optimistic scenario-the company´s real expected growth rate- even with the rosiest of scenarios, a price above $170 is not justified.

    If you´re going to play this short stock, calls or long puts, be careful with the expiration dates, because the market can remain irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent.
    Jan 24 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
    Of course, I love valuating stocks, there´s a list before that but follow me and I will eventually publish Netsuite´s valuation.
    Jan 24 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
    I don´t mind losing 1k to make 6k if the world wakes up to the reality of the stock valuation, it has happened to GMCR, NFLX, CMG and other overvalued stocks, most recently AAPL.
    Jan 24 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
    It´s an online broker called OptionsXpress, its website is optionsxpress.com, it´s a good software and has mobile apps, so you can trade on your smartphone, check out comissions because I think it´s one of the most expensive ones.
    Jan 24 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
    RAX will be on my list, I think NFLX is next up first though.
    Jan 24 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FEMSA - Diversify Into Latin America With Little Risk And Sustained Growth [View article]
    I like FMX more because of its diversified business operations, but some KOF would also be a great addition to a long-term portfolio.
    I would wait for a pullback in KOF because of its price-triple in two years.
    Jan 21 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 Charts On Money Supply, Deficits, And Housing Prices [View article]
    Very good graphs, interesting to see the real inflation in the U.S. and the Japanese almost falling into deflation by not "printing" much more than 2% per year. Hidden tax on the public should be more visible to everyday people
    Jan 3 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    "Backward-looking analysis"...You forgot that I have recently returned from the future and have incorporated my findings into this analysis.
    Dec 31 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    Read the following line, it says it had 79 million users as of the end of Q3. Thanks for trying to read.
    Dec 28 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    I really hope this company does turn around and your investment goes well, the marketing efforts are going well so far.
    The problem I see with BB10 is the shares are going up and will continue their way a couple of more bucks with help of short-squeezing, and the higher it goes, the better the sales will have to be to justify the share price.
    It`s really ok with me if nobody changes their mind, as everyone is free to think whatever they like about the upcoming release of BB10, this is just a DCF exercise to see what the company would need to do in order to justify a $14.29 price tag, which I do expect and hope to follow in January.
    Many people have and will continue to disagree, and it`s fine with me, there must always be two sides to every trade, I currently have no position and will gladly change my mind if I see BB10 is a smash hit like many people are expecting.
    Good luck!
    Dec 28 02:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    Your name is Ron, but thanks for trying.
    Dec 27 10:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    I really hope that happens, and if it really is all I need in my pocket, I`ll be the first in line. It`s the least it can do after so many delays.
    Dec 27 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    Yes, at this price, short-sellers face the very real risk of a "face-ripping" rally, that´s why I posted the short interest rise.
    Current share price is not only dangerous for late-coming RIM buyers but also for late-comer short-sellers.
    That´s why I do not recommend taking a short position until the short interest drops with the share price going up to around $14 or even higher.
    And when I go short, it will be using call spreads, limiting the risk in my favor, risking no more than $1.8 to earn no less than $2.2 per spread.
    If somehow the price does not rise, I will be happy doing absolutely nothing about it.
    Dec 27 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    No problem Wilson, and of course it is possible for RIM to sell even 15 million devices per quarter, but it´s difficult for the company to achieve those numbers again. It would mean a complete turn-around of the dying brand (because most of its users have switched to iOS and Android) and it would probably be the most impressive turn-around of a company I have ever seen.
    For those who really think the BB10 can revive this company and stop its decline, look to buy the September 2013 calls for $3.45 ($345 per contract). As long as RIMM stays above the trade´s breakeven price of $13.45, you have a profit, and yes, the upside is a lot higher than the downside right now.
    I will still be waiting for RIMM to reach $14 to sell September 2013 $10/$14 call spreads for no less than $2.2 per contract (they are currently around $1.6 per contract).
    Dec 27 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
    In my "business as usual" scenario, I expect an average of around 10.3 million devices to be sold per quarter in fiscal 2014, I had it in my article but must have deleted it in the final version for no good reason.
    What did stay was the "optimistic" scenario, where around 12.7 million devices would be sold per quarter on average.
    More devices may be sold, but I do think the average selling price would have to come down (negating most of the higher volume with lower selling prices) with BB10 discounts, which RIM must definitely do if it wants to regain some of its lost market share and ultimately get more subscribers, not only sell more devices.
    Dec 27 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
452 Comments
348 Likes